Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFirst rides: 7.3%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
7.3%+0.5
n=41 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−6.8
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
5%−1.8
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 +30.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
10%+3.2
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−6.8
n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −28.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Flat races2.3% vs 6.8% · n=44
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat4412.3%−28.20
Hurdle13215.4%+22.00
Chase2150%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft22418.2%+25.80
Standard (AW)1400%−14.00
Good to Soft1000%−7.00
Good800%−7.00
Heavy500%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)1400%−14.00
Auteuil (FR)10330%+26.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)800%−8.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)600%−6.00
Chantilly (FR)500%−4.00
Longchamp (FR)500%−5.00
Enghien (FR)500%−5.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)3133.3%+9.80
Granville-St Pair Sur Mer200%—
Vichy (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1500%−4.00
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%0.00+30.00
2nd–3rd fav100%0.00−1.00
4th–6th fav800%0.00−8.00
7th+ in betting4012.5%1.03−28.20
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f1815.6%−5.20
2m1f – 2m4f15320%+21.00
1m – 1m1f1500%−12.00
6f – 7f700%−7.00
1m5f – 2m400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20085360%+31.00
2009100%—
20101300%−13.00
20111300%−12.00
2012200%−2.00
2013300%−1.00
2016100%−1.00
2017100%−1.00
2018300%−3.00
2019100%−1.00
2020300%−3.00
2021200%−2.00
20228112.5%+3.80
2023100%−1.00
2025100%−1.00
2026100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1616.3%−3.20
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners1700%−17.00
11-13 runners1119.1%+1.80
17+ runners1100%−11.00
2-4 runners7228.6%+31.00
5-7 runners7114.3%−6.00
8-10 runners600%−6.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 41 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0·0029140033000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Duke Of Conker (FR) — Prix du Cercle de l'Union (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf) Lyon Parilly (FR) · Jun 2022
£10,504
Jazeb (FR) — Prix Recruit II (Chase) (Claimer) Auteuil (FR) · Sep 2008
£7,412
Royal Denpasar (FR) — Prix Pretentaine (Claiming Hurdle) Auteuil (FR) · May 2008
Progeny have won 13.5% of 7,042 runs since 2011 (543 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.3% from 1,044. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 19.7% from 127. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 267.
Progeny have won 12.3% of 1,681 runs since 2014 (220 horses). Strongest on Good going: 16.7% from 395. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.9% from 280.
Areion (GER)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 10.6% of 1,319 runs since 2008 (177 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.6% from 144.
Comte Du Bourg (FR)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 10.8% of 83 runs since 2008 (11 horses).
Kendor (FR)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 11% of 734 runs since 2008 (89 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 16.1% from 161.
Nolt (FR)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 0% of 21 runs since 2010 (2 horses). A small sample.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 62 · newest first
The latest 50 of 62 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 12 June 2007 to 20 August 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Nicolas Guilbert's strike rate?
Nicolas Guilbert has won 4 of 59 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 6.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Nicolas Guilbert's Fair A/E?
0.48, from 50 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Nicolas Guilbert·SR 6.8%·A/E 0.48
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