Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 16.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
15.4%−1.5
n=26 · A/E 2.36 · £1 +8.30
New recruits · first run for the yard
25%+8.1
n=4 · A/E 2.20 · £1 −0.40
Debutants · first career start
31.8%+14.9
n=22 · A/E 3.72 · £1 +37.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
16.7%−0.2
n=6 · A/E 3.31 · £1 +19.90
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−16.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
100%
n=2 · A/E 4.21 · £1 +5.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
14.3%−2.6
n=7 · A/E 4.06 · £1 +20.90
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
5.6%−11.3
n=18 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −13.30
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 16.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking22.6% vs 16.9% · n=53
Over 1m – 1m1f22.6% vs 16.9% · n=31
In Flat races17.1% vs 16.9% · n=70 · A/E 2.18
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat701217.1%+30.40
Hurdle100%—
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good24520.8%+14.30
Standard (AW)18316.7%+5.50
Good to Soft14214.3%+16.90
Soft1119.1%−8.00
Heavy4125%+1.70
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)17211.8%−7.90
Longchamp (FR)15320%+8.80
Chantilly (FR)13215.4%+8.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)11218.2%+19.60
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)9333.3%+4.90
Lyon Parilly100%—
Wissembourg (FR)100%—
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)100%−1.00
Le Croise-Laroche100%—
Hamburg (GER)100%−1.00
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11815.6%−13.30
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite22100%4.21+5.20
2nd–3rd fav11436.4%2.55+15.10
4th–6th fav1317.7%1.02+3.40
7th+ in betting3326.1%1.83+6.70
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f31722.6%+36.40
6f – 7f2229.1%−0.60
1m2f – 1m4f9222.2%+1.60
1m5f – 2m7114.3%−6.00
2m1f – 2m4f100%—
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20088337.5%+2.70
20093133.3%—
20108337.5%+11.90
201121419%+29.40
2012500%−5.00
2013100%−1.00
2014600%−6.00
2015300%−3.00
2016500%−5.00
20174125%+12.40
2018200%−2.00
2022400%−3.00
2026100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps12216.7%+12.10
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners16425%+35.80
8-10 runners1516.7%+2.40
11-13 runners1417.1%−10.40
5-7 runners1119.1%−3.30
2-4 runners8337.5%—
17+ runners7228.6%+5.90
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 27 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 23 had their first archived run for this yard.
14 have since run for another yard, most often for A Kleinkorres (2); 13 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0025943110253313025
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Konig Turf (GER) — Prix Edmond Blanc Saint-Cloud (FR) · Mar 2008 · Group 3
£29,412
Glad Eagle (GER) — Prix De L'Ile De La Cite (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · May 2011
£20,259
Glad Eagle (GER) — Prix Des Boucles De La Seine (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Sep 2010
Progeny have won 9.1% of 1,088 runs since 2008 (134 horses).
Areion (GER)0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 10.6% of 1,319 runs since 2008 (177 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.6% from 144.
Fantastic Light (USA)50% · 3–6
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,570 runs since 2008 (223 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5.8% from 377.
Monsieur Bond (IRE)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,982 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.
Vettori (IRE)25% · 1–4
Progeny have won 7.2% of 1,775 runs since 2008 (163 horses).
Desert Prince (IRE)33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,734 runs since 2008 (178 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.6% from 425.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 76 · newest first
The latest 50 of 76 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 20 June 2006 to 5 July 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Christian Sprengel's strike rate?
Christian Sprengel has won 12 of 71 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 16.9% (as at 15 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Christian Sprengel's Fair A/E?
2.18, from 59 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Christian Sprengel·SR 16.9%·A/E 2.18
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy