3:38 Plumpton
This Class 5 handicap hurdle over 3m217y at Plumpton on good ground brings together a field of seven where recent form is mixed and stamina will be tested. The KTB Fit scores identify Jefe Triunfo as the top-rated on 58, narrowly ahead of Mancero on 55, with Camino Rocio and French Diablo completing the principals. Overall the numbers point to a competitive but winnable heat for a horse that can rediscover its best form at the trip.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types. Camino Rocio is the clear front-runner and will set the pace, with French Diablo and Stage Show expected to race prominently and apply pressure from the early stages. The remaining runners, including the selection Jefe Triunfo, are held-up types who will look to produce their effort late off what should be an even gallop. The key question is whether the prominent runners can maintain their effort up the stamina test or if the late closers will be able to reel them in.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Jefe Triunfo KTB Selection58/100
Jefe Triunfo is a useful performer on his day but has been out of form for much of the last year and his three runs here have produced no win or place. He steps up in trip today having failed to get competitive on his only previous attempt at this distance. The trainer has a solid 18% strike rate at Plumpton from a big sample, while the jockey boasts a 24% strike rate at the track. With a recent form line of 807-54 he will be held up as is his usual style and produce his effort late in what should be a genuinely-run race. Connections will be hoping the extra distance brings about a revival on good ground where he has two wins from fourteen runs.
-
2Mancero55/100
Mancero is a useful performer on his recent record with a solid string of placed efforts and two wins in the last six starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question while the first-time headgear is another unknown. The yard has a 19% strike rate at Plumpton from a big sample and he has shown he handles good ground with two wins from ten runs. His recent form of 41P218 demonstrates that he is competitive at this level when on song. Usually held up, he will be ridden to come from off the pace in a race that should be run at a genuine clip. The combination of the new headgear and longer distance makes him an interesting contender.
-
3Camino Rocio51/100
Camino Rocio is a useful performer who has been knocking on the door on several occasions this season but has also shown a tendency to disappoint when the pressure is on. He has already been tried over this trip twice without success and steps up in distance again today from a recent poor effort over shorter. The yard's solid 18% strike rate at Plumpton offers some encouragement but his own pulled-up effort here previously is a clear negative. With a recent form line of 222-P4 he is the declared front-runner and will set the pace in what is expected to be a genuinely-run contest. On good ground he has three wins from sixteen starts and the booking of Harry Skelton, who has a 19% strike rate at the track, is a positive.
-
4French Diablo44/100
French Diablo is a fair performer on the balance of his form. He showed ability when winning at this level last month before a lesser effort last time, though he now steps up in trip as a fresh question. The trainer has only three runs at Plumpton which is too small a sample to judge, but the jockey has a 15% strike rate at the course. His recent form reads -P31P5 and he is likely to race prominently, sitting close to the pace that should be set by Camino Rocio. With two runs on good ground yielding no win or place he remains relatively unexposed at this trip and could have a say if the step up in distance suits.
-
5Stage Show41/100
Stage Show is a fair performer who has been consistent enough around this level but arrives on the back of two modest efforts. He showed a bit of promise when fourth on his only previous start at Plumpton and holds a 9% strike-rate trainer record here. This is a big step up in trip from 1m4f and, while he has tried the distance once before without success, it remains an unknown for him on good ground where he is only 1-14.
-
6Pooroldmackley40/100
Pooroldmackley is a fair performer who has shown consistent form of late with two placed efforts from his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at this distance while his going record on good ground reads a respectable two wins from eleven runs. The yard has no runners recorded at Plumpton and this is the horse's first appearance here.
-
7Glorious Mist35/100
Glorious Mist is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and has failed to complete in two of his last three starts. He has shown a bit of ability at this track but his three runs here read PU-9-3 and he is now 0-13 on good ground. Dropping back from 3m2f to today's trip poses a fresh question and the trainer's modest 3% strike-rate at Plumpton adds little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Jefe Triunfo is the KTB Selection. He remains a useful performer on his day and the step up to this trip could spark a revival despite his lack of course success to date. The trainer's healthy record at Plumpton and the jockey's strong strike rate there add to the appeal of a horse that will be coming from off a genuine pace. His main dangers are Mancero, who brings strong recent form and the unknown of first-time headgear, and Camino Rocio, who is likely to set the pace but has disappointed when it matters and carries a poor course record. French Diablo cannot be entirely dismissed if the longer trip brings about further improvement.
KTB Selection Jefe Triunfo
This is the narrative read of the 3:38 Plumpton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Plumpton racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Plumpton results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time today?
Mancero is stepping up in trip for the first time today.
Which runner is the clear front-runner in this race?
Camino Rocio is the clear front-runner and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Plumpton for the yard of the selection Jefe Triunfo?
The trainer has an 18% strike rate at Plumpton from 659 runs.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
Mancero is wearing first-time headgear.
How many wins has Glorious Mist had from his thirteen runs on good ground?
Glorious Mist has zero wins from thirteen runs on good ground.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies