6:40 Ballinrobe
The 6:40 Ballinrobe is an Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Steeplechase over 2m1f48y on good to yielding ground with a field of 19. It is a competitive handicap where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Farrokh on 67 and Leave In Secret on 66, with the remainder of the principals clustered between 59 and 56. The overall KTB numbers point to a race in which recent form, course records and trainer trends at Ballinrobe will carry particular weight.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is muddling and tactical with medium confidence and no obvious front-runner. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to be run with a good gallop up front coming from the prominent runners among the outsiders. The key question is whether those held up can pick their way through in a race that should suit those ridden close to the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Farrokh KTB Selection67/100
Farrokh is a smart performer who ran well when third here over hurdles last season and has already shown his form this spring with a win and a solid fourth. He drops back in trip today having last run over two and a half miles, which looks a sensible move given he has placed at this distance before. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Barry Connell has a 25% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 1.59 from 20 runs, though jockey Liam McKenna's 2% strike rate from 50 rides at the track is a clear negative. He has one win and three places from six starts on good to yielding ground and was placed on his only previous run at Ballinrobe.
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2Leave In Secret66/100
Leave In Secret is a smart performer who won on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe and arrives in decent nick after a string of placed efforts. He drops back in trip today having been placed over this distance without winning, while he has shown he handles good to yielding ground with one win and three places from six starts. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Thomas Gibney has a 17% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 1.46 from 69 runs, but jockey James Smith is still seeking his first course winner from 19 rides. He has won once from one run at the track.
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3Stoneyford Lady59/100
Stoneyford Lady is a useful mare who has shown consistent form this year without winning. She has been competitive on good to yielding ground with one place from four starts and now drops back in trip having failed to land a blow at this distance in three previous attempts. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late. Trainer Henry De Bromhead holds a 12% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.66 from 147 runs, while this is a first run here for both the horse and jockey Danny Power who has a neutral score at the track.
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4Lady Doyanne57/100
Lady Doyanne is a smart performer who has finished second in both starts this season and already has a win on this ground. She steps up in trip having won at this distance on her only previous attempt and now tries first-time headgear. The six-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late. Trainer Henry De Bromhead has a 12% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.66 from 147 runs, while jockey Alan O'Sullivan operates at 3% from 30 rides here with an A/E of 0.4.
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5Mo Ghille Mar56/100
Mo Ghille Mar is a smart performer who has won twice on this ground from just three attempts and also has a solid record at today's trip with two wins from four starts. His recent form of 17741 shows consistent ability at this level. The five-year-old is usually held up though the run-style read carries medium confidence. Trainer John Joseph Hanlon has a poor 1% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 0.15 from 146 runs, while jockey Harry Sexton is winless from 17 rides here and this represents the horse's first run at the track.
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6Ballybrittas55/100
Ballybrittas is a useful performer with solid recent form including a win and a third. He has shown some ability on good to yielding ground but steps up in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance on his only previous attempt. Trainer P J Rothwell holds a 10% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 1.04 from 403 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first win from five rides at the track.
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7Claude55/100
Claude is a useful performer who has shown some ability on this track when fifth here on his only previous visit. He steps up in trip today having been placed once over this distance without winning, though his recent form figures of P-0304 suggest he is not in the best of heart. Trainer Sarah Joanna Connell has no previous runners at Ballinrobe while the jockey operates at a 9% strike rate from 22 rides here.
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8Custers Mistake54/100
Custers Mistake is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning at this trip two starts back before a solid second last time. He has run twice at Ballinrobe without placing and is now dropping back from 2m4f to a distance at which he is yet to score. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate here from 110 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 13 rides at the track.
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9Bossing It54/100
Bossing It is a useful performer who has been competitive without winning on good to yielding ground. He steps up in trip today having placed once in three runs at this distance while his recent form of 0-2585 shows consistent but unspectacular efforts. Both trainer and jockey operate at a 6% strike rate here.
