What is Mr H C Swan's strike rate?

Mr H C Swan has won 95 of 683 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 13.9% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Mr H C Swan do best at?

Fairyhouse by strike rate: 11 wins from 49 rides (22.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Mr H C Swan ride most for?

Gordon Elliott, with 346 rides since 2022 — 51% of the total. That pairing has won 66 (19.1%).

Is Mr H C Swan in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Mr H C Swan's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 682 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Mr H C Swan

683 rides in the last 5 seasons · 470 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 6 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)

from 1 Jan 2022

95–683

Wins / Runs

13.9%

Strike rate

n=683

262 (38%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=682 · 0.82 incl. margin

−198.09

£1 level stake

n=683 at SP · −29.0%

£1.26m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

15.3%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 140 times a season, winning on 14% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.00). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (57 rides). Rides mostly for Gordon Elliott — 51% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 683 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Feb Fresh horses: 17.6% 43.6% when favourite Gordon Elliott: 19.1% from 346 LTO winners: 19.3% Rides the favourite in 15% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Fairyhouse (22.4%, n=49), clear of the rider's 13.9% baseline. It is weakest at Galway (4.1% over 49 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 19.3% (n=57, Fair A/E 1.04), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 6.1% (n=49, Fair A/E 0.72). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 17.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.23 and +15.64 to a £1 stake over 119 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet rides in big fields of 14 or more: 6.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.73 and −114.92 to a £1 stake over 211 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Gordon Elliott supplies 51% of the rides and beats the rider's average (19.1% vs 13.9%, A/E 1.00) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly over 2m5f – 3m — 4.2% over 48 rides, 9.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider in Chase races: Fair A/E 0.65 across 74 rides (5.4% strike, −46.62 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Goffs Defender Bumper at Punchestown (Apr 2024, £59,000). Seasonally, the rider fires Nov–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.3%−2.6

n=462 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −219.64

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

19.3%+5.4

n=57 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −6.75

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

17.6%+3.7

n=119 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +15.64

When favourite

43.6%

n=101 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +1.51

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

13%−0.9

n=391 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −129.78

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.6%−7.3

n=211 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −114.92

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.1%−7.8

n=49 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −17.75

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Galway 4.1% vs 13.9% · n=49

Over 2m5f – 3m 4.2% vs 13.9% · n=48

In Chase races 5.4% vs 13.9% · n=74

At Fairyhouse 22.4% vs 13.9% · n=49

Off a 8-14-day break 5.1% vs 13.9% · n=39

In Class 1 5.9% vs 13.9% · n=51

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

NH Flat 428 65 15.2% −122.05

Flat 113 19 16.8% −24.67

Chase 74 4 5.4% −46.62

Hurdle 68 7 10.3% −4.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 268 37 13.8% −63.97

Good 182 26 14.3% −38.77

Good to Soft 127 14 11% −90.33

Heavy 93 15 16.1% −25.02

Standard (AW) 13 3 23.1% +20.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 74 9 12.2% −19.80

Galway 49 2 4.1% −36.17

Fairyhouse 49 11 22.4% +16.80

Leopardstown 31 5 16.1% −14.75

Listowel 30 5 16.7% −14.25

Cork 28 3 10.7% −12.00

Killarney 28 2 7.1% −18.50

Clonmel 28 6 21.4% +1.78

Thurles 27 0 0% −27.00

Naas 27 5 18.5% −10.54

Wexford 27 3 11.1% −10.80

Limerick 26 3 11.5% −10.67

Down Royal 25 7 28% +10.31

Downpatrick 25 4 16% −13.25

Ballinrobe 25 2 8% −18.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 51 3 5.9% −19.75

Class 2 6 0 0% −6.00

Class 3 3 0 0% −3.00

Class 5 3 1 33.3% −1.50

Class 4 2 1 50% −0.27

Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 112 44 39.3% 1.11 −9.49

2nd–3rd fav 217 35 16.1% 0.96 −47.10

4th–6th fav 199 12 6% 0.80 −80.50

7th+ in betting 155 4 2.6% 0.93 −61.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

77.5% completed · 142 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 74 67.6% 4 2 17 1 0

Hurdle 68 88.2% 1 1 5 1 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

I Am Shadow (IRE) 7 1 4 10 Aug 23

Music Of Life (IRE) 6 0 2 8 Nov 25

Our Soldier (IRE) 4 1 2 10 Oct 26

Arch Empire (FR) 4 0 2 14 Jul 26

Miss Corby (IRE) 4 2 2 16 Apr 26

Koktail Brut (FR) 4 1 2 1 May 25

Machismo (IRE) 4 0 0 7 Oct 24

Gers Gigi (IRE) 4 1 4 6 Jul 24

The Enabler (IRE) 4 2 3 3 Feb 24

Miss Agusta (IRE) 4 0 1 26 Apr 23

Mind Your Money (GB) 4 2 3 28 Jul 22

Hartford (IRE) 3 0 2 4 Nov 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 470 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 3

