Stephane Paillard
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 30 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.87).
Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 2.9% (n=139, Fair A/E 0.49). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 6.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.52 and −119.80 to a £1 stake over 288 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. E Leray supplies 18% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.6% vs 8.3%, A/E 0.87). The rider also reads well off a 31-60-day break (18.2%, n=55). 6 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Prix Maurice Gillois Grand Steeple-Chase des 4 ans - Le Parisien at Auteuil (FR) (Nov 2016, £115,809).
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.3% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 527 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 527 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 31 March 2007 to 23 October 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Stephane Paillard's strike rate?
- Stephane Paillard has won 43 of 520 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Stephane Paillard do best at?
- Compiegne (FR) by strike rate: 5 wins from 63 rides (7.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Stephane Paillard ride most for?
- E Leray, with 95 rides since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (12.6%).
- What is Stephane Paillard's Fair A/E?
- 0.87, from 446 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.