Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.1% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−9.1
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−9.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−9.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−9.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft3133.3%+8.80
Good to Soft200%−2.00
Good200%−2.00
Heavy200%−2.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Saint-Cloud (FR)500%−5.00
Deauville (FR)300%−3.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)11100%+10.80
Chantilly (FR)100%−1.00
Longchamp (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav100%0.00−1.00
4th–6th fav300%0.00−3.00
7th+ in betting6116.7%4.50+5.80
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f6116.7%+5.80
1m – 1m1f300%−3.00
1m5f – 2m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20228112.5%+3.80
2023100%−1.00
2025100%−1.00
2026100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps8112.5%+3.80
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners3133.3%+8.80
14-16 runners300%−3.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
8-10 runners200%−2.00
17+ runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 5 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Duke Of Conker (FR) — Prix du Cercle de l'Union (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf) Lyon Parilly (FR) · Jun 2022
£10,504
Jazeb (FR) — Prix Recruit II (Chase) (Claimer) Auteuil (FR) · Sep 2008
£7,412
Royal Denpasar (FR) — Prix Pretentaine (Claiming Hurdle) Auteuil (FR) · May 2008
Progeny have won 13.5% of 7,030 runs since 2011 (543 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.3% from 1,044. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 19.8% from 126. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 267.
Progeny have won 12.3% of 1,674 runs since 2014 (219 horses). Strongest on Good going: 16.6% from 392. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.9% from 278.
Lord Of England (GER)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 10.4% of 1,096 runs since 2010 (151 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.4% from 109. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.3% from 284. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7% from 142.
Seabhac (USA)0% · 0–1
Progeny have won 9.6% of 429 runs since 2022 (62 horses).
Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,773 runs since 2015 (799 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 62 · newest first
The latest 50 of 62 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 June 2007 to 20 August 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Nicolas Guilbert's strike rate?
Nicolas Guilbert has won 1 of 11 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.1% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 rides, so read the count before the percentage.
Nicolas Guilbert·SR 9.1%·A/E 1.01
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