What is P Demercastel's strike rate?

P Demercastel has won 115 of 1,276 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does P Demercastel do best at?

Saint-Cloud by strike rate: 31 wins from 266 runners (11.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for P Demercastel?

Stephane Pasquier, with 223 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 34 (15.2%).

What is P Demercastel's Fair A/E?

0.91, from 1,088 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

P Demercastel

1,276 runners in the lifetime window · 145 individual horses

As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner May 2020 96% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

115–1,276

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=1,276

302 (24%)

Placed

0.91

Fair A/E

n=1,088 · 0.79 incl. margin

−282.90

£1 level stake

n=1,107 at SP · −25.6%

£3.67m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

50%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 100 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.91).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,276 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Aug–Sep Fresh horses: 10.4% 27.8% when favourite Stephane Pasquier: 15.2% from 223 Sent off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 4.7% (n=64, Fair A/E 0.36). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 10.4% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.31 and +75.20 to a £1 stake over 269 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet debutants: 9.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.22 and −69.00 to a £1 stake over 116 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Stephane Pasquier rode 17% of the entries and beats the yard's average (15.2% vs 9%, A/E 0.88). The yard also read well over 1m5f – 2m (15.5%, n=58) and on Soft going (12.1%, n=331). 22 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix d'Harcourt at Longchamp (FR) (Apr 2009, £71,942). The stable star of the record was Spirit's Revench (FR) — 6 wins from 68 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Aug–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.4%+1.4

n=269 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +75.20

New recruits · first run for the yard

6.3%−2.7

n=16 · A/E 1.82 · £1 +26.00

Debutants · first career start

9.5%+0.5

n=116 · A/E 0.22 · £1 −69.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.7%−4.3

n=64 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −51.80

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.8%−4.2

n=42 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −24.10

When favourite

27.8%

n=54 · A/E 0.94 · £1 +13.10

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

6.6%−2.4

n=197 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −117.40

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

5.7%−3.3

n=193 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −65.70

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Christophe Soumillon 19.4% vs 9% · n=67

With Stephane Pasquier 15.2% vs 9% · n=223

Over 1m5f – 2m 15.5% vs 9% · n=58

With Aurelien Lemaitre 3.1% vs 9% · n=32

On Soft going 12.1% vs 9% · n=331

With first-time headgear 4.7% vs 9% · n=64

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,228 111 9% −297.10

Hurdle 47 4 8.5% +15.20

Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 374 25 6.7% −118.50

Soft 331 40 12.1% −27.00

Good 254 22 8.7% −59.50

Good to Soft 189 13 6.9% −87.70

Heavy 126 15 11.9% +11.80

Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Deauville (FR) 293 18 6.1% −142.30

Saint-Cloud 266 31 11.7% −79.80

Chantilly (FR) 241 22 9.1% −21.30

Longchamp (FR) 189 21 11.1% −22.60

Maisons-Laffitte (FR) 144 11 7.6% +2.60

Enghien (FR) 25 0 0% −25.00

Auteuil (FR) 21 3 14.3% +3.20

Clairefontaine 19 3 15.8% +2.00

Cagnes-Sur-Mer 18 0 0% −9.00

Compiegne 13 3 23.1% +29.00

Toulouse 13 2 15.4% −2.70

Nantes 4 0 0% −1.00

Fontainebleau 4 1 25% −3.00

Le Croise-Laroche 4 0 0% −1.00

Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) 3 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 193 11 5.7% −65.70

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 57 15 26.3% 0.90 +10.10

2nd–3rd fav 160 18 11.3% 0.87 −50.70

4th–6th fav 289 19 6.6% 0.91 −64.50

7th+ in betting 601 19 3.2% 0.95 −177.80

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Spirit's Revench (FR)then R Le Gal 68 6 20 18 May 20

Lion Des Flandres (FR) 63 6 12 10 Oct 17

Sisyphe (FR) 47 3 17 26 Oct 17

Galeo Des Flandres (FR)then Y Barberot 40 3 16 1 Nov 13

Parkori (FR)then F-X De Chevigny 28 6 8 21 May 15

Yosha (IRE)then Y Barberot 28 2 7 16 Oct 13

Fortune Royal (FR) 27 0 4 7 Jan 17

Kirikkale (FR) 26 3 7 7 Aug 16

Slickly Royal (FR) 25 1 5 3 Jan 11

Eva Glitters (FR) 22 1 4 27 Aug 19

Master's Spirit (IRE)then J Reynier 21 2 8 19 Jun 16

Tinera (FR) 21 1 2 26 Aug 12

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 145 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Y Barberot (2); 56 had their first archived run for this yard.

29 have since run for another yard, most often for F-X De Chevigny (2) and Mme E Siavy-Julien (2); 31 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

6514981081013894

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderStephane Pasquier

17% of all rides
15.2% SR · A/E 0.88

RiderRWSR£1

Stephane Pasquier 223 34 15.2% −26.10

Eddy Hardouin 120 10 8.3% +70.90

Thierry Thulliez 74 4 5.4% −34.20

Anthony Crastus 71 7 9.9% −33.10

Christophe Soumillon 67 13 19.4% +5.60

Thierry Jarnet 64 7 10.9% +6.90

Ioritz Mendizabal 46 3 6.5% −12.80

Gregory Benoist 39 5 12.8% −22.00

Aurelien Lemaitre 32 1 3.1% −3.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

153

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£4.85m

Prize money

2009

Best season · 27 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Trincot (FR) — Prix d'Harcourt Longchamp (FR) · Apr 2009 · Group 2

£71,942

Trincot (FR) — Qatar Prix Dollar Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2008 · Group 2

£54,485

Vatori (FR) — Prix Greffulhe (Colts & Fillies) Saint-Cloud (FR) · May 2005 · Group 2

£48,511

Notable horses

Spirit's Revench (FR) Lion Des Flandres (FR) Parkori (FR) Cloudor (FR) Spirit One (FR) Trincot (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Spirit One (FR) 7.1% · 10–140

Progeny have won 10.4% of 1,074 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.5% from 199. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.5% from 158. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.4% from 216.

