What is Michael Bell's strike rate?

Michael Bell has won 229 of 1,785 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Michael Bell do best at?

Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 27 wins from 135 runners (20%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Michael Bell?

Hector Crouch, with 301 runners since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 64 (21.3%).

Is Michael Bell in form?

In the last 14 days: 17 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 11.8%. That is in line with the baseline of 12.8% since 2022.

What is Michael Bell's Fair A/E?

0.96, from 1,775 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Michael Bell

1,785 runners in the last 5 seasons · 259 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 5.8% of 363 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 20 Oct 2026.

Last runner yesterday 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

229–1,785

Wins / Runs

12.8%

Strike rate

n=1,785

583 (33%)

Placed

0.96

Fair A/E

n=1,775 · 0.83 incl. margin

−490.81

£1 level stake

n=1,785 at SP · −27.5%

£3.92m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 360 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 13% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.96). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 15% off breaks of two months or more (247 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,785 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar Fresh horses: 15% 35.5% when favourite Hector Crouch: 21.3% from 301 Sends off the favourite in 14% of races

The read

In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.7% (n=73, Fair A/E 0.35). The market has consistently overbet debutants: 7% strike, Fair A/E 0.83 and −68.67 to a £1 stake over 200 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Hector Crouch rides 17% of the entries and beats the yard's average (21.3% vs 12.8%, A/E 1.30) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 2.8% over 72 runners, 10pts below the baseline. 60 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Vodafone Derby Stakes at Epsom Downs (Jun 2005, £725,000). The stable star of the record: True Courage (GB) — 9 wins from 42 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

15%+2.2

n=247 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −50.14

New recruits · first run for the yard

22.2%+9.4

n=27 · A/E 1.60 · £1 +3.87

Debutants · first career start

7%−5.8

n=200 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −68.67

First-time headgear · true-first definition

4.2%−8.6

n=95 · A/E 0.35 · £1 −74.15

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

10.5%−2.3

n=19 · A/E 0.73 · £1 +2.33

When favourite

35.5%

n=256 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −13.11

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.3%−1.5

n=203 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −39.37

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

2.7%−10.1

n=73 · A/E 0.35 · £1 −58.38

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Hector Crouch 21.3% vs 12.8% · n=301

In Group / Graded races 2.7% vs 12.8% · n=73

In Class 1 2.8% vs 12.8% · n=72

With C&D winners 21.4% vs 12.8% · n=126

On last-time-out winners 20.4% vs 12.8% · n=216

With Oisin Murphy 23.1% vs 12.8% · n=52

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,774 227 12.8% −488.31

Hurdle 11 2 18.2% −2.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 660 102 15.5% −94.35

Good to Firm 408 43 10.5% −188.43

Good 394 50 12.7% −54.41

Good to Soft 150 16 10.7% −68.37

Soft 140 16 11.4% −66.69

Heavy 28 1 3.6% −15.00

Firm 5 1 20% −3.56

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chelmsford City (AW) 155 29 18.7% −15.19

Kempton (AW) 144 19 13.2% −4.69

Yarmouth 143 24 16.8% −20.58

Wolverhampton (AW) 135 27 20% −13.24

Southwell (AW) 100 10 10% −55.03

Windsor 93 10 10.8% −39.26

Lingfield (AW) 78 13 16.7% +21.47

Newmarket 73 8 11% −11.88

Ascot 67 4 6% −14.50

Newmarket 63 3 4.8% −50.00

Ripon 62 8 12.9% −30.94

Goodwood 53 6 11.3% +3.00

Chester 53 8 15.1% +32.00

Nottingham 52 7 13.5% −24.65

Doncaster 49 9 18.4% −14.76

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 565 79 14% −194.94

Class 4 486 62 12.8% −115.35

Class 6 287 41 14.3% −69.06

Class 2 221 26 11.8% −23.98

Class 3 151 19 12.6% −27.10

Class 1 72 2 2.8% −57.38

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 286 97 33.9% 1.05 −20.24

2nd–3rd fav 487 83 17% 0.96 −78.57

4th–6th fav 564 36 6.4% 0.78 −197.00

7th+ in betting 448 13 2.9% 0.89 −195.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Stone Circle (IRE) 32 5 12 30 Oct 24

True Courage (GB) 31 6 9 3 Jan 25

Miss Harmony (GB)then David Evans 31 2 6 14 Oct 24

Duke Of Oxford (GB) 29 8 13 19 Aug 26

Brave Nation (IRE)then Michael Attwater 29 3 9 11 Apr 26

Adjuvant (IRE) 26 2 6 5 Jun 26

Gold Star Hero (IRE) 23 6 10 17 Oct 26

Cock And Bull (IRE)then Emmet Mullins 23 4 10 27 Sep 25

At Liberty (IRE)then Michael Appleby 23 3 9 7 Oct 23

A Major Payne (GB) 22 3 15 30 Aug 26

Doves Of Peace (IRE)then Clare Hobson 22 2 9 4 Dec 24

Let's Dream (GB) 21 4 8 14 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 259 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 56 had their first archived run for this yard.

