7:10 Ballinrobe
The 7:10 at Ballinrobe is a six-runner John Madden & Sons Pro-Am Flat Race over an extended two miles on good to yielding ground. With a field short on experience and little established form, the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 52 and 43, underlining how open the race looks on paper. Iron Sword heads the KTB order on the back of two placed efforts, while the remaining five include four debutants and one other with limited racecourse evidence.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is simply not enough run-style data across the six runners to form a reliable picture. Both Iron Sword and Reafadda are usually held up and tend to produce their effort late, which could mean a steady gallop early on if the others are equally content to settle. The key question is whether the race will develop into a test of stamina or whether one of the debutants can impose a rhythm that plays into their strengths.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Iron Sword KTB Selection52/100
Iron Sword is the KTB Selection. This lightly raced 4-year-old brings the strongest piece of form in the race with a 53 on the board from just two starts. He steps up in trip having been beaten on his only previous attempt at this distance and is expected to come on for the experience. Andrew Slattery operates at a modest 10% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.65 from 71 runs, while claiming jockey Mr A P Ryan boasts a strong 22% strike rate at the track from a smallish sample of 18 rides. The combination of trainer and jockey stats produces a 24/149 (16%) record with an A/E of 0.89. Usually held up, Iron Sword produces his effort late and the good-to-yielding ground remains unproven after one run without a win or place.
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2Le Grand Retour47/100
Le Grand Retour is a debutant so there is little concrete form to go on. Pedigree and sales background offer the main clues to his ability while the yard's solid 13% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 114 runs gives some encouragement. Peter Fahey's overall record at the venue carries an A/E of 1.14. The jockey Mr H C Swan has a modest 7% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 27 rides with an A/E of 0.5 which is a slight negative. By Goliath Du Berlais, whose progeny have a 17% win rate, Le Grand Retour represents an interesting but unproven contender in a race short on established form.
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3Reafadda47/100
Reafadda has shown only modest form in two starts over this trip so far, recording figures of 66. The yard holds a solid 11% strike rate at Ballinrobe from a large sample of 347 runs with an A/E of 1.06. John Patrick Ryan teams up with Brian Barry, whose combined record reads 2/29 (7%) with an A/E of 1.41. The jockey has a 0% strike rate at the track from just one previous ride. Usually held up with limited evidence, Reafadda produces his effort late and has one run on good to yielding without a win or place. With so few runs on the board the overall picture remains tentative.
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4Real Lark46/100
Real Lark is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the form book offers nothing concrete. The pedigree and sales background are the main pointers here yet the low data confidence means any conclusions remain tentative. By Vadamos, whose progeny have a 9% win rate, he lines up for John Patrick Ryan who has a solid 11% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 347 runs with an A/E of 1.06. Jockey Miss L Costello has had only four rides at the track which is too small a sample to judge and carries a 0% strike rate. In a race where experience is at a premium, Real Lark must be judged almost entirely on what his connections can bring to the table.
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5Walkineezy46/100
Walkineezy is lightly raced with only two runs to go on and has been beaten a long way in both starts. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 207 runs with an A/E of 0.96, but jockey Mr D Doyle operates at a modest 4% here from 27 rides with an A/E of 0.42. Unproven on good to yielding ground and with no course form, he is hard to assess with any confidence.
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6Gaelic Seer43/100
Gaelic Seer is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues and the low data confidence means any conclusions are tentative. Trainer Kiely has a 0% strike rate at Ballinrobe from just four runs while jockey Mr J L Gleeson has a solid 19% strike rate here from 16 rides with an A/E of 1.11. The trainer-jockey combination shows 7/62 (11%) with an A/E of 0.79.
KTB verdict
Iron Sword is the KTB Selection and brings the most relevant form to the table with a 53 from two starts. He is entitled to improve for the step up in trip and the booking of a jockey who has struck at a 22% rate at Ballinrobe adds to the appeal. The race is short on depth and several of his rivals are making their debut or have shown only modest form, so the selection can build on his placed efforts. Le Grand Retour and Reafadda are the most obvious dangers, the former on pedigree and yard form, the latter on the back of two runs over the trip and a trainer who knows the track well.
KTB Selection Iron Sword
This is the narrative read of the 7:10 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ballinrobe results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest placed form in the field?
Iron Sword, who has recorded a 53 from two starts.
How many debutants line up in this six-runner race?
Four debutants: Le Grand Retour, Real Lark, Gaelic Seer and the fifth horse is not a debutant.
What is the trainer strike rate at Ballinrobe for the handler of the KTB Selection?
Andrew Slattery has a 10% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.65 from 71 runs.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at the track among those riding in this race?
Mr A P Ryan with a 22% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 18 rides and an A/E of 2.08.
Which two runners are noted as usually held up?
Iron Sword and Reafadda.
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