Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 5.1%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−4.0
n=39 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −39.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.0
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.0
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.0
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.0
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
100%
n=1 · A/E 5.00 · £1 +3.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.1%+1.1
n=39 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −21.80
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
9.5%+5.5
n=21 · A/E 1.57 · £1 −12.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Compiegne (FR)6.4% vs 4% · n=47
In Chase races6.3% vs 4% · n=48
With a new jockey booking1.8% vs 4% · n=55
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase4836.3%−29.10
Hurdle4712.1%−39.20
Flat400%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Heavy5523.6%−45.50
Soft3925.1%−21.80
Good300%−3.00
Good to Soft200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Compiegne (FR)4736.4%−30.70
Auteuil (FR)3213.1%−23.60
Senonnes-Pouance (FR)400%−4.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)400%−4.00
Pau (FR)200%−2.00
Clairefontaine (FR)200%−2.00
Nantes (FR)200%−2.00
Dieppe (FR)100%−1.00
Meslay-Du-Maine (FR)100%—
Saint-Brieuc (FR)100%—
Saint-Malo (FR)100%−1.00
Fontainebleau (FR)100%−1.00
Craon (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 12129.5%−12.50
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 4200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite11100%5.00+3.20
2nd–3rd fav10110%0.71−5.70
4th–6th fav3425.9%0.86−17.80
7th+ in betting5200%0.00−52.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f8244.9%−55.30
2m5f – 3m900%−9.00
1m5f – 2m600%−6.00
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20223500%−35.00
202329310.3%−10.10
2024700%−7.00
20251715.9%−9.20
20261100%−11.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1900%−19.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners3412.9%−28.80
11-13 runners3026.7%−13.80
5-7 runners2114.8%−15.70
14-16 runners1100%−11.00
17+ runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 29 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 29 horses listed, 1 arrived from another yard in our archive; 28 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard, most often for M Seror (2); 25 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
·0510100000000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Geelong Sport (FR) — Prix Romati (Chase) (5yo+) (Turf) Compiegne (FR) · May 2023 · Grade 3
£60,133
Geelong Sport (FR) — Prix Solitaire (Chase) () (5yo+) (Turf) Compiegne (FR) · Mar 2023 · Listed
Progeny have won 10.5% of 2,918 runs since 2008 (285 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.5% from 341. Weakest on Heavy going: 7.2% from 237. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.7% from 228.
Progeny have won 9.4% of 754 runs since 2008 (111 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.6% from 151. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5.7% from 140.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 466 · newest first
The latest 50 of 466 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 November 2006 to 14 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is B Lefevre's strike rate?
B Lefevre has won 4 of 99 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does B Lefevre do best at?
Compiegne (FR) by strike rate: 3 wins from 47 runners (6.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is B Lefevre in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is B Lefevre's Fair A/E?
0.75, from 97 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
B Lefevre·SR 4%·A/E 0.75
KTB
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