Tom O'Connor
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 40 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94). Rode mostly for Bill Turner — 53% of rides in the window.
Rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 1.4% (n=69, Fair A/E 0.34). Bill Turner supplied 53% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (6.3%, A/E 1.14) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well over 2m5f – 3m (14.7%, n=34) and on Good to Firm going (9.1%, n=55). The record read poorly in NH Flat races — 2.2% over 45 rides, 3.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.52 across 111 rides (2.7% strike, −73.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.3% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 386 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 386 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 April 2006 to 23 October 2013.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Tom O'Connor's strike rate?
- Tom O'Connor has won 14 of 266 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.3% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Tom O'Connor do best at?
- Newton Abbot by strike rate: 2 wins from 64 rides (3.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Tom O'Connor ride most for?
- Bill Turner, with 142 rides since 2008 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (6.3%).
- What is Tom O'Connor's Fair A/E?
- 0.94, from 266 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.