4:15 Curragh
The Tote Irish Cambridgeshire at the Curragh is a competitive 18-runner handicap over a mile on good ground. KTB's Fit ratings identify a clear top five with Big Gossey heading the list on 70, ahead of Rahmi on 65, while Hardy Warrior and Loughrea both sit on 59 and Ribee completes the principals on 57. The overall numbers point to a race where course form, recent consistency and the ability to handle an uncontested lead will be key factors.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader likely to have an uncontested lead, the pace shape is strongly in favour of anything that can get an easy time up front. Loughrea is the only confirmed front-runner among the principals and could be allowed to dictate. The majority of the field, including the selection Big Gossey, Rahmi, Hardy Warrior, Ribee, Booyea, Engines On, Pierre Royal, Lord Massusus, Kalir, Final Voyage, Hellorhighwater, Playin Cool, Johnny Soda, Manton Bay, Slieve Binnian and Genuine Article, are held-up types who will be looking to close late. The key question is whether the clear leader can be reeled in or whether the uncontested advantage proves decisive in a race full of closers.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Big Gossey KTB Selection70/100Big Gossey is a smart performer with a strong record at this track, including seven wins from 34 runs.
- 2Rahmi65/100Rahmi is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track from eight runs.
- 3Hardy Warrior59/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win over this trip and two placed efforts on good ground.
- 4Loughrea59/100Loughrea has shown useful ability with a recent 5-211 record and is 2 from 3 at this trip including a win.
- 5Ribee57/100Ribee is a useful performer who has won once from two starts at this track and holds solid course connections.
- 6Booyea56/100Booyea is a fair performer who has won both here and at today's trip.
- 7Engines On54/100Fair performer who has won twice from five runs at the Curragh and arrives with solid course connections.
- 8Pierre Royal54/100Pierre Royal is a useful performer who has already won over this trip and on this ground.
- 9Lord Massusus50/100Useful performer who has won twice at this track from 13 runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with four wins from 20 starts.
- 10Kalir50/100Kalir is a useful sort who arrives in peak form after two wins in her last three starts.
- 11Final Voyage49/100Useful performer who has run well here a couple of times without winning.
- 12Hellorhighwater46/100Hellorhighwater is a fair sort who arrives in excellent order after three straight placings followed by a ready win last time.
- 13Playin Cool46/100Playin Cool is a fair performer who has shown his best at this track with a placing from three runs here.
- 14Johnny Soda45/100Johnny Soda is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 157112 that includes two wins in his last four starts.
- 15Manton Bay44/100Manton Bay is a fair performer who has shown his best form over this trip, winning two of his three starts at the distance.
- 16Slieve Binnian42/100Slieve Binnian is a fair performer who has won twice at this track from ten runs and also holds a solid record at today's trip.
- 17Dos Mukasan42/100Useful performer who has won twice over this trip but arrives in poor form having been well beaten on his last three starts.
- 18Genuine Article40/100Genuine Article is a fair sort who has run 11 times at this track and placed without winning.
The contenders
Big Gossey KTB Fit 70/100
Big Gossey is a smart performer with a strong record at the Curragh, where he has won seven times from 34 starts. He arrives in excellent recent form shown by figures of 192125 and handles good ground well with three wins and nine places from 18 starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader is likely to get an easy lead. The step up to a mile for the first time poses a fresh question, and the yard's 7% strike rate at the Curragh with an A/E of 0.69 from 645 runs tempers expectations. However the jockey's 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.86 from 31 rides provides a positive counterpoint.
Rahmi KTB Fit 65/100
Rahmi is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track from eight runs at the Curragh. He has shown better form on his last two starts, including a second here last time out, and is another who is usually held up and produces his effort late. The trainer has a solid 10% strike rate at the Curragh from 867 runs with an A/E of 0.93, while the jockey is operating above expectations with a 12% strike rate from 58 rides here and an A/E of 1.57. He has one win from 14 starts on good ground with five places and the overall profile suggests he should be competitive if the race sets up for closers.
Hardy Warrior KTB Fit 59/100
Hardy Warrior is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win over this trip and two placed efforts on good ground from just two starts on the surface. Drawn wide in stall 17 and making his first visit to the Curragh, both of which add an element of guesswork to his prospects. The trainer strikes at 12% here with an A/E of 0.85 from 1345 runs, while the jockey is operating at 8% with an A/E of 0.72 from 2274 rides. Usually held up, he will need the race to unfold favourably given the wide draw and lack of course experience.
Loughrea KTB Fit 59/100
Loughrea has shown useful ability with a recent record of 5-211 and is two from three at this trip including a win. He is one from one at the Curragh and has won both of his starts on good ground. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he could be the one to take advantage of the likely uncontested lead in a race where most others are held up. Both trainer and jockey operate at a 7% strike rate at the Curragh, the trainer from 395 runs with an A/E of 0.98 and the jockey from 360 rides with an A/E of 1.00. His profile suggests he could be dangerous if allowed to dictate.
