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Jockey profile

Paul Kavanagh

32 rides in the last 5 seasons · 23 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride 353 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2023→)
from 1 Jan 2022
2–32
Wins / Runs
6.3%
Strike rate
n=32
6 (19%)
Placed
1.11
Fair A/E
n=32 · 0.89 incl. margin
−23.50
£1 level stake
n=32 at SP · −73.4%
£19,398
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
4.3%

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.3% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
4.3%−2.0
n=23 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −19.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
100%+93.7
n=1 · A/E 5.45 · £1 +3.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−6.3
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
100%
n=1 · A/E 5.45 · £1 +3.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
6.3%+0.0
n=32 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −23.50
Big fields · 14+ runners
6.7%+0.4
n=15 · A/E 1.35 · £1 −11.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 19 1 5.3% −15.00
Flat 7 1 14.3% −2.50
Chase 5 0 0% −5.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 12 0 0% −12.00
Good to Soft 8 1 12.5% −4.00
Soft 4 0 0% −4.00
Good to Firm 3 1 33.3% +1.50
Heavy 3 0 0% −3.00
Standard (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Clonmel 4 1 25% +0.00
Limerick 4 0 0% −4.00
Cork 3 0 0% −3.00
Punchestown 3 0 0% −3.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
Ballinrobe 2 0 0% −2.00
Haydock 1 0 0% −1.00
Redcar 1 0 0% −1.00
Kilbeggan 1 0 0% −1.00
Tipperary 1 0 0% −1.00
Wexford 1 0 0% −1.00
Ascot 1 0 0% −1.00
Sligo 1 0 0% −1.00
Listowel 1 0 0% −1.00
Killarney 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 3 1 33.3% +1.50
Class 5 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1 1 100% 5.45 +3.00
2nd–3rd fav 5 1 20% 1.59 −0.50
4th–6th fav 6 0 0% 0.00 −6.00
7th+ in betting 20 0 0% 0.00 −20.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
95.8% completed · 24 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 5 100% 0 0 0 0 0
Hurdle 19 94.7% 1 0 0 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Phoenix Cowboy (USA) 4 0 2 29 May 25
Harley Street (IRE) 3 0 0 8 Sep 25
Deebert (IRE) 2 0 0 18 Nov 25
Mr Eastwood (IRE) 2 0 1 1 Oct 25
Solitary Man (IRE) 2 0 1 23 Aug 25
Owens Lad (GB) 2 1 1 23 Aug 23
Where Are You Now (IRE) 1 0 0 2 Nov 25
Knockmore (IRE) 1 0 0 12 Oct 25
Gaoithe Glory (IRE) 1 0 0 25 Sep 25
Matilauna (IRE) 1 0 0 12 Sep 25
Guest Star (GB) 1 0 0 27 Aug 25
Gimme A Buzz (IRE) 1 1 1 6 Jun 25
All 23 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
·0000200250000
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
TrainerRWSR£1
E Bolger 14 1 7.1% −10.00
David Loughnane 7 1 14.3% −2.50
Michael Winters 4 0 0% −4.00
Ray Hackett 2 0 0% −2.00
John C McConnell 1 0 0% −1.00
Augustine Leahy 1 0 0% −1.00
Gillian Scott 1 0 0% −1.00
C Byrnes 1 0 0% −1.00
E McNamara 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2023→
2
Archived wins
£19,398
Prize money
2025
Best season · 1 win
Gimme A Buzz (IRE) — Clonmel Show Sunday July 6th Handicap Hurdle Clonmel · Jun 2025
£6,785
Owens Lad (GB) — AJA Novice Flat Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Carlisle · Aug 2023 · Class 6
£3,229
Notable horses
Owens Lad (GB) Gimme A Buzz (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Gleneagles (IRE) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 11.4% of 4,571 runs since 2019 (447 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 283.
Galileo (IRE) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,201 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.4% from 890.
Jet Away (GB) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 11.2% of 2,545 runs since 2018 (274 horses).
Champs Elysees (GB) 0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,127 runs since 2013 (521 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 391. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.5% from 387.
Elusive Pimpernel (USA) 0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 7.7% of 3,145 runs since 2015 (317 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 10.7% from 382.
Harbour Watch (IRE) 50% · 1–2
Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,553 runs since 2016 (236 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 6.5% from 322. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.6% from 463.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

all 32 archived runs · newest first

Every one of Paul Kavanagh's 32 archived rides, from 8 April 2023 to 18 November 2025, newest first — 2 winners among them.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
18 Nov 25 Limerick Deebert (IRE)T: E Bolger Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 14 ran F 66/1
08 Nov 25 Gowran Park Deebert (IRE)T: E Bolger Proficient Engineering Irish EBF Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 20 ran 15th 80/1
02 Nov 25 Cork Where Are You Now (IRE)T: E Bolger Paddy Power From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)16f · Yielding · 13 ran 4th 10/1
12 Oct 25 Cork Knockmore (IRE)T: Augustine Leahy Racing Again November 2nd (Pro/Am) Flat Race19f · Good · 7 ran 5th 200/1
01 Oct 25 Sligo Mr Eastwood (IRE)T: Ray Hackett Gracie's Bar Beginners Chase21f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 10th 66/1
25 Sep 25 Listowel Gaoithe Glory (IRE)T: E McNamara Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 5th 18/1
12 Sep 25 Ballinrobe Matilauna (IRE)T: Gillian Scott Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle18f · Soft · 14 ran 12th 150/1
08 Sep 25 Galway Harley Street (IRE)T: E Bolger Galway Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)22.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 11th 12/1
27 Aug 25 Bellewstown Guest Star (GB)T: John C McConnell John Purfield Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Good · 15 ran 12th 50/1
25 Aug 25 Ballinrobe Mr Eastwood (IRE)T: Ray Hackett Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle18.5f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 100/1
23 Aug 25 Killarney Solitary Man (IRE)T: E Bolger O'Donoghue Ring Collection Handicap Chase (Listed)21f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 3rd 11/2
11 Jul 25 Kilbeggan Harley Street (IRE)T: E Bolger Larrigy's Pub Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)18.5f · Good · 12 ran 9th 11/1
07 Jun 25 Punchestown Harley Street (IRE)T: E Bolger Ladbrokes 'Gaffer Of All Accas' Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)24f · Good To Yielding · 19 ran 12th 14/1
07 Jun 25 Punchestown Solitary Man (IRE)T: E Bolger Ladbrokes 'Big Value You Can Bet On' Handicap Chase16f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 6th 17/2
06 Jun 25 Clonmel Gimme A Buzz (IRE)T: E Bolger Clonmel Show Sunday July 6th Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 1st 3/1F
29 May 25 Limerick Phoenix Cowboy (USA)T: Michael Winters McMahons Builders Providers Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)19f · Good · 16 ran 6th 15/2
17 May 25 Wexford Phoenix Cowboy (USA)T: Michael Winters Slaney River Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Good · 14 ran 3rd 15/2
08 May 25 Tipperary Mica Malpic (FR)T: E Bolger Botanica International Handicap Chase16.5f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 7th 16/1
30 Apr 25 Punchestown Hands On (IRE)T: E Bolger Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Yielding · 25 ran 10th 50/1
10 Apr 25 Limerick Phoenix Cowboy (USA)T: Michael Winters Event Trax Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Good · 12 ran 5th 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Kavanagh's strike rate?
Paul Kavanagh has won 2 of 32 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Paul Kavanagh's Fair A/E?
1.11, from 32 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).