Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 10 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.47). Rides mostly for Sue Smith — 53% of rides in the window.
Deterministic profile computed from 111 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceSue Smith: 5.1% from 59First rides: 3%Claiming: 2.8%
The read
The market has consistently overbetclaiming rides: 2.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.49 and −79.00 to a £1 stake over 106 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Sue Smith supplies 53% of the rides and edges the rider's average (5.1% vs 2.7%, A/E 0.64). The rider also reads well on Good going (6.3%, n=32) and over 2m5f – 3m (6.3%, n=32).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.7% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
3%+0.3
n=67 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −53.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−2.7
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−2.7
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
2.8%+0.1
n=106 · A/E 0.49 · £1 −79.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
3.6%+0.9
n=55 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −33.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Good going6.3% vs 2.7% · n=32
Over 2m5f – 3m6.3% vs 2.7% · n=32
With Sue Smith5.1% vs 2.7% · n=59
In Class 40% vs 2.7% · n=33
In Hurdle races4.8% vs 2.7% · n=42
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase4512.2%−32.00
Hurdle4224.8%−28.00
NH Flat2000%−20.00
Flat400%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft4312.3%−38.00
Good3226.3%−10.00
Good to Soft1900%−19.00
Heavy1200%−12.00
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Firm100%−1.00
Standard (AW)100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown1300%−13.00
Sedgefield800%−8.00
Catterick800%−8.00
Market Rasen700%−7.00
Uttoxeter700%−7.00
Wetherby700%−7.00
Cork400%−4.00
Southwell4125%+5.00
Carlisle400%−4.00
Hexham4125%+1.00
Doncaster4125%+9.00
Newcastle300%−3.00
Huntingdon300%−3.00
Naas300%−3.00
Downpatrick300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 43300%−33.00
Class 31616.3%−3.00
Class 511218.2%+3.00
Class 2400%−4.00
Class 6400%−4.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav1200%0.00−12.00
4th–6th fav2627.7%0.96−12.00
7th+ in betting7011.4%0.48−57.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f3412.9%−29.00
2m5f – 3m3226.3%−10.00
1m5f – 2m2800%−28.00
Over 3m1500%−15.00
1m2f – 1m4f100%−1.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20085535.5%−28.00
20093200%−32.00
20101300%−13.00
2011500%−5.00
2012400%−4.00
2013100%−1.00
2024100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5024%−28.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners3026.7%−8.00
17+ runners2500%−25.00
11-13 runners2414.2%−19.00
8-10 runners2400%−24.00
5-7 runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 71 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00000·0001106
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
6
Archived wins
£76,195
Prize money
2008
Best season · 3 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,724 runs since 2008 (338 horses).
Nomadic Way (USA)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 9.8% of 799 runs since 2008 (70 horses).
SADDLER'S HALL (IRE)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).
Deep Society (GB)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 0% of 17 runs since 2008 (1 horse). A small sample.
Komaite (USA)25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 10.1% of 447 runs since 2008 (27 horses).
Rainbow Quest (USA)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 10% of 1,384 runs since 2008 (113 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.1% from 230.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 211 · newest first
The latest 50 of 211 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 March 2005 to 31 August 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr A E Kinirons's strike rate?
Mr A E Kinirons has won 3 of 111 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 2.7% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Mr A E Kinirons ride most for?
Sue Smith, with 59 rides since 2008 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (5.1%).
What is Mr A E Kinirons's Fair A/E?
0.47, from 111 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr A E Kinirons·SR 2.7%·A/E 0.47
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