5:45 Chepstow
A Class 3 EBF Novice Stakes over 7f at Chepstow on good ground brings together a small field of six two-year-olds, several of whom remain lightly raced or entirely unexposed. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 54 and 41, reflecting a race where experience is limited and many questions remain unanswered about trip, ground and ability. With no obvious leader in a steadily-run, tactical affair, being handily placed could prove advantageous.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which no horse is likely to seize the initiative from the front. Several runners, including the selection and two of the other main principals, tend to be held up and produce their efforts late, while Time Glory usually settles in midfield. The key question is whether the race will develop enough pace for those coming from behind to land a telling blow or whether the advantage will lie with those positioned more prominently early.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Montgomery Bell KTB Selection54/100Montgomery Bell has only a single run behind him and that was a modest sixth on debut over 6f.
- 2Time Glory52/100Modest performer who has shown mixed form in four runs, finishing a respectable fourth on his penultimate start before a lesser effort last time.
- 3Flight Tracker48/100Lightly raced colt who shaped with promise when second on debut over 1m.
- 4Midgham Man47/100Midgham Man has shown ordinary form in two starts so far, finishing fifth then fourth without suggesting he is anything better than fair at this stage.
- 5Mainshock42/100Mainshock is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
- 6Saxon Lodge41/100Saxon Lodge is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
The contenders
Montgomery Bell KTB Fit 54/100
Montgomery Bell has only a single run behind him, finishing a modest sixth on debut over 6f. The step up to 7f poses a fresh question while the small sample means both his ability and ground preference remain unknown. He steps up in class here having shown only modest form so far. The trainer holds a solid 16% strike rate at Chepstow from 63 runs and the jockey is operating at 21% from 28 rides at the track. Usually held up, he produces his effort late though the evidence is limited. As the KTB Selection he is taken to improve past several rivals who have shown only ordinary form.
Time Glory KTB Fit 52/100
Time Glory is a modest performer who has shown mixed form in four runs, finishing a respectable fourth on his penultimate start before a lesser effort last time. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 779 runs here while the jockey is operating at 18% from 22 rides at the track. He has been placed once from two starts on good ground without winning. Typically settling in midfield, he has experience on his side compared with some of his rivals but still has plenty to find on the figures.
Flight Tracker KTB Fit 48/100
Flight Tracker is a lightly raced colt who shaped with promise when second on debut over 1m. Dropping back to 7f poses a fresh question while the small sample means his ability level remains unclear. The trainer has a solid 23% strike rate at Chepstow from 259 runs and the jockey adds an 11% record at the track from 149 rides. He is unproven on good ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he could be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race if he has the necessary pace to quicken.
Midgham Man KTB Fit 47/100
Midgham Man has shown ordinary form in two starts so far, finishing fifth then fourth without suggesting he is anything better than fair at this stage. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Chepstow from 661 runs while Jack Doughty is operating at 15% here from 46 rides. He has two runs on good ground without winning or placing. Usually held up, he produces his effort late with medium confidence in that assessment. He is being asked a fresh question on trip having failed to trouble the judge in his one attempt at it.
The rest of the field
MainshockKTB Fit 42/100
Mainshock is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 73 runs at Chepstow while the jockey is still seeking her first success from 23 rides at the track.
Saxon LodgeKTB Fit 41/100
Saxon Lodge is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. His pedigree and sales background are the only clues available and the low data confidence means any assessment is tentative. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from two runs at the track while the jockey has an 8% strike rate from 138 rides here.
KTB verdict
Montgomery Bell is the KTB Selection in a race where several runners bring more questions than answers. His modest debut run leaves plenty of scope for improvement, particularly now stepping up to 7f, and the trainer and jockey combination both operate above the expected strike rate at Chepstow. The steadily-run pace should suit his held-up style if he can find the necessary progression. Time Glory brings the most experience but has only shown modest form, while Flight Tracker's promising debut second gives him claims if he handles the drop in trip and the ground. Midgham Man is another who could improve but has yet to show anything above fair level.
KTB Selection Montgomery Bell
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 29 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Montgomery Bell | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Time Glory | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Flight Tracker | 2/5 | William Hill |
| Midgham Man | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Mainshock | 8/1 | William Hill |
| Saxon Lodge | 6/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 5:45 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time having shown mixed form in four previous runs?
Time Glory
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Chepstow among those represented in this race?
Ralph Beckett with 23% from 259 runs
How many of the six runners have no previous racecourse experience?
Two
Which runner shaped with promise when finishing second on debut over 1m?
Flight Tracker
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Chepstow among those riding in this contest?
Ashley Lewis with 21% from 28 rides
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