Ryan Kavanagh
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 140 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.91). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 20% (95 rides). Rides mostly for Ian Williams — 40% of rides in the window.
The record is strongest at Chelmsford City (AW) (27%, n=37), clear of the rider's 9.9% baseline. It is weakest at Lingfield (AW) (2.3% over 86 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20% (n=95, Fair A/E 1.00), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 0% (n=39, Fair A/E 0.00). Ian Williams supplies 40% of the rides and edges the rider's average (12.7% vs 9.9%, A/E 0.97) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (25%, n=72). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 2.4% over 41 rides, 7.5pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record: Lion Ring (IRE) — 5 wins from 26 rides together.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 9.9% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2023→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 707 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 707 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 8 May 2023 to 23 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Ryan Kavanagh's strike rate?
- Ryan Kavanagh has won 70 of 707 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.9% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Ryan Kavanagh do best at?
- Chelmsford City (AW) by strike rate: 10 wins from 37 rides (27%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Ryan Kavanagh ride most for?
- Ian Williams, with 283 rides since 2022 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 36 (12.7%).
- Is Ryan Kavanagh in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 11 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Ryan Kavanagh's Fair A/E?
- 0.91, from 704 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.