26 have since run for another yard, most often for Sam England (2) and Tom Ward (2); 34 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

2 from 17 11.8% · −1.0pts vs baseline

Last 14 days11.8%

5-season base12.8%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

20193014121112139131114

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderHector Crouch

17% of all rides
21.3% SR · A/E 1.30

RiderRWSR£1

Hector Crouch 301 64 21.3% +15.07

Dylan Hogan 152 14 9.2% −73.41

Callum Shepherd 146 17 11.6% −61.42

David Egan 87 9 10.3% −18.87

Kieran Shoemark 74 8 10.8% −21.33

Joe Bradnam 69 6 8.7% −34.50

Oisin Murphy 52 12 23.1% +1.17

Saffie Osborne 52 6 11.5% −20.12

Kevin Stott 48 7 14.6% −5.62

Daniel Muscutt 46 5 10.9% −26.00

Callum Rodriguez 31 4 12.9% −15.02

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,058

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£17.5m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 75 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Motivator (GB) — Vodafone Derby Stakes (Group 1) Epsom Downs · Jun 2005 · Group 1

£725,000

Sariska (GB) — Darley Irish Oaks (group 1) Curragh · Jul 2009 · Group 1

£280,500

Art Connoisseur (IRE) — Golden Jubilee Stakes (Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Ascot · Jun 2009 · Group 1

£278,457

Notable horses

True Courage (GB) Big Orange (GB) Red Evie (IRE) Stone Circle (IRE) Allied Powers (IRE) Duke Of Oxford (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Starspangledbanner (AUS) 16.3% · 15–92

Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,145 runs since 2008 (659 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.5% from 1,187.

No Nay Never (USA) 12.1% · 8–66

Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,307 runs since 2008 (704 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9% from 612. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.6% from 185.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 9.2% · 6–65

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,150 runs since 2008 (1,099 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 953.

Kingman (GB) 20.6% · 13–63

Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,470 runs since 2008 (775 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11.1% from 959. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.

Sea The Moon (GER) 16.7% · 9–54

Progeny have won 12.1% of 4,538 runs since 2008 (500 horses).

New Bay (GB) 10.2% · 5–49

Progeny have won 14.3% of 3,939 runs since 2008 (420 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 10.8% from 102.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,148 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,148 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 January 2005 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Ballybunion (IRE)J: Callum Shepherd bettingsites.co.uk New Betting Sites Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 3/1F

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Louis The Fifth (IRE)J: Callum Shepherd bettingsites.co.uk Free Bets Offers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 12/1

19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Go Lockers Go (GB)J: Callum Shepherd bettingsites.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 17/2

19 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Moriarty Moon (GB)J: Oisin Orr Download The At The Races App Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 8/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Gold Star Hero (IRE)J: Jason Hart William Hill Catterick Dash Handicap StakesClass 2 · 5f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 7/2

16 Oct 26 Haydock Resemblance (IRE)J: Hector Crouch Vantage Consulting Powered By Requidex Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Heavy · 9 ran 3rd 6/4F

16 Oct 26 Haydock Top Of The World (IRE)J: Hector Crouch British Stallion Studs Future Stayers EBF Maiden Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 8f · Heavy · 6 ran 3rd 18/1

15 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Rajeko (IRE)J: Hector Crouch Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 12/1

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Let's Dream (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Hospitality At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 10f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 7th 125/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Mr Bollinger (USA)J: Hector Crouch Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 6 ran 5th 7/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Heavenly Parole (GB)J: Billy Loughnane Juddmonte EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 3rd 12/1

12 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) One Of The Boys (IRE)J: Hector Crouch Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 7 ran 1st 4/1

12 Oct 26 Yarmouth Koffee And Kale (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Quinnbet Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 5/2

11 Oct 26 Goodwood Wild Violet (FR)J: Callum Shepherd Virgin Bet A Good Bet Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 40/1

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Go Lockers Go (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Pepsi Max Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 11/2

08 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Whiskey Galore (GB)J: Callum Shepherd Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 4/1

07 Oct 26 Nottingham Akaraka (GB)J: Hector Crouch British Stallion Studs Ebf Nursery Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 3rd 11/10F

06 Oct 26 Leicester Moriarty Moon (GB)J: David Egan Mick & Linda New Inn Enderby Cheers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 6th 22/1

05 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Lady Branksome (IRE)J: Hector Crouch Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 11/8F

05 Oct 26 Yarmouth Koffee And Kale (GB)J: Joe Bradnam White Swan Fish & Seafood Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 2nd 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael Bell's strike rate?: Michael Bell has won 229 of 1,785 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Bell do best at?: Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 27 wins from 135 runners (20%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Michael Bell?: Hector Crouch, with 301 runners since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 64 (21.3%).
Is Michael Bell in form?: In the last 14 days: 17 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 11.8%. That is in line with the baseline of 12.8% since 2022.
What is Michael Bell's Fair A/E?: 0.96, from 1,775 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.