No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
2.1%−3.3
n=47 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −21.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−5.4
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
4.8%−0.6
n=21 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
5.4%+0.0
n=92 · A/E 1.10 · £1 +17.33
Big fields · 14+ runners
5.5%+0.1
n=55 · A/E 1.46 · £1 +17.33
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With debutants0% vs 5.4% · n=32
On first rides for the horse2.1% vs 5.4% · n=47
On Soft going2.6% vs 5.4% · n=38
With Peter Casey7.5% vs 5.4% · n=40
Over 1m5f – 2m3.6% vs 5.4% · n=55 · A/E 0.83
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
NH Flat6546.2%+33.33
Flat1600%−16.00
Hurdle1119.1%+0.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft3812.6%−12.00
Good1700%−17.00
Heavy12216.7%+3.33
Good to Firm900%−9.00
Good to Soft9111.1%+8.00
Standard (AW)5120%+46.00
Firm200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Down Royal900%−9.00
Fairyhouse900%−9.00
Punchestown600%−6.00
Ballinrobe6116.7%+20.00
Bellewstown600%−6.00
Galway600%−6.00
Leopardstown600%−6.00
Roscommon500%−5.00
Navan5120%+6.00
Downpatrick500%−5.00
Dundalk (AW)4125%+47.00
Naas400%−4.00
Limerick4125%+13.00
Sligo3133.3%+1.33
Gowran Park300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite300%0.00−3.00
2nd–3rd fav7114.3%0.94−2.67
4th–6th fav18211.1%1.77+10.00
7th+ in betting6423.1%1.11+13.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m5523.6%−24.67
2m1f – 2m4f3026.7%+38.00
2m5f – 3m4125%+7.00
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
6f – 7f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200825312%+41.33
20092100%−21.00
20101100%−11.00
20111000%−10.00
2012700%−7.00
20131715.9%+9.00
201411100%+16.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1200%−12.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
17+ runners3226.3%+36.00
11-13 runners2613.8%−15.00
14-16 runners2314.3%−18.67
8-10 runners9111.1%+17.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 52 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
001418800002000
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
6
Archived wins
£75,514
Prize money
2008
Best season · 3 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Jack The Bus (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Novice Hurdle Navan (IRE) · Mar 2008
£19,530
Charlies First (IRE) — O'Callaghan Family Hotels (QR) Handicap (50-80) Listowel · Sep 2006
£10,365
Inch Rebel (IRE) — European Mortgages INH Flat Race Dundalk (AW) · Oct 2008
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,724 runs since 2008 (338 horses).
Desert King (IRE)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 9% of 1,142 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.4% from 157.
Old Vic (GB)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 11.7% of 6,916 runs since 2008 (630 horses).
Lahib (USA)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,699 runs since 2008 (176 horses).
Anshan (GB)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 9.6% of 4,216 runs since 2008 (387 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 520.
Bob's Return (IRE)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 8.5% of 2,268 runs since 2008 (219 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.8% from 254.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 162 · newest first
The latest 50 of 162 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 27 April 2014.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr P J Casey's strike rate?
Mr P J Casey has won 5 of 92 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Mr P J Casey's Fair A/E?
1.10, from 92 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr P J Casey·SR 5.4%·A/E 1.10
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