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Trainer profile

Patrick O Brady

1,113 runners in the lifetime window · 61 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Sep 2014
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
50–1,113
Wins / Runs
4.5%
Strike rate
n=1,113
169 (15%)
Placed
0.88
Fair A/E
n=1,112 · 0.68 incl. margin
−591.84
£1 level stake
n=1,113 at SP · −53.2%
£779k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
3.7%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 160 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.88). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 13% (31 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,113 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fired May–Aug Matthew Bowes: 4.1% from 268 Headgear returns: 12.9% Claiming riders: 5.3%
The read

The record is strongest at Naas (9.1%, n=66) and Kilbeggan (8.8%, n=80) — all clear of the yard's 4.5% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 12.9% (n=31, Fair A/E 3.09), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0.6% (n=154, Fair A/E 0.20). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 3.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.85 and −24.12 to a £1 stake over 103 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Matthew Bowes rode 24% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.1%, A/E 0.80). The yard also read well off a 0-7-day break (8.5%, n=270). The record read poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 86 runners, 4.5pts below the baseline. 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the paddypowerpoker.com Newlands Chase at Naas (Feb 2008, £39,060). The stable star of the record was Imperial Shabra (IRE) — 6 wins from 92 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired May–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0.6%−3.9
n=154 · A/E 0.20 · £1 −144.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.5
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.5
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.5
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
12.9%+8.4
n=31 · A/E 3.09 · £1 +14.00
When favourite
29.4%
n=17 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −3.47
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.3%+0.8
n=683 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −345.72
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
3.9%−0.6
n=103 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −24.12

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With headgear back on 12.9% vs 4.5% · n=31
With A P Heskin 11.1% vs 4.5% · n=36
Off a 0-7-day break 8.5% vs 4.5% · n=270
Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 4.5% · n=86
At Naas 9.1% vs 4.5% · n=66
At Kilbeggan 8.8% vs 4.5% · n=80
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 647 30 4.6% −341.24
Chase 232 8 3.4% −113.00
Flat 175 9 5.1% −98.85
NH Flat 59 3 5.1% −38.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 340 19 5.6% −127.35
Heavy 266 11 4.1% −177.99
Good 211 9 4.3% −84.00
Good to Firm 129 6 4.7% −83.00
Good to Soft 86 3 3.5% −64.50
Standard (AW) 62 2 3.2% −36.00
Firm 19 0 0% −19.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Downpatrick 119 7 5.9% +5.75
Navan 101 1 1% −50.00
Fairyhouse 95 3 3.2% −74.00
Punchestown 94 4 4.3% −72.87
Down Royal 83 3 3.6% −50.00
Kilbeggan 80 7 8.8% −5.50
Naas 66 6 9.1% −9.50
Dundalk (AW) 61 2 3.3% −35.00
Leopardstown 48 0 0% −48.00
Roscommon 46 2 4.3% −32.25
Galway 42 1 2.4% −27.00
Sligo 29 1 3.4% −27.10
Clonmel 28 2 7.1% −19.25
Wexford 26 0 0% −26.00
Gowran Park 25 1 4% −22.62

