What is James Sullivan's strike rate?

James Sullivan has won 157 of 2,184 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does James Sullivan do best at?

Catterick by strike rate: 10 wins from 84 rides (11.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does James Sullivan ride most for?

Ruth Carr, with 1,183 rides since 2022 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 113 (9.6%).

Is James Sullivan in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is James Sullivan's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 2,172 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

James Sullivan

2,184 rides in the last 5 seasons · 776 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

157–2,184

Wins / Runs

7.2%

Strike rate

n=2,184

484 (22%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=2,172 · 0.85 incl. margin

−652.62

£1 level stake

n=2,184 at SP · −29.9%

£1.79m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 440 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.99). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 13% (156 rides). Rides mostly for Ruth Carr — 54% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,184 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 30.1% when favourite Ruth Carr: 9.6% from 1,183 LTO winners: 12.8% Rides the favourite in 4% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 12.8% (n=156, Fair A/E 0.99), but first rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 4% (n=679, Fair A/E 0.81). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 7.2% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.51 and +101.00 to a £1 stake over 264 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Ruth Carr supplies 54% of the rides and edges the rider's average (9.6% vs 7.2%, A/E 1.10) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (18.1%, n=149). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 2.7% over 224 rides, 4.5pts below the baseline. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Sunbets All-weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes at Lingfield (AW) (Apr 2017, £93,375). The standout partner of the record: Red Cape (FR) — 11 wins from 64 rides together.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4%−3.2

n=679 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −263.30

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

12.8%+5.6

n=156 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −44.67

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.2%+0.0

n=264 · A/E 1.51 · £1 +101.00

When favourite

30.1%

n=83 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −0.56

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.7%−2.5

n=255 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −85.67

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.2

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 18.1% vs 7.2% · n=149

On last-time-out winners 12.8% vs 7.2% · n=156

With debutants 1.2% vs 7.2% · n=81

With Derek Shaw 0% vs 7.2% · n=34

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 2.7% vs 7.2% · n=224

On first rides for the horse 4% vs 7.2% · n=679

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 950 70 7.4% −373.38

Good 490 31 6.3% −213.44

Good to Firm 374 29 7.8% +0.00

Good to Soft 175 10 5.7% −33.25

Soft 175 16 9.1% −29.55

Heavy 20 1 5% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 366 23 6.3% −142.82

Wolverhampton (AW) 261 24 9.2% −83.17

Southwell (AW) 245 16 6.5% −124.89

Redcar 140 7 5% +2.50

Beverley 126 11 8.7% −28.42

Thirsk 124 7 5.6% −59.00

Ripon 98 9 9.2% −15.05

Doncaster 93 4 4.3% −52.00

Catterick 84 10 11.9% +41.70

Ayr 82 5 6.1% −53.25

Hamilton 74 6 8.1% −31.25

York 72 2 2.8% −41.00

Pontefract 71 6 8.5% +6.08

Musselburgh 68 5 7.4% −46.38

Chelmsford City (AW) 64 6 9.4% −16.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 961 84 8.7% −271.43

Class 5 616 46 7.5% −81.85

Class 4 361 18 5% −145.34

Class 2 122 4 3.3% −74.00

Class 3 121 5 4.1% −77.00

Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 118 33 28% 1.15 −1.48

2nd–3rd fav 269 40 14.9% 0.93 −49.14

4th–6th fav 650 53 8.2% 1.03 −93.00

7th+ in betting 1,147 31 2.7% 0.87 −509.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Reigning Profit (IRE) 52 7 18 15 Sep 26

Bobby Joe Leg (GB) 48 6 17 20 Oct 26

Jojo Rabbit (GB) 39 5 9 5 Oct 26

Reputation (IRE) 37 3 12 30 Jul 26

Daytona Lady (IRE) 34 4 14 2 Nov 26

Newyorkstateofmind (GB) 34 3 8 20 Aug 26

Rousing Encore (IRE) 33 3 12 23 Oct 26

Spanish Angel (IRE) 32 3 12 25 Feb 25

Makalu (IRE) 30 6 12 13 May 25

Dumfries (GB) 27 3 8 31 Oct 26

King Sharja (GB) 26 4 6 17 Oct 26

Mutanaaseq (IRE) 26 3 6 18 Oct 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 776 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 10

