Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.5%+5.2
n=21 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −11.90
New recruits · first run for the yard
25%+20.7
n=4 · A/E 3.24 · £1 +1.20
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.3
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.3
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 1.97 · £1 +1.90
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−4.3
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
33.3%+29.0
n=3 · A/E 3.40 · £1 +0.90
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle3512.9%−28.80
Chase6116.7%−2.10
Flat500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft2314.3%−18.10
Heavy1815.6%−12.80
Good to Soft200%−2.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Good100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)2100%−21.00
Compiegne (FR)10110%−4.80
Chateaubriant (FR)300%−3.00
Saint-Malo (FR)200%−2.00
Deauville (FR)200%−2.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)2150%+1.90
Pau (FR)100%−1.00
Nancy (FR)100%—
Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR)100%−1.00
Senonnes-Pouance (FR)100%−1.00
Fontainebleau (FR)100%−1.00
Craon (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 13133.3%+0.90
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 4100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%1.97+1.90
2nd–3rd fav8112.5%0.81−2.80
4th–6th fav1600%0.00−16.00
7th+ in betting1900%0.00−19.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4212.4%−35.80
6f – 7f200%−2.00
2m5f – 3m11100%+2.90
Over 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20221119.1%−7.10
20231317.7%−6.80
2024700%−7.00
2025600%−6.00
2026900%−9.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1119.1%−7.10
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners16212.5%−5.90
14-16 runners1100%−11.00
11-13 runners900%−9.00
5-7 runners800%−8.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 19 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 19 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 15 had their first archived run for this yard.
2 have since run for another yard; 17 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0·003300000170
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Demon De Fleur (FR) — Grand Steeple Alain du Breil - Prix Kauto Star (Chase) (Listed Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) · May 2021 · Listed
£26,116
Demon De Fleur (FR) — Grand Steeple Alain du Breil - Prix de l'Asselco (Chase) (Listed Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) · May 2022 · Listed
£24,580
Zen Light (FR) — Prix de la Hague (Hurdle) (Claimer) (5yo+) (Turf) Compiegne (FR) · Nov 2023
Progeny have won 9.5% of 546 runs since 2008 (86 horses). Strongest on Good going: 16.2% from 148. Weakest on Soft going: 5.6% from 196. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.7% from 170. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5% from 220.
Ballingarry (IRE)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 10.4% of 2,431 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.4% from 125.
Progeny have won 9% of 568 runs since 2008 (80 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12% from 158.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 23 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 82 · newest first
The latest 50 of 82 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 March 2019 to 13 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Noam Chevalier's strike rate?
Noam Chevalier has won 2 of 46 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4.3% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Noam Chevalier in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Noam Chevalier's Fair A/E?
0.57, from 45 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Noam Chevalier·SR 4.3%·A/E 0.57
KTB
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