Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 8.1%First rides: 6.8%Claiming: 7.4%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.3% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
6.8%+0.5
n=73 · A/E 0.97 · £1 +13.60
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−6.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
8.1%+1.8
n=37 · A/E 1.57 · £1 +41.60
When favourite
16.7%
n=6 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −4.20
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
7.4%+1.1
n=68 · A/E 0.91 · £1 +15.90
Big fields · 14+ runners
6.1%−0.2
n=49 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +28.60
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)3738.1%+40.60
Soft2913.4%−13.00
Good to Soft2314.3%−21.20
Good300%−3.00
Heavy3133.3%+0.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR)2627.7%+39.30
Deauville (FR)1815.6%−5.70
Saint-Cloud (FR)1119.1%−9.20
Longchamp (FR)900%−9.00
Marseille Pont-de-Vivaux (FR)800%−8.00
Salon-de-Provence (FR)6116.7%+9.00
Vichy (FR)600%−6.00
Marseille Borely (FR)500%−5.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)4125%−0.50
Hyeres (FR)100%—
Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 48112.5%+7.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6116.7%0.57−4.20
2nd–3rd fav9111.1%0.69−5.50
4th–6th fav2015%0.65−7.70
7th+ in betting5935.1%1.48+21.30
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f3226.3%+35.00
1m2f – 1m4f2800%−27.00
6f – 7f28414.3%+2.90
1m5f – 2m400%−4.00
Under 6f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20223133.3%+10.30
20233026.7%+24.80
20241317.7%−0.70
20252514%−21.50
20262414.2%−9.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps6434.7%+13.60
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners3837.9%+39.60
11-13 runners2214.5%−7.00
8-10 runners1700%−17.00
17+ runners1100%−11.00
5-7 runners6233.3%−0.70
2-4 runners100%—
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 73 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0170250006121000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,999 runs since 2008 (1,509 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 482. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,848 runs since 2008 (416 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 189. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 15.5% from 142.
Progeny have won 6.9% of 347 runs since 2008 (37 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 98 · newest first
The latest 50 of 98 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 May 2020 to 12 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mme Manon Germain's strike rate?
Mme Manon Germain has won 6 of 95 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Mme Manon Germain in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mme Manon Germain's Fair A/E?
0.89, from 94 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mme Manon Germain·SR 6.3%·A/E 0.89
KTB
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