Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−11.3
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.9%−5.4
n=17 · A/E 0.35 · £1 −15.38
Debutants · first career start
16.7%+5.4
n=12 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −7.02
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−11.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
22.2%
n=18 · A/E 0.55 · £1 −9.66
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−11.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
15%+3.7
n=20 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −6.88
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking14.3% vs 11.3% · n=35
In Flat races11.3% vs 11.3% · n=71 · A/E 0.61
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft19526.3%+2.12
Standard (AW)1800%−18.00
Good13215.4%−8.50
Good to Soft1000%−10.00
Heavy9111.1%−6.90
Good to Firm200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly17317.6%−8.00
Deauville1516.7%−12.90
Saint-Cloud15426.7%+1.62
Longchamp (FR)800%−8.00
Le Mans (FR)400%−4.00
Clairefontaine (FR)300%−3.00
Compiegne (FR)300%−3.00
Lyon-La Soie (FR)200%−2.00
Fontainebleau (FR)200%−2.00
Toulouse (FR)100%−1.00
Angers (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 125312%−11.88
Class 22150%+3.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite18422.2%0.55−9.66
2nd–3rd fav21419%1.13−1.62
4th–6th fav2100%0.00−21.00
7th+ in betting1100%0.00−11.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f28310.7%−17.12
6f – 7f19315.8%−11.26
1m2f – 1m4f1715.9%−14.90
1m5f – 2m7114.3%+0.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps200%−2.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2727.4%−22.38
11-13 runners1815.6%−11.00
5-7 runners18527.8%−1.90
14-16 runners500%−5.00
2-4 runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 62 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 48 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A Fabre (47); 12 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard, most often for A Fabre (6); 54 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Steady
2 from 1711.8% · +0.5pts vs baseline
Last 14 days11.8%
Lifetime base11.3%
Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
·····100··1233·
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 18% of 7,536 runs since 2016 (882 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 329. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.2% from 270.
Progeny have won 15.7% of 9,979 runs since 2013 (1,118 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 18.9% from 1,503. Weakest on Heavy going: 9.4% from 457. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.5% from 139.
Progeny have won 10.7% of 938 runs since 2024 (165 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.9% from 282.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 61 · newest first
The latest 50 of 61 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 24 June 2026 to 3 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is A & L Fabre's strike rate?
A & L Fabre has won 8 of 71 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.3% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is A & L Fabre in form?
In the last 14 days: 17 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 11.8%. That is in line with the baseline of 11.3% since 2008.
What is A & L Fabre's Fair A/E?
0.61, from 69 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
A & L Fabre·SR 11.3%·A/E 0.61·Steady
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