What is Peter Casey's strike rate?

Peter Casey has won 58 of 797 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Peter Casey do best at?

Navan by strike rate: 9 wins from 65 runners (13.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Peter Casey?

Oliver Casey, with 174 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (4.6%).

What is Peter Casey's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 796 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Peter Casey

797 runners in the lifetime window · 72 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Nov 2017

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

58–797

Wins / Runs

7.3%

Strike rate

n=797

184 (23%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=796 · 0.80 incl. margin

−333.88

£1 level stake

n=797 at SP · −41.9%

£945k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.7%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 80 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06).

Deterministic profile computed from 797 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Mar–Apr 30.2% when favourite Oliver Casey: 4.6% from 174 Sent off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

Debutants struggle at 0% (n=47, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −246.25 to a £1 stake over 486 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Oliver Casey rode 22% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (4.6% vs 7.3%, A/E 0.86). The yard also read well in Chase races (16.5%, n=85) and on Heavy going (14.1%, n=78). The market has also underrated the yard over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 1.48 across 145 runners (13.1% strike, +5.26 to a £1 stake). 13 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the EBF Noblesse Stakes at Cork (Jun 2006, £65,000). The stable star of the record was Flemenstar (IRE) — 8 wins from 14 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.1%−2.2

n=138 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −74.59

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−7.3

n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−7.3

n=47 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −47.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4%−3.3

n=25 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −19.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

2.5%−4.8

n=40 · A/E 0.40 · £1 −29.00

When favourite

30.2%

n=43 · A/E 1.33 · £1 +0.26

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.5%−2.8

n=486 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −246.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

36.4%+29.1

n=22 · A/E 1.94 · £1 +7.92

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 23.2% vs 7.3% · n=56

With A E Lynch 23.1% vs 7.3% · n=52

In Chase races 16.5% vs 7.3% · n=85

On Heavy going 14.1% vs 7.3% · n=78

Over 2m1f – 2m4f 13.1% vs 7.3% · n=145

With debutants 0% vs 7.3% · n=47

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 463 26 5.6% −249.75

Hurdle 209 15 7.2% −89.25

Chase 85 14 16.5% −27.38

NH Flat 40 3 7.5% +32.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 190 16 8.4% −19.75

Soft 187 7 3.7% −153.84

Good 181 12 6.6% −95.15

Good to Firm 96 5 5.2% −62.00

Heavy 78 11 14.1% −24.14

Good to Soft 53 6 11.3% +18.00

Firm 12 1 8.3% +3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk 189 16 8.5% −18.75

Navan 65 9 13.8% +5.16

Down Royal 63 3 4.8% −36.00

Naas 50 4 8% −22.89

Leopardstown 44 2 4.5% −30.50

Curragh 41 1 2.4% −26.00

Downpatrick 41 4 9.8% −9.50

Fairyhouse 37 4 10.8% −19.90

Limerick 29 4 13.8% +2.00

Bellewstown 27 0 0% −27.00

Punchestown 26 1 3.8% −24.00

Sligo 25 3 12% −10.00

Gowran Park 24 0 0% −24.00

Tipperary 19 0 0% −19.00

Cork 19 1 5.3% −13.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 23 8 34.8% +6.92

Class 6 2 1 50% +2.50

Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 57 18 31.6% 1.42 +4.17

2nd–3rd fav 112 19 17% 1.34 −2.05

4th–6th fav 181 14 7.7% 1.08 −36.00

7th+ in betting 447 7 1.6% 0.47 −300.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Try Freedom (IRE) 49 1 8 14 Mar 14

Rose Angel (IRE) 44 4 18 18 Sep 16

Eight Till Late (IRE)then Francis Casey 43 7 18 11 Nov 17

Desert Ben (IRE) 40 3 14 18 May 12

Hello Humpfrey (IRE) 39 4 6 19 May 17

Monelissio (IRE) 31 1 4 14 Oct 16

Palace Art (IRE) 31 0 3 8 Oct 16

Dotada (IRE)from T Stack 31 4 10 23 Nov 12

Brecan Boy (IRE) 30 1 5 9 Dec 16

Inis Ceithleann (IRE) 26 3 8 4 Sep 12

Equation (IRE) 24 1 3 25 Mar 12

Fascinating Paddy (IRE) 21 0 6 21 Apr 11

The 60 most-raced of 72 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Kevin Prendergast (2); 52 had their first archived run for this yard.

