2:59 Nottingham
This Class 4 British Stallion Studs EBF Nursery Handicap over 1m2f50y at Nottingham on good ground brings together five two-year-olds, most of whom are unproven at this distance. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Kanzi, Crown Ranger and Akaraka all rated in the low-to-mid 50s, suggesting a competitive renewal where the unknowns around stamina will play a major part. Official ratings range from 77 down to 56, with three runners stepping up in class and all bar one making their first attempt at beyond a mile.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should prove an advantage. Kanzi is the one most likely to race prominently and could control matters from a good draw in stall four. The key question is whether the prominent runner can stretch the held-up and midfield types sufficiently in the straight, or whether the race will turn into a sprint for the line in which late closers can land a blow.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kanzi KTB Selection54/100
Kanzi has shown fair form in three starts, winning on debut and finishing a solid second last time. He now steps up in trip which is an unknown and the yard has a modest 4% strike rate at Nottingham from 52 runs. The jockey has a stronger 16% strike rate here from 98 rides. From a favourable draw of four he is expected to race prominently and sit on or close to the lead, a run-style that looks well suited to the anticipated steady pace. Official rating of 77 places him among the top weights alongside Crown Ranger, and his recent form of 215 gives him solid claims in a race where being handy could pay.
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2Crown Ranger53/100
Crown Ranger has shown fair form across five runs with a string of consistent placed efforts at shorter trips. He now steps up in trip for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate at Nottingham from a large sample. Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride and the trainer-jockey combination boasts an excellent 25% strike rate together with a positive A/E of 1.28. Usually held up, Crown Ranger will be produced late, which may not be ideal given the lack of an obvious leader and the likelihood of a tactical affair. Rated 77 on official figures, he arrives off the back of form figures of 65334 and remains a major player if the extra distance suits.
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3Akaraka51/100
Akaraka has shown modest form across four starts with a best effort when runner-up last time. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Nottingham from a big sample. Stepping up in class as well as distance, the Michael Bell-trained colt is another who will settle in midfield according to the limited evidence available. Official rating of 72 leaves him 5lb below the top two, and his form figures of 7872 suggest he has a bit to find on balance, though the trainer-jockey partnership of 21% strike rate offers some encouragement.
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4Foscarini50/100
Foscarini has shown modest form in four starts, with a best effort when second over 6f on his second outing. He now steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question while remaining a modest performer on the ratings. The yard holds a solid 13% strike rate at Nottingham from a decent sample.
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5Northern Viola31/100
Limited performer who has shown mixed form across five runs and finished fourth of six last time. Steps up to an untested 1m2f today which asks a fresh question at this stage. Trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 24 runs at Nottingham.
KTB verdict
Kanzi is the KTB Selection and sets a fair standard on his debut win and subsequent solid second, with the prominent run-style looking ideally suited to a race that lacks an obvious leader. The step up to 1m2f50y remains an unknown, yet his ability to race handily gives him every chance of controlling the tempo and seeing the trip out best. Crown Ranger is the most obvious danger, boasting consistent placed form and a strong trainer-jockey record, while Akaraka cannot be entirely dismissed on the back of his latest runner-up effort despite the class rise.
KTB Selection Kanzi
This is the narrative read of the 2:59 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to make the running or race prominently?
Kanzi is the one most likely to race prominently as he usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
How does the trainer of Kanzi perform at Nottingham?
Charlie Johnston has a 4% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.29 from 52 runs.
What is the trainer-jockey strike rate for Crown Ranger's connections?
Marco Botti and Silvestre De Sousa have a 25% strike rate together with an A/E of 1.28 and +£29.36 LSP.
Which runners are stepping up in class for this nursery?
Akaraka, Foscarini and Northern Viola are all stepping up in class.
What is the going record for Northern Viola?
Northern Viola has 1 win from 2 runs on good ground with 1 placed.
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