Miss P Elvin
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.16). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 9% off breaks of two months or more (32 runs). Rides mostly for P J Rothwell — 90% of rides in the window.
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 9.4% (n=32, Fair A/E 1.90). P J Rothwell supplies 90% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (6.2%, A/E 1.17) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Hurdle races (10%, n=70) and off a 15-30-day break (10.5%, n=38). The market has also underrated the rider on Soft going: Fair A/E 1.60 across 70 rides (8.6% strike, +18.38 to a £1 stake). The market has consistently overbet the rider in NH Flat races: Fair A/E 0.81 across 58 rides (3.4% strike, −18.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.2% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2013→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 255 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 255 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 10 March 2013 to 22 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 8 Oct 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 8 Oct 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
- What is Miss P Elvin's strike rate?
- Miss P Elvin has won 10 of 161 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.2% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which yard does Miss P Elvin ride most for?
- P J Rothwell, with 145 rides since 2022 — 90% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (6.2%).
- What is Miss P Elvin's Fair A/E?
- 1.16, from 161 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.