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 112 4 3.6% −33.12
Class 3 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 4 1 1 100% +3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 20 6 30% 1.30 −3.22
2nd–3rd fav 94 19 20.2% 1.50 +21.88
4th–6th fav 327 19 5.8% 1.01 −116.50
7th+ in betting 672 6 0.9% 0.29 −494.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
89.3% completed · 879 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 232 79.7% 7 8 29 0 3
Hurdle 647 92.7% 8 7 25 3 4
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Imperial Shabra (IRE) 92 6 13 18 Aug 13
Saddler's Native (IRE)from G A Kingston 83 1 13 26 Sep 12
Duroob (GB)from K R Burke · then Anthony McCann 76 4 16 25 Aug 14
Shabra Charity (IRE)then Anthony McCann 74 4 14 6 Sep 14
Shabra Emperor (IRE)then Anthony McCann 68 2 12 4 Sep 14
Flamenco Prince (GB) 62 1 9 14 Jul 14
Takestan (IRE)from John M Oxx 58 3 8 10 Nov 13
Garamor Boy (IRE) 45 1 5 25 Aug 14
One Cool Shabra (IRE)then Anthony McCann 42 6 15 3 Jun 13
Khan Tengri (IRE)from Marcus Tregoning 37 3 7 2 Jun 13
Shabra's Bertolini (IRE)then Anthony McCann 24 1 4 24 Jun 14
Katys Girl (IRE)from B P Galvin · then Mrs Gillian Callaghan 23 1 9 1 Dec 12
The 60 most-raced of 61 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 23 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from B P Galvin (3) and John M Oxx (3); 37 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Anthony McCann (11); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
538076765222
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMatthew Bowes
24% of all rides
4.1% SR · A/E 0.80
RiderRWSR£1
Matthew Bowes 268 11 4.1% −171.50
John Cullen 132 7 5.3% −34.62
Ryan Treacy 108 9 8.3% +29.00
Ger Fox 59 5 8.5% −35.37
Mark Walsh 50 0 0% −50.00
Shane Jackson 41 0 0% −41.00
A P Heskin 36 4 11.1% +3.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
71
Archived wins
5
Pattern / graded wins
£1.15m
Prize money
2012
Best season · 15 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Maralan (IRE) — paddypowerpoker.com Newlands Chase (Grade 2) Naas · Feb 2008 · Grade 2
£39,060
Maralan (IRE) — Kevin McManus Flyingbolt Novice Chase (Grade 2) Navan · Feb 2008 · Grade 2
£32,550
Baron De Feypo (IRE) — Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle Naas · Oct 2005 · Grade C
£26,040
Notable horses
Imperial Shabra (IRE) Maralan (IRE) One Cool Shabra (IRE) Duroob (GB) Baron De Feypo (IRE) Shabra Charity (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Imperial Ballet (IRE) 6.5% · 6–92
Progeny have won 7.2% of 1,342 runs since 2008 (99 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.2% from 245. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 150.
Bahhare (USA) 4.5% · 4–89
Progeny have won 9.2% of 1,314 runs since 2008 (86 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 5.9% from 202.
Rudimentary (USA) 4.8% · 4–83
Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,114 runs since 2008 (201 horses).
Saddlers' Hall (IRE) 1.2% · 1–83
Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).
Royal Applause (GB) 1.3% · 1–79
Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.
Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 2.9% · 2–68
Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,862 runs since 2008 (948 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,568 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,568 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 January 2005 to 6 September 2014.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Sep 14 Navan Shabra Charity (IRE)J: Jonathan Moore Kells Handicap Hurdle (80-102)20f · Good · 18 ran 11th 50/1
04 Sep 14 Laytown (AW) Shabra Emperor (IRE)J: Mark Enright Tote Mobile Betting Handicap (50-70)6f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 12/1
25 Aug 14 Downpatrick Duroob (GB)J: Mark Bolger Willie Murphy Jewellers, Downpatrick Handicap Hurdle (80-95)23f · Good · 14 ran 9th 9/1
25 Aug 14 Downpatrick Garamor Boy (IRE)J: A E Lynch Willie Murphy Jewellers, Downpatrick Handicap Hurdle (80-95)23f · Good · 14 ran 7th 25/1
25 Aug 14 Downpatrick Shabra Charity (IRE)J: Mark Bolger Al Aasfa Best Dressed Lady Win A Trip To Meydan Races Dubai Handicap Hurdle (80-116)21.5f · Good · 11 ran 7th 20/1
22 Aug 14 Kilbeggan Shabra Charity (IRE)J: Matthew Bowes Tullamore Handicap Chase (0-109)25f · Good · 13 ran PU 25/1
22 Aug 14 Kilbeggan Duroob (GB)J: Mark Bolger Tullamore Handicap Chase (0-109)25f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 16/1
22 Aug 14 Kilbeggan Garamor Boy (IRE)J: Matthew Bowes FRS Recruitment Beginners Chase25f · Good · 9 ran 5th 66/1
17 Aug 14 Dundalk (AW) Shabra Emperor (IRE)J: Joseph O'Brien Crowne Plaza Hotel Dundalk Handicap (50-70)8f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 14/1
08 Aug 14 Tipperary Shabra Emperor (IRE)J: Donnacha O'Brien Tipperaryraces.ie Apprentice Handicap (47-65)7.5f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 9th 20/1
04 Aug 14 Cork Shabra Charity (IRE)J: Mark Bolger Social Package Hurdle24f · Good · 7 ran 6th 50/1
04 Aug 14 Cork Shabra Emperor (IRE)J: Tommy Dowling Cork Handicap Hurdle (81-123)16f · Good · 9 ran PU 50/1
04 Aug 14 Cork Authorative (IRE)J: Mark Bolger Follow Us On Twitter Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 12 ran F 16/1
22 Jul 14 Ballinrobe Shabra Charity (IRE)J: Mark Bolger Mcgrath Limestone Works Ltd. Handicap Hurdle20f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 7th 33/1
22 Jul 14 Ballinrobe Authorative (IRE)J: Matthew Bowes Paddy Smyth Memorial Maiden Hurdle17f · Yielding · 12 ran 4th 50/1
17 Jul 14 Leopardstown Shabra Emperor (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Kieranoconnellracing.com Anniversary Handicap7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 11th 16/1
14 Jul 14 Downpatrick Flamenco Prince (GB)J: Brian Cawley Joe Rea Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-95)23f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 9th 25/1
14 Jul 14 Downpatrick Duroob (GB)J: Mark Bolger Joe Rea Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-95)23f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 4th 14/1
14 Jul 14 Downpatrick Garamor Boy (IRE)J: A E Lynch Jumping Leprechauns Handicap Hurdle (80-95)18f · Good · 11 ran 5th 20/1
14 Jul 14 Downpatrick Shabra Charity (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Bronte Homelands Hurdle18f · Good · 5 ran 4th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Patrick O Brady's strike rate?
Patrick O Brady has won 50 of 1,113 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.5% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick O Brady do best at?
Naas by strike rate: 6 wins from 66 runners (9.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Patrick O Brady?
Matthew Bowes, with 268 runners since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (4.1%).
What is Patrick O Brady's Fair A/E?
0.88, from 1,112 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).