Skip to content
Jockey profile

Mr M J Doran

187 rides in the lifetime window · 110 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride May 2012 92% of rides over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
10–187
Wins / Runs
5.3%
Strike rate
n=187
36 (19%)
Placed
0.83
Fair A/E
n=187 · 0.60 incl. margin
−86.58
£1 level stake
n=187 at SP · −46.3%
£114k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 40 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.83). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 9% off breaks of two months or more (35 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 187 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 8.6% Claiming: 5.5%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 8.6% (n=35, Fair A/E 1.29). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 2.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.59 and −53.38 to a £1 stake over 108 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. The record read poorly on Good going — 0% over 33 rides, 5.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.49 across 63 rides (3.2% strike, −34.62 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.3% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
2.8%−2.5
n=108 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −53.38
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
12.5%+7.2
n=8 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −6.33
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
8.6%+3.3
n=35 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −0.75
When favourite
50%
n=10 · A/E 1.73 · £1 +2.67
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
5.5%+0.2
n=182 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −81.58
Big fields · 14+ runners
4.4%−0.9
n=135 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −86.45
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.3
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With horses switching code 11.1% vs 5.3% · n=36
On Good going 0% vs 5.3% · n=33
With Paul Nolan 2.2% vs 5.3% · n=46
On first rides for the horse 2.8% vs 5.3% · n=108
Off a 31-60-day break 2.8% vs 5.3% · n=36
On Soft going 3.2% vs 5.3% · n=63
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
NH Flat 104 6 5.8% −41.00
Hurdle 50 2 4% −27.33
Chase 18 1 5.6% −14.25
Flat 15 1 6.7% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 63 2 3.2% −34.62
Heavy 55 4 7.3% −26.33
Good 33 0 0% −33.00
Good to Firm 16 2 12.5% +12.62
Good to Soft 11 1 9.1% +0.00
Firm 8 1 12.5% −4.25
Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 26 0 0% −26.00
Navan 17 1 5.9% −15.33
Wexford 16 2 12.5% +12.38
Fairyhouse 15 0 0% −15.00
Limerick 15 0 0% −15.00
Cork 13 1 7.7% +13.00
Gowran Park 12 0 0% −12.00
Leopardstown 8 1 12.5% +13.00
Downpatrick 7 1 14.3% −4.38
Naas 7 1 14.3% −4.75
Kilbeggan 6 1 16.7% −2.25
Tipperary 6 0 0% −6.00
Listowel 6 0 0% −6.00
Galway 5 0 0% −5.00
Down Royal 4 1 25% −0.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 6 0 0% −6.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 12 5 41.7% 1.53 +0.67
2nd–3rd fav 21 1 4.8% 0.34 −17.25
4th–6th fav 48 1 2.1% 0.32 −37.00
7th+ in betting 106 3 2.8% 1.09 −33.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
77.9% completed · 68 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 18 50% 1 1 7 0 0
Hurdle 50 88% 0 1 5 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Alice Bradys Call (USA) 9 1 4 11 Dec 09
Sotally Tober (IRE) 9 0 1 27 Nov 09
Mighty John Mcgee (IRE) 8 1 4 20 Aug 10
Thegreatjohnbrowne (IRE) 5 2 2 23 Apr 10
Mattara (IRE) 4 0 1 14 Jan 12
Cullenstownstrand (IRE) 4 0 0 2 Jul 10
Kymandjen (IRE) 4 0 0 1 Jan 09
Darraghs Day (IRE) 3 0 0 22 Jan 12
Alf Wright (IRE) 3 0 0 19 Aug 11
Skiboski (FR) 3 0 1 25 Jan 11
Gala Dancer (IRE) 3 0 1 3 Apr 10
Gleanntan (IRE) 3 0 3 8 Nov 09
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 110 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
07604601700815
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardPaul Nolan
25% of all rides
2.2% SR · A/E 0.26
TrainerRWSR£1
Paul Nolan 46 1 2.2% −43.62
Miss Martina Anne Doran 41 3 7.3% −5.25
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
14
Archived wins
£151k
Prize money
2008
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Chateau d'Eau (FR) — Archie Watson Memorial Inh Flat Race Down Royal · Nov 2007
£10,365
Ned Of The Hill (IRE) — Bord na Mona Clean Energy Handicap Hurdle (81-116) Leopardstown · Dec 2010
£8,625
Cottage Oak (IRE) — Killetra (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race Cork (IRE) · Nov 2007
£8,292
Notable horses
Thegreatjohnbrowne (IRE) Cottage Oak (IRE) Alice Bradys Call (USA) Mighty John Mcgee (IRE) Honorary Title (IRE) Spencer's Hill (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Rashar (USA) 9.1% · 1–11
Progeny have won 6.3% of 997 runs since 2008 (122 horses). Strongest on Good going: 10.4% from 251. Weakest on Heavy going: 2.7% from 219.
Beneficial (GB) 20% · 2–10
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Tamayaz (CAN) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 5.4% of 772 runs since 2008 (80 horses).
Theatrical (IRE) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 13.7% of 636 runs since 2008 (47 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 25% from 164. Weakest on Good going: 10% from 160.
Ashkalani (IRE) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 7.3% of 519 runs since 2008 (56 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 12.4% from 129. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.7% from 111.
Carroll House (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 6.2% of 1,033 runs since 2008 (133 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 220 · newest first