Only 3 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1715715101913711142626

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardGordon Elliott

51% of all rides
19.1% SR · A/E 1.00

TrainerRWSR£1

Gordon Elliott 346 66 19.1% −100.41

John Patrick Ryan 38 2 5.3% −28.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→

104

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.37m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 23 wins

Sermandzarak (FR) — Goffs Defender Bumper Punchestown · Apr 2024

£59,000

Brighterdaysahead (FR) — Tattersalls Ireland George Mernagh Memorial Sales Bumper Fairyhouse · Apr 2023

£59,000

Fauda (FR) — Prix Colonel de la Horie - Chall. de l'Obst. Equinaxy (Handicap Chase) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Mar 2026

£23,870

Notable horses

On Eagles Wings (IRE) Mind Your Money (GB) The Enabler (IRE) Miss Corby (IRE) Wingmen (IRE) Stellar Story (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Walk In The Park (IRE) 20% · 12–60

Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,102 runs since 2011 (712 horses).

Getaway (GER) 6.7% · 2–30

Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,040 runs since 2016 (1,034 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

No Risk At All (FR) 19.2% · 5–26

Progeny have won 14.5% of 3,177 runs since 2016 (440 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 17.6% from 957.

Yeats (IRE) 21.1% · 4–19

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,857 runs since 2013 (709 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Blue Bresil (FR) 20% · 3–15

Progeny have won 12.1% of 3,569 runs since 2013 (469 horses).

Flemensfirth (USA) 13.3% · 2–15

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,298 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 769 · newest first

The latest 50 of 769 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 23 June 2018 to 8 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

08 Nov 26 Naas (IRE) Ballydonagh Girl (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 1st 6/5F

05 Nov 26 Clonmel (IRE) Greenbrier (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott racingtv.com/freetrial Flat Race16.5f · Good · 12 ran 4th 9/2

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Hartford (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott Thank You To All Our Sponsors & Supporters In 2026 (c & G) (pro/am) Flat Race17f · Yielding · 7 ran 2nd 4/7F

30 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Premier Division (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott WTW Willis Flat Race17f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 1st 4/9F

25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Va La Vie (IRE)T: Peter Fahey Tom Dempsey Flooring 4-Y-O Fillies (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 6 ran 2nd 4/1

22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Romella (IRE)T: Brendan Maurice Walsh Kilclooney Woods (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 10th 33/1

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Shosholoza (IRE)T: Joseph Patrick O'Brien Every Race, Every Moment 1xBet.ie Amateur Riders Derby (Q.R.) Race12f · Yielding · 8 ran 4th 6/5F

17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Dinner Dance (IRE)T: Gordon Elliott Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race17f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 5th 100/30

14 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Time Takes Time (IRE)T: D Buckley Matchbook €50,000 Graduation Series Flat Race16.5f · Good · 11 ran 10th 100/1

11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Klassical Kid (IRE)T: Colm Ryan Fitzgerald's Woodlands House Hotel (Pro/Am) Flat Race19f · Good · 7 ran 1st 5/1

10 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Our Soldier (IRE)T: Denis Gerard Hogan O'Neills.com Irish EBF Beginners Steeplechase21f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 11/2

06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Ellen Imlach (FR)T: Gordon Elliott Race In Pink On October 25th Flat Race16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 8 ran 6th 12/1

02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Missouri Snow (IRE)T: Nigel Thomas Slevin Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mucklemeg Mares Flat Race (Listed)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 50/1

29 Sep 26 Sedgefield Red Shea (IRE)T: Cian Hughes Fairlight Studios Cafe @ Sedgefield Racecourse Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 3 ran 1st 8/11F

28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Champagne Order (IRE)T: T J O'Mara GavinLynchRacing.com Flat Race15.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 6th 100/1

27 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Justenzia (IRE)T: Denis Gerard Hogan Kwiff Supercharged Betting (Q.R.) Handicap10f · Heavy · 18 ran 2nd 4/1C

26 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Imboundtosay (IRE)T: W M Roper Listowel Printing Works Slan Abhaile (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good · 6 ran 4th 25/1

25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) She Was The One (IRE)T: Denis Gerard Hogan Shanahan Power Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 1st 15/8F

24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Real Lark (IRE)T: John Patrick Ryan Kevin McManus Bookmaker Flat Race16f · Good · 9 ran 7th 125/1

24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Our Soldier (IRE)T: Denis Gerard Hogan Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Steeplechase22f · Good · 11 ran 7th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 10 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 1) · to 4 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Mr H C Swan's strike rate?: Mr H C Swan has won 95 of 683 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 13.9% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Mr H C Swan do best at?: Fairyhouse by strike rate: 11 wins from 49 rides (22.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Mr H C Swan ride most for?: Gordon Elliott, with 346 rides since 2022 — 51% of the total. That pairing has won 66 (19.1%).
Is Mr H C Swan in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 3 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Mr H C Swan's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 682 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.