Vatori (FR) 13% · 13–100

Progeny have won 7.3% of 905 runs since 2008 (89 horses).

Slickly (FR) 7.1% · 6–85

Progeny have won 8% of 3,070 runs since 2008 (318 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11% from 310. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.9% from 243.

Gold Away (IRE) 9.5% · 6–63

Progeny have won 10.3% of 2,477 runs since 2008 (206 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.6% from 328. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.3% from 177.

Chichicastenango (FR) 12.1% · 7–58

Progeny have won 11.7% of 728 runs since 2008 (103 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 14.9% from 174. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.8% from 219. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.1% from 112.

Kingsalsa (USA) 10.6% · 5–47

Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,989 runs since 2008 (284 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.7% from 110.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,500 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,500 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 February 2005 to 18 May 2020.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

18 May 20 Chantilly (FR) Spirit's Revench (FR)J: Mme Coralie Pacaut Prix des Pistes d'Entrainement (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf)15f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 159/10

14 Feb 20 Chantilly (FR) Spirit's Revench (FR)J: Aurelien Lemaitre Prix de Jagny-Sous-Bois (Handicap) (5yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)13.5f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 21/1

12 Dec 19 Chantilly (FR) Spirit's Revench (FR)J: Maxime Guyon Prix de Fosses (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)16f · Standard · 16 ran 15th 18/1

28 Nov 19 Deauville (FR) Spirit's Revench (FR)J: Aurelien Lemaitre Prix des Poiriers (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)12.5f · Standard · 15 ran 9th 21/1

17 Oct 19 Longchamp (FR) Spirit's Revench (FR)J: Aurelien Lemaitre Prix Castries (Handicap) (4yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf)12f · Heavy · 18 ran 12th 10/1

13 Oct 19 Auteuil (FR) Lord Spirit (FR)J: Dylan Ubeda Prix Georges de Talhouet-Roy (Hurdle) (3yo) (Turf)18f · Very Soft · 7 ran 6th 58/1

01 Oct 19 Compiegne (FR) Lord Spirit (FR)J: Dylan Ubeda Prix d'Aix (Hurdle) (Conditions) (3yo) (Turf)17f · Heavy · 9 ran 6th 16/1

30 Sep 19 Chantilly (FR) Spirit's Revench (FR)J: Maxime Guyon Prix Picardie Valois (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf)12f · Soft · 14 ran 4th 9/1

12 Sep 19 Compiegne (FR) Lord Spirit (FR)J: Dylan Ubeda Prix Nuage (Hurdle) (Conditions) (3yo Colts & Geldings) (Turf)17f · Very Soft · 7 ran 1st 37/1

01 Sep 19 Longchamp (FR) Spirit's Revench (FR)J: Aurelien Lemaitre Prix des Invalides (Handicap) (4yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf)12f · Good · 16 ran 7th 19/1

27 Aug 19 Deauville (FR) Eva Glitters (FR)J: Alexandre Chesneau Prix Canonnier Beachcomber Resort & Spa (Handicap) (4yo+) (Polytrack)7.5f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 28/1

25 Aug 19 Deauville (FR) Spirit's Revench (FR)J: Aurelien Lemaitre Prix Casino Barriere Deauville (Handicap) (3yo+) (Round Course) (Turf)16f · Good · 16 ran 3rd 19/1

03 Jul 19 Deauville (FR) Eva Glitters (FR)J: Jefferson Smith Prix du Canal de Retour d'Eau (Claimer) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack)6.5f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 22/1

27 Jun 19 Longchamp (FR) As Des Flandres (FR)J: Cristian Demuro Prix du Palais de Tokyo (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)12f · Good · 15 ran 2nd 8/1

11 Jun 19 Dieppe (FR) Eva Glitters (FR)J: Jefferson Smith Prix Verrazano (Claimer) (4yo+) (Turf)7f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 16/1

30 May 19 Longchamp (FR) Spirit's Revench (FR)J: Aurelien Lemaitre Prix de la Galerie d'Apollon (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)12f · Good · 16 ran 12th 23/5F

07 May 19 Saint-Cloud (FR) Eva Glitters (FR)J: Mme Marie Velon Prix de Buzenval (Claimer) (4yo) (Turf)6.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 8th 43/1

06 May 19 Chantilly (FR) As Des Flandres (FR)J: Cristian Demuro Prix De Chevrieres (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)12f · Soft · 13 ran 13th 33/10F

06 May 19 Chantilly (FR) Spirit's Revench (FR)J: Aurelien Lemaitre Prix De Chevrieres (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)12f · Soft · 13 ran 3rd 16/1

26 Apr 19 Maisons-Laffitte (FR) Mont Steele (FR)J: Aurelien Lemaitre Prix de la Genevraye (Handicap) (3yo) (Turf)12f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 10th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is P Demercastel's strike rate?: P Demercastel has won 115 of 1,276 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does P Demercastel do best at?: Saint-Cloud by strike rate: 31 wins from 266 runners (11.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for P Demercastel?: Stephane Pasquier, with 223 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 34 (15.2%).
What is P Demercastel's Fair A/E?: 0.91, from 1,088 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.