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10Phoenix Arizona51/100
Phoenix Arizona is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form this year without winning. He drops back in trip today having been placed over this distance before though he has failed to place in three runs on this sort of ground. Trainer John J Cullen has a 0% strike-rate at Ballinrobe while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
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11Le Diablo50/100
Le Diablo is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track without winning. He drops back in trip today having already scored over this distance in the past, though his recent efforts on good to yielding ground have produced no wins or places from four starts. Trainer John Patrick Ryan holds a solid record here while the jockey is still seeking a first course success from five rides.
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12Feet On The Ground48/100
Feet On The Ground is a fair performer who has shown nothing better than modest placed form this year and arrives with a recent string of ordinary efforts. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up in trip for the first time on ground he has never tackled. Trainer James William Hannon has no recorded runners at Ballinrobe.
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13Poppycon46/100
Poppycon is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a fourth at Downpatrick last time. He drops back in trip having already shown he can be competitive at this distance, while his sole run on good to yielding ground produced a placing. Trainer Eoin Doyle's 7% strike rate at Ballinrobe from 86 runs is a negative, though the jockey's record here is too small to read anything into.
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14Sayitfirst45/100
Sayitfirst is a useful performer who has shown plenty of placed form but has failed to win in 37 starts. Four runs at this track have produced no better than fifth and the yard has a 0% strike-rate here from 20 runners. He steps up in trip today having won once at this distance in the past, while the jockey also has a 0% record from nine rides at Ballinrobe.
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15Roccabaker45/100
Roccabaker is a useful performer who has been out of sorts on his last three starts and was pulled up on his final outing. He drops back in trip today having failed to make the frame in his only previous run at this distance while his record on good to yielding ground is modest from just two attempts. The trainer has a 4% strike rate here from 51 runs though the jockey's figures read a bit better.
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16Coole Vision45/100
Coole Vision is a fair performer on his best days but has been well below that level in both starts this year. He has never won or placed in ten career runs and finished a remote 14th on his only previous visit to Ballinrobe. The drop back in trip is an unknown and he remains unproven on good to yielding ground.
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17Itsalonglongroad45/100
Itsalonglongroad is a useful performer who has won over this trip in the past and also has a victory here at Ballinrobe from seven runs. Recent form is mixed with a third last time but he has been out of sorts for much of the last year. Trainer David O'Sullivan has only had one runner at the track so that side remains unproven while the jockey's modest strike rate here adds little confidence.
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18Political Stance44/100
Political Stance is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He showed little at this track on his only previous visit and drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate from 103 runs here.
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19Fedneys Park43/100
Fedneys Park is a useful performer on the balance of his form and ratings but has been well below that level in two runs this year. He drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance on his previous two attempts. First-time headgear is now fitted and the yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Ballinrobe from a big sample of runners.
KTB verdict
Farrokh looks the pick on KTB ratings and is taken as the selection. A smart performer with placed form at the track and a recent win and fourth to his name, the drop back in trip looks ideal and the yard's strong record at Ballinrobe adds to his claims even if the jockey's figures are a concern. Leave In Secret is the obvious danger having won on his only previous visit here and arriving in good order, while Stoneyford Lady, Lady Doyanne and Mo Ghille Mar are the other principals who can feature in what looks a tight race.
KTB Selection Farrokh
This is the narrative read of the 6:40 Ballinrobe. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ballinrobe racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ballinrobe results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and is the KTB Selection?
Farrokh with a KTB Fit Score of 67/100.
How many of the principals are usually held up in running?
All five principals are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horse has course winning form at Ballinrobe?
Leave In Secret won here on his only previous visit, and Itsalonglongroad has also won here.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Ballinrobe among those with meaningful data?
Barry Connell has a 25% strike rate at Ballinrobe with an A/E of 1.59 from 20 runs, and Thomas Gibney has a 17% strike rate with an A/E of 1.46 from 69 runs.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear in this race?
Lady Doyanne, Feet On The Ground and Fedneys Park are all wearing first-time headgear.
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