20 have since run for another yard, most often for Francis Casey (3) and Mark L Fagan (2); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1771110739533147

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderOliver Casey

22% of all rides
4.6% SR · A/E 0.86

RiderRWSR£1

Oliver Casey 174 8 4.6% −94.50

A E Lynch 52 12 23.1% −6.13

Robbie Downey 46 6 13% +1.00

Mr P J Casey 40 3 7.5% +39.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.90m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 18 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Sina Cova (IRE) — EBF Noblesse Stakes (Group 3 Fillies) Cork · Jun 2006 · Group 3

£65,000

Flemenstar (IRE) — Powers Gold Cup (Grade 1 Novice Chase) Fairyhouse · Apr 2012 · Grade 1

£58,500

Jack The Bus (IRE) — Ladbrokes.com Troytown Handicap Chase (0-150) (Grade B) Navan · Nov 2010 · Grade B

£55,250

Notable horses

Flemenstar (IRE) Eight Till Late (IRE) Charlies First (IRE) Ireland's Call (IRE) Jack The Bus (IRE) Desert Ben (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Lahib (USA) 1.7% · 1–59

Progeny have won 7.6% of 1,699 runs since 2008 (176 horses).

Desert Prince (IRE) 7.7% · 4–52

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,734 runs since 2008 (178 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.6% from 425.

Mull Of Kintyre (USA) 2% · 1–49

Progeny have won 9% of 2,100 runs since 2008 (160 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.2% from 409. Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 306.

Dark Angel (IRE) 9.1% · 4–44

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,841 runs since 2008 (1,593 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Desert King (IRE) 16.3% · 7–43

Progeny have won 9% of 1,142 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.4% from 157.

Hurricane Run (IRE) 10.3% · 4–39

Progeny have won 10.9% of 3,152 runs since 2008 (273 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.8% from 104.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,318 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,318 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 30 January 2005 to 11 November 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

11 Nov 17 Naas Eight Till Late (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)20f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 11th 25/1

09 Nov 17 Thurles Flamingo's Court (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Templemore Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 15 ran 2nd 6/1

07 Nov 17 Fairyhouse Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB)J: A E Lynch Racing On New Years Day 3-y-o Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 15 ran 4th 33/1

03 Nov 17 Down Royal Endless Refrain (IRE)J: Thomas Reilly Killyhevlin Hotel Flat Race16f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 50/1

03 Nov 17 Down Royal Eight Till Late (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Toals Bookmakers Handicap Chase16.5f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 3/1F

26 Oct 17 Thurles Flamingo's Court (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Thurles Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 17 ran 3rd 66/1

19 Oct 17 Punchestown Endless Refrain (IRE)J: Thomas Reilly Punchestown For Events Flat Race16f · Soft · 12 ran PU 14/1

15 Oct 17 Cork Eight Till Late (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Irish Stallion Farms Ebf Rated Novice Chase20f · Yielding To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 16/1

12 Oct 17 Thurles Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB)J: A E Lynch Devils Bit 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 7th 50/1

08 Oct 17 Navan Town Ranger (IRE)J: Andrew Breslin Royal County Handicap (45-65)6f · Soft · 21 ran 11th 20/1

27 Sep 17 Sligo Eight Till Late (IRE)J: Mark Walsh Maddens Bar & Restaurant Handicap Chase17.5f · Heavy · 6 ran 3rd 3/1

22 Sep 17 Dundalk (AW) Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan Bookings At dundalkstadium.com Handicap (45-65)10.5f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 28/1

08 Sep 17 Down Royal Town Ranger (IRE)J: Conor Hoban Weatherbys Handicap (45-65)7f · Soft · 14 ran 8th 14/1

02 Sep 17 Navan Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB)J: Robbie Downey Gormanlough Handicap (45-65) (Div 1)10f · Yielding · 23 ran 14th 25/1

31 Aug 17 Bellewstown Eight Till Late (IRE)J: Andrew Ring At The Races Mullacurry Cup Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 10/1

18 Aug 17 Dundalk (AW) Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan Bar One Racing Telebetting 1800 624 524 Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 50/1

10 Aug 17 Leopardstown Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB)J: Robbie Downey Irish Stallion Farms Ebf Fillies Maiden9f · Good · 13 ran 10th 66/1

09 Aug 17 Sligo Eight Till Late (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Boylesports Handicap Chase (0-123)17.5f · Yielding To Soft · 7 ran 1st 9/4F

22 Jul 17 Gowran Park Ar Eagla Na Heagla (GB)J: Robbie Downey Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden9.5f · Yielding · 17 ran 9th 50/1

16 Jul 17 Sligo Eight Till Late (IRE)J: Andrew Ring Kilcawley Construction Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-123)20.5f · Good · 8 ran 1st 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Peter Casey's strike rate?: Peter Casey has won 58 of 797 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Peter Casey do best at?: Navan by strike rate: 9 wins from 65 runners (13.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Peter Casey?: Oliver Casey, with 174 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (4.6%).
What is Peter Casey's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 796 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.