Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceFirst rides: 7.5%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.8% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
7.5%+1.7
n=40 · A/E 1.44 · £1 −6.60
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
50%+44.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 +1.90
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
18.2%+12.4
n=11 · A/E 1.50 · £1 +12.90
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 +1.90
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
20%+14.2
n=5 · A/E 6.21 · £1 +14.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
5.3%−0.5
n=19 · A/E 1.14 · £1 +0.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat3126.5%−6.10
Hurdle1715.9%−9.50
Chase400%−3.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft2428.3%−0.50
Good1200%−10.00
Good to Soft1000%−7.00
Heavy400%−4.00
Standard (AW)100%—
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dax9111.1%−4.50
Auteuil (FR)800%−8.00
Toulouse (FR)700%−6.00
La Teste De Buch (FR)600%−6.00
Longchamp (FR)500%−5.00
Pau400%−4.00
Pompadour3133.3%+2.90
Enghien (FR)200%−2.00
Hyeres100%−1.00
Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR)11100%+18.00
Castera-Verduzan100%—
Tarbes (FR)100%−1.00
Cazaubon-Barbotan-Les-Thermes100%—
Saint-Cloud (FR)100%−1.00
Mont-De-Marsan100%—
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4700%−7.00
Class 1200%−1.00
Class 311100%+2.50
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%0.00+1.90
2nd–3rd fav5120%2.02−1.50
4th–6th fav1100%0.00−11.00
7th+ in betting2713.7%1.75−8.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f19210.5%+5.90
2m1f – 2m4f1815.6%−9.50
6f – 7f700%−7.00
1m – 1m1f300%−3.00
Over 3m300%−3.00
1m5f – 2m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2010200%−1.00
2011100%−1.00
2012300%−2.00
20133133.3%+0.90
2015800%−6.00
2016500%−3.00
2017100%−1.00
2019100%−1.00
20206116.7%+14.00
2024300%−3.00
2025200%−2.00
20261715.9%−13.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1119.1%+9.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners1417.1%+5.00
11-13 runners1218.3%−8.50
8-10 runners900%−8.00
2-4 runners7114.3%+0.90
17+ runners500%−5.00
5-7 runners500%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 40 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
·00014013001300
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Kheops De Buj (FR) — Prix Chateau De Poyanne Dax (FR) · Oct 2026 · Class 3
£11,040
Noctis Maj (FR) — Prix Louis Dubourg (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf) Bordeaux Le Bouscat (FR) · May 2020
£5,932
Luna Lucky (FR) — Prix Marc Celerier (Conditions Race) (Turf) Pompadour · Jul 2013
Progeny have won 9.1% of 910 runs since 2011 (119 horses). Strongest on Good going: 13.9% from 202. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 13% from 138. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.9% from 127.
Progeny have won 0% of 4 runs since 2026 (2 horses). A small sample.
Lavirco (GER)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 16.8% of 1,170 runs since 2008 (121 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 24.3% from 300. Weakest on Good going: 9.1% from 175. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 20.1% from 278.
Night Tango (GER)50% · 1–2
Progeny have won 7.3% of 275 runs since 2010 (28 horses).
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 53 · newest first
The latest 50 of 53 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 February 2007 to 9 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Vincent Chenet's strike rate?
Vincent Chenet has won 3 of 52 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.8% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Vincent Chenet's Fair A/E?
0.94, from 40 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Vincent Chenet·SR 5.8%·A/E 0.94
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