Only 10 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

10010767797577

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardRuth Carr

54% of all rides
9.6% SR · A/E 1.10

TrainerRWSR£1

Ruth Carr 1,183 113 9.6% −271.28

Tim Easterby 228 14 6.1% −29.84

Ollie Pears 75 8 10.7% +53.87

John & Sean Quinn 50 2 4% −22.00

John Quinn 37 4 10.8% −7.25

Derek Shaw 34 0 0% −34.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

706

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£6.67m

Prize money

2016

Best season · 57 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Sovereign Debt (IRE) — Sunbets All-weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes Lingfield (AW) · Apr 2017 · Class 2

£93,375

Taxmeifyoucan (IRE) — 32Red.com Handicap Haydock · Sep 2017 · Class 2

£62,250

Golden Apollo (GB) — Catherine Kinloch Paver Memorial Macmillan Charity Handicap York · Jun 2017 · Class 2

£62,250

Notable horses

Red Cape (FR) Klynch (GB) Bobby Joe Leg (GB) Meshardal (GER) Reigning Profit (IRE) Amazing Blue Sky (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Profitable (IRE) 13% · 13–100

Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,439 runs since 2021 (358 horses).

Mehmas (IRE) 13.3% · 10–75

Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,198 runs since 2020 (751 horses).

Pastoral Pursuits (GB) 12% · 9–75

Progeny have won 9.5% of 7,219 runs since 2009 (437 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.4% from 109. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1.5% from 133.

Acclamation (GB) 8.1% · 5–62

Progeny have won 10% of 19,707 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Brazen Beau (AUS) 5% · 3–60

Progeny have won 10.2% of 2,475 runs since 2019 (186 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.7% from 162. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 15.8% from 158.

Kingman (GB) 10.9% · 6–55

Progeny have won 14.5% of 7,514 runs since 2018 (777 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11.1% from 968. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 122.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 9,954 · newest first

The latest 50 of 9,954 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 March 2005 to 2 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Daytona Lady (IRE)T: Ruth Carr Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 4/1

31 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Mali Star (IRE)T: Ruth Carr Arc All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 50/1

31 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Dumfries (GB)T: Ruth Carr ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 18/1

30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Lanarra (IRE)T: R. Mike Smith Aw Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 8/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Light Speed (IRE)T: Ruth Carr Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 18/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Bad Habits (IRE)T: Ruth Carr AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 25/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Brother Dave (GB)T: Ruth Carr AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 33/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Wise Crack (IRE)T: Ruth Carr Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 3rd 13/2

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Rousing Encore (IRE)T: Ruth Carr William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap StakesClass 2 · 6f · Soft · 15 ran 11th 12/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Furturra (GB)T: Tim Easterby William Hill Extra Places Every Day Nursery Handicap StakesClass 3 · 6f · Soft · 6 ran 4th 11/1

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Bobby Joe Leg (GB)T: Ruth Carr All-Weather Championships Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 25/1

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Invincible Crown (IRE)T: Ruth Carr Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 3/1J

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Beautiful Rumour (GB)T: Scott Dixon Cavani Tailored Champion Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 25/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Pop The Question (GB)T: Samantha & Jacqueline Coward Andrew And Tony Roy Memorial Race Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 40/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) King Sharja (GB)T: Ruth Carr Saturday 24th October Gents Night Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 16/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Barleybrown (GB)T: Ruth Carr Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 11/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Falcon Queen (IRE)T: R. Mike Smith Quaff Box Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 10/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Lanarra (IRE)T: R. Mike Smith Central Employment & Training Partnership Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 2nd 6/5F

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Men Of Honour (IRE)T: Ruth Carr Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 10/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Light Speed (IRE)T: Ruth Carr Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 6 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 2 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is James Sullivan's strike rate?: James Sullivan has won 157 of 2,184 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does James Sullivan do best at?: Catterick by strike rate: 10 wins from 84 rides (11.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does James Sullivan ride most for?: Ruth Carr, with 1,183 rides since 2022 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 113 (9.6%).
Is James Sullivan in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is James Sullivan's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 2,172 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.