Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceTim Easterby: 8.8% from 68Claiming: 10.5%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.2% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
4.8%−4.4
n=63 · A/E 0.37 · £1 −44.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
20%+10.8
n=10 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −4.50
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
8.3%−0.9
n=12 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −7.50
When favourite
40%
n=10 · A/E 1.43 · £1 +3.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
10.5%+1.3
n=76 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −39.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
10%+0.8
n=10 · A/E 1.22 · £1 −4.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 616.7% vs 9.2% · n=36
In Class 53% vs 9.2% · n=33
On first rides for the horse4.8% vs 9.2% · n=63
Over 1m2f – 1m4f12.1% vs 9.2% · n=33
On Good going6.3% vs 9.2% · n=32
In Flat races11.5% vs 9.2% · n=61
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 93% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat61711.5%−28.50
Chase1516.7%−10.50
Hurdle1000%−10.00
NH Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good3226.3%−22.50
Good to Soft19421.1%−6.00
Good to Firm1800%−18.00
Soft1100%−11.00
Standard (AW)6233.3%+8.50
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Catterick1218.3%−10.00
Haydock700%−7.00
Hexham600%−6.00
Carlisle6116.7%−1.50
Musselburgh400%−4.00
Newcastle (AW)4250%+10.50
Ayr400%−4.00
York4125%+1.50
Beverley400%−4.00
Pontefract4125%+0.00
Sedgefield300%−3.00
Wetherby300%−3.00
Nottingham300%−3.00
Doncaster3133.3%+0.00
Hamilton2150%+1.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 636616.7%−9.00
Class 53313%−28.50
Class 41616.3%−10.50
Class 2100%−1.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite14535.7%1.47+3.00
2nd–3rd fav3226.3%0.36−22.00
4th–6th fav3313%0.34−23.00
7th+ in betting800%0.00−8.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f33412.1%−9.00
1m5f – 2m13323.1%−4.50
2m5f – 3m1218.3%−7.50
Under 6f800%−8.00
2m1f – 2m4f600%−6.00
Over 3m600%−6.00
6f – 7f500%−5.00
1m – 1m1f400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221616.3%−6.00
202318316.7%−6.00
20241417.1%−11.00
20251000%−10.00
202629310.3%−17.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7279.7%−39.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3139.7%−20.50
5-7 runners2627.7%−19.50
11-13 runners20210%−5.50
14-16 runners5120%+0.50
17+ runners500%−5.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 63 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
001300337610000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.5% of 2,887 runs since 2020 (210 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.7% from 104. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.1% from 115.
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,639 runs since 2018 (160 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.7% from 179. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.5% from 253.
Court Cave (IRE)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,963 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.
Progeny have won 7.8% of 1,368 runs since 2015 (103 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.7% from 247. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.7% from 149. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.1% from 271.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 87 · newest first
The latest 50 of 87 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 27 May 2022 to 6 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mr Thomas Easterby's strike rate?
Mr Thomas Easterby has won 8 of 87 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 9.2% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Mr Thomas Easterby ride most for?
Tim Easterby, with 68 rides since 2008 — 78% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (8.8%).
Is Mr Thomas Easterby in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mr Thomas Easterby's Fair A/E?
0.66, from 85 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Mr Thomas Easterby·SR 9.2%·A/E 0.66
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