5:14 Fontwell
This Class 5 handicap hurdle at Fontwell over 2m5f164y brings together a compact field of six where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 60 and 42. Just Forty heads the KTB rankings on 60 with a useful level of ability on his best days, while Brave Guest, Painted Wolf and That Is Blue follow closely on 55, 54 and 50 respectively. All six are unproven on the ground, several are dropping in class, and most remain relatively lightly raced, setting up an interesting puzzle on a track where the trainer and jockey combinations carry mixed records.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to Just Forty being allowed an uncontested lead from the front. With four of the other five runners being held-up types who produce their effort late, the race is likely to develop into a test of whether anything can close the gap on a clear leader who is allowed to dictate. The key question is whether the step up in trip will play into the hands of the prominent runner or play against the closers who will have plenty to do off a slow early gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Just Forty KTB Selection60/100
Just Forty is a useful performer on his best days and has enough ability to be competitive in this grade. He showed some promise when fifth here on his only visit to Fontwell but has been pulled up on his last two starts and remains lightly raced with only three career runs. The step up in trip is a fresh question while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track is a negative. Michael Madgwick and Harry Kimber combine with a 0/22 record at Fontwell, though the jockey himself holds a 16% strike rate at the venue from 136 rides. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race prominently, he is set to enjoy the uncontested lead indicated by the pace shape. Dropping in class from an OR of 103, he is the KTB Selection.
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2Brave Guest55/100
Brave Guest is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form including a second here over shorter. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the ground remains completely unproven. Trainer Sheena West holds a solid 11% strike rate at Fontwell from 248 runs while the jockey's strike rate is modest from a large sample. Marc Goldstein rides with an 8% strike rate at the track from 594 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be among those trying to close on the clear leader in the latter stages. Rated 97, he arrives off recent form figures of 22U5-7.
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3Painted Wolf54/100
Painted Wolf is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning two of his last three starts before a break. He steps up in trip today having never tried beyond 2m4f, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 10% strike rate here at Fontwell, with Ben Case recording 10% from 77 runs and Ciaran Gethings 10% from 50 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to bridge the gap to the uncontested leader. Rated 103 and dropping in class, his recent form reads P5P21- and he has no course form on record.
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4That Is Blue50/100
That Is Blue has shown consistent form in three runs this year, finishing third each time including over this trip and on this track. The useful level of ability suggested by his placed efforts gives him a solid base, though he remains lightly raced and not fully exposed. Henrietta C Knight has a 15% strike rate from 222 runs at Fontwell while Brendan Powell's 13% from 402 rides here is respectable. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he will be another trying to come from off the pace against the lone leader. Dropping in class from an OR of 97, his recent form is 333-.
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5Atreides49/100
Atreides is a useful performer who has won once from nine starts over this course. He has been placed at today's trip without winning and holds solid course connections through the yard's healthy 16% strike rate here. The unknown ground is the main question mark as he has never run on it. Usually held up, he arrives off recent form of 353036 from an OR of 93 while dropping in class.
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6Ballymoreen42/100
Ballymoreen is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He steps up in trip today having last run over 2m3½f, which asks a fresh question. The Emma Lavelle yard holds a 14% strike rate from 277 runs at Fontwell while Harry Cobden is operating at 22% from 178 rides here. Usually held up, he is rated 93 and dropping in class off recent form figures of 41642-.
KTB verdict
Just Forty is the KTB Selection. He has enough ability to be competitive in this grade on his best days and is perfectly placed to take advantage of the lone-leader pace shape, likely securing an uncontested lead that could prove hard for the held-up types to peg back. His promise when fifth here on his only previous visit adds to the case, even if the recent pulled-up efforts and the trainer's modest strike rate at Fontwell are negatives. The main dangers are Brave Guest, who brings consistent placed form and a second at the track, and Painted Wolf, who showed his best form when winning two of his last three before the break. That Is Blue cannot be dismissed either given his consistency over the trip and course.
KTB Selection Just Forty
This is the narrative read of the 5:14 Fontwell. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Fontwell racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Fontwell results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Fontwell racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Just Forty, as the sole front-runner in a lone-leader pace shape with high confidence.
How many of the field are dropping in class?
Four horses are dropping in class: Just Forty, Painted Wolf, That Is Blue and both field runners Atreides and Ballymoreen.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Fontwell among those represented?
Emma Lavelle with a 14% strike rate from 277 runs, followed by Henrietta C Knight on 15% from 222 runs.
Who holds the best jockey strike rate at Fontwell in this race?
Harry Cobden with a 22% strike rate from 178 rides.
How many runners in the field have course form at Fontwell?
Four runners have course form: Just Forty, Brave Guest, That Is Blue and Atreides.
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