Mr D Doyle
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 100 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.75). Rides mostly for Timothy Doyle — 52% of rides in the window.
The record is strongest at Cork (9.7%, n=31), clear of the rider's 5.5% baseline. It is weakest at Punchestown (1.6% over 61 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 4% strike, Fair A/E 0.69 and −51.50 to a £1 stake over 100 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Timothy Doyle supplies 52% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (3.6%, A/E 0.56). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 1.7% over 60 rides, 3.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider off a 15-30-day break: Fair A/E 0.32 across 119 rides (2.5% strike, −105.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. Seasonally, the rider fires Sep–Nov.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2022→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 476 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 476 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 February 2022 to 22 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Mr D Doyle's strike rate?
- Mr D Doyle has won 26 of 476 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 5.5% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Mr D Doyle do best at?
- Cork by strike rate: 3 wins from 31 rides (9.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Mr D Doyle ride most for?
- Timothy Doyle, with 249 rides since 2022 — 52% of the total. That pairing has won 9 (3.6%).
- Is Mr D Doyle in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Mr D Doyle's Fair A/E?
- 0.75, from 476 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.