Ribee KTB Fit 57/100
Ribee is a useful performer who has won once from two starts at this track and holds solid course connections. He has won three times at this trip from 12 attempts but is dropping back in distance today after his latest run over a mile and a half, which adds a question mark. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be among those trying to close on the likely clear leader. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate here from 286 runs with an A/E of 0.92 and the jockey's 7% record at the Curragh from 635 rides with an A/E of 0.75 are both well established but unspectacular.
The rest of the field
BooyeaKTB Fit 56/100
Booyea is a fair performer who has won both here and at today's trip. He showed a bit of spark when second on his penultimate start but was well held last time and has a poor draw in stall 16 to overcome, though the trainer's solid recent record at the Curragh offers some encouragement.
Engines OnKTB Fit 54/100
Engines On is a fair performer who has won twice from five runs at the Curragh and arrives with solid course connections. Recent form has been poor though and he steps up in trip today having last run over 7f, with the trainer holding a strong record here while the jockey's strike-rate is more modest.
Pierre RoyalKTB Fit 54/100
Pierre Royal is a useful performer who has already won over this trip and on this ground. He showed his liking for the Curragh when scoring here on his only previous visit and arrives in decent form after a solid fourth last time, though the trainer's modest record at the track is a slight negative.
Lord MassususKTB Fit 50/100
Lord Massusus is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from 13 runs and also has a solid record at today's trip. He steps up from 7f today which asks a fresh question though he has won over this distance before, with both trainer and jockey operating at a modest strike rate here.
KalirKTB Fit 50/100
Kalir is a useful sort who arrives in peak form after two wins in her last three starts. She has already won over course and distance, and her record on good ground reads positively, though the yard's modest strike rate here is a slight negative.
Final VoyageKTB Fit 49/100
Final Voyage is a useful performer who has run well here a couple of times without winning. Placed once from five starts on good ground and with three wins from 24 starts at this trip the trip and conditions look fine, though the claiming jockey is still seeking her first win from 29 rides here.
HellorhighwaterKTB Fit 46/100
Hellorhighwater is a fair sort who arrives in excellent order after three straight placings followed by a ready win last time. He has already won twice at this trip from just four starts and holds solid course connections through his trainer, though the yard's modest 5% strike rate at the Curragh is a negative.
Playin CoolKTB Fit 46/100
Playin Cool is a fair performer who has shown his best at this track with a placing from three runs here. He has been placed on good ground and at this trip, though he is now dropping back in distance after his latest effort, with the jockey's solid A/E of 1.08 at the track providing some offset to the trainer's modest strike rate.
Johnny SodaKTB Fit 45/100
Johnny Soda is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 157112 that includes two wins in his last four starts. He has already placed on his only run here at the Curragh and holds a strong record on good ground, though the yard's modest 5% strike-rate at the track and the jockey's 0% from 23 rides are both negatives.
Manton BayKTB Fit 44/100
Manton Bay is a fair performer who has shown his best form over this trip, winning two of his three starts at the distance. He has run twice at the Curragh without placing and the yard's modest 4% strike rate here adds little confidence, though the colt does handle good ground.
Slieve BinnianKTB Fit 42/100
Slieve Binnian is a fair performer who has won twice at this track from ten runs and also holds a solid record at today's trip. He drops back from 1m2½f having been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts, with the trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at the Curragh offset by the jockey's stronger 8% record here.
Dos MukasanKTB Fit 42/100
Dos Mukasan is a useful performer who has won twice over this trip but arrives in poor form having been well beaten on his last three starts. He has only one run at the Curragh and that was a heavy defeat, while the trainer's modest record here adds little confidence.
Genuine ArticleKTB Fit 40/100
Genuine Article is a fair sort who has run 11 times at this track and placed without winning. He has been out of form of late but steps back up to a trip he has won at twice from 13 attempts, though the trainer has a modest 6% strike rate here and the jockey is 4% from 56 rides.
KTB verdict
Big Gossey is the KTB Selection. He brings a strong record at the Curragh with seven wins from 34 starts, excellent recent form and a proven ability to handle good ground. Usually held up, he will be hoping the likely uncontested lead collapses late enough for his finishing effort to land the race. His main dangers are Rahmi, who has shown better form on his last two starts including a second here and has a solid trainer-jockey combination at the track, Loughrea, who could take full advantage of the lone-leader shape given his front-running style and course win, and Hardy Warrior, who brings consistent form this year but must overcome a wide draw and lack of experience at the venue.
KTB Selection Big Gossey
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Curragh results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Loughrea, as the only confirmed front-runner among the main contenders and with a run-style of tending to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has Big Gossey recorded at the Curragh?
Seven wins from 34 runs.
What is the trainer's strike rate at the Curragh for the yard of the second-highest rated horse Rahmi?
10% strike rate from 867 runs with an A/E of 0.93.
Which horse is dropping back in distance after a run over a mile and a half?
Ribee, who is a useful performer with a win from two starts at the track.
What is the going record on good ground for Hardy Warrior?
Placed 2 of 2 on good – competitive, no win.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies