Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Small sample — fewer than 30 runs in this window. Read the Ns before the percentages.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 13.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
13.3%−0.3
n=15 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −11.05
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−13.6
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−13.6
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−13.6
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
66.7%
n=3 · A/E 1.51 · £1 +0.82
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.7%−5.9
n=13 · A/E 0.34 · £1 −11.43
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 50.8% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good800%−8.00
Good to Soft5240%−1.05
Soft400%−4.00
Heavy300%−3.00
Good to Firm2150%+0.25
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wincanton11327.3%−4.80
Fontwell400%−4.00
Kempton400%−4.00
Stratford200%−2.00
Exeter100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 614214.3%−9.37
Class 58112.5%−6.43
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite6350%1.27+0.20
2nd–3rd fav800%0.00−8.00
4th–6th fav700%0.00−7.00
7th+ in betting100%0.00−1.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f800%−8.00
2m5f – 3m7342.9%−0.80
Over 3m700%−7.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20113133.3%−0.75
20123133.3%−0.62
201311100%+0.57
2014100%−1.00
2015100%−1.00
2017300%−3.00
2018400%−4.00
2021300%−3.00
2022100%−1.00
2025200%−2.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners10220%−6.05
8-10 runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners300%−3.00
11-13 runners2150%+0.25
14-16 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 10 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 10 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from R H & Mrs S Alner (2); 2 had their first archived run for this yard.
2 have since run for another yard, most often for Robert Walford (2); 8 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Trade Off (IRE) — R K Harrison Hunters' Chase Wincanton · May 2006 · Class 4
£3,435
Master Medic (IRE) — Dorothy Hallam Memorial Wessex Area Lady Riders' Series Final Hunters' Chase Wincanton · May 2013 · Class 5
£2,184
Jayne's Crusader (GB) — Dick And Sue Woodhouse Memorial Hunters' Chase (For The Dick Woodhouse Trophy) Wincanton · Mar 2011 · Class 6
Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,554 runs since 2008 (162 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14% from 351. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.5% from 451.
Lord Americo (IRE)50% · 2–4
Progeny have won 7.8% of 2,189 runs since 2008 (237 horses).
Dr Massini (IRE)33.3% · 1–3
Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.
Fair Mix (IRE)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 7.3% of 2,578 runs since 2008 (251 horses).
Network (GER)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 14.1% of 3,769 runs since 2008 (380 horses). Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 10.2% from 275.
Saddler Maker (IRE)0% · 0–2
Progeny have won 16.8% of 2,174 runs since 2010 (181 horses). Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 11.3% from 222.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 43 archived runs · newest first
Every one of Mrs S Alner's 43 archived runners, from 10 February 2005 to 10 March 2025, newest first — 4 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Mrs S Alner's strike rate?
Mrs S Alner has won 3 of 22 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13.6% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive. A small sample — fewer than 30 runners, so read the count before the percentage.
Mrs S Alner·SR 13.6%·A/E 0.69
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