The latest 50 of 220 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 26 February 2005 to 5 May 2012.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
05 May 12 Limerick Master Oisin (IRE)T: Miss Martina Anne Doran June 16th & 22nd Twilight Racing Maiden Hurdle18f · Good · 17 ran 13th 25/1
22 Jan 12 Fairyhouse Darraghs Day (IRE)T: Miss Martina Anne Doran Fairyhouse Schooling Races Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 16 ran 11th 66/1
14 Jan 12 Punchestown Mattara (IRE)T: Edward C Kelly Marathon Travel City Centre Raceday Bus To Punchestown (pro/am) Flat Race16f · Soft To Heavy · 6 ran 5th 20/1
11 Jan 12 Fairyhouse Darraghs Day (IRE)T: Miss Martina Anne Doran Racegoer's Package 25 Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft To Heavy · 16 ran 10th 33/1
30 Oct 11 Wexford Darraghs Day (IRE)T: Miss Martina Anne Doran Casey Concrete Gorey Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 16 ran 6th 16/1
19 Aug 11 Kilbeggan Alf Wright (IRE)T: Kevin F O'Donnell Shureen Flat Race19f · Yielding · 15 ran 7th 13/2
01 Jul 11 Wexford Alf Wright (IRE)T: Kevin F O'Donnell Campile Flat Race18f · Good · 16 ran 8th 6/1
19 Jun 11 Gowran Park Alf Wright (IRE)T: Kevin F O'Donnell Joe Bollard Memorial Flat Race20f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 4th 20/1
06 Jun 11 Listowel Oso Crafty (IRE)T: Mrs Louise Parkhill Listowel Whit Weekend Flat Race20f · Good · 12 ran 10th 66/1
20 May 11 Wexford Pipelineannie (IRE)T: John A White Borro Mares Flat Race16f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 15th 25/1
06 May 11 Punchestown Super Generous (GB)T: Paul Nolan Irish Thoroughbred Breeders Association Fillies Scheme Fillies Premier Bumper17f · Good · 25 ran 13th 33/1
27 Mar 11 Downpatrick Mattara (IRE)T: Edward C Kelly Ballynoe (pro/am) Flat Race18f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 33/1
17 Mar 11 Wexford Super Generous (GB)T: Paul Nolan Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Mares Flat Race16f · Soft · 10 ran 5th 8/1
27 Feb 11 Leopardstown Baile Fearainn (IRE)T: Miss Martina Anne Doran Killiney (pro/am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 25/1
19 Feb 11 Gowran Park Mattara (IRE)T: Edward C Kelly Rockview (Q.R.) Flat Race17f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 10th 33/1
10 Feb 11 Thurles Canadian Diamond (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Fethard Flat Race16f · Heavy · 12 ran 4th 5/1
30 Jan 11 Punchestown Mattara (IRE)T: Edward C Kelly Rockview (Q.R.) Flat Race16f · Soft · 15 ran 6th 50/1
26 Jan 11 Limerick Johnsons Coat (IRE)T: Paul Nolan Adare Mares Flat Race16f · Heavy · 18 ran 16th 16/1
25 Jan 11 Navan Skiboski (FR)T: Paul Nolan Trim Flat Race16f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 5/1
09 Jan 11 Leopardstown Baile Fearainn (IRE)T: Miss Martina Anne Doran www.leopardstown.com (pro/am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 10 ran 5th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Mr M J Doran's strike rate?
Mr M J Doran has won 10 of 187 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mr M J Doran's Fair A/E?
0.83, from 187 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).