What is Tom O'Brien's strike rate?

Tom O'Brien has won 54 of 446 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.1% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which yard does Tom O'Brien ride most for?

Philip Hobbs, with 236 rides since 2022 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 27 (11.4%).

What is Tom O'Brien's Fair A/E?

0.91, from 445 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Tom O'Brien

446 rides in the last 5 seasons · 211 individual horses

As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Apr 2023 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

54–446

Wins / Runs

12.1%

Strike rate

n=446

140 (31%)

Placed

0.91

Fair A/E

n=445 · 0.79 incl. margin

−158.69

£1 level stake

n=446 at SP · −35.6%

£1.06m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.1%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 90 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.91). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 25% (60 rides). Rides mostly for Philip Hobbs — 53% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 446 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 29 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Apr 31.9% when favourite Philip Hobbs: 11.4% from 236 LTO winners: 25% Rides the favourite in 15% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 25% (n=60, Fair A/E 1.23), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.5% (n=66, Fair A/E 0.80). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 7.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.70 and −65.93 to a £1 stake over 109 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Philip Hobbs supplies 53% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (11.4%, A/E 0.80). The rider also reads well in Class 2 (25%, n=36). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 5.5% over 55 rides, 6.6pts below the baseline. 38 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase at Chepstow (Dec 2018, £85,425). The standout partner of the record: Pure Faith (IRE) — 8 wins from 28 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.1% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

7.3%−4.8

n=109 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −70.71

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

25%+12.9

n=60 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −3.94

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

7.3%−4.8

n=109 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −65.93

When favourite

31.9%

n=69 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −16.09

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.5%−7.6

n=66 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −30.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

12.9%+0.8

n=31 · A/E 1.14 · £1 +33.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 25% vs 12.1% · n=60

In Class 2 25% vs 12.1% · n=36

With Paul Henderson 0% vs 12.1% · n=34

With Henry Daly 21.8% vs 12.1% · n=55

Off a break of 180+ days 5.5% vs 12.1% · n=55

On first rides for the horse 7.3% vs 12.1% · n=109

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 248 30 12.1% −86.35

Chase 164 20 12.2% −54.67

NH Flat 33 4 12.1% −16.67

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 179 24 13.4% −41.43

Good to Soft 124 13 10.5% −54.97

Soft 115 14 12.2% −43.67

Heavy 24 2 8.3% −18.12

Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Standard (AW) 2 1 50% +1.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wincanton 29 6 20.7% +0.63

Uttoxeter 28 2 7.1% −22.09

Taunton 28 4 14.3% −14.67

Ludlow 26 5 19.2% +11.85

Chepstow 24 0 0% −24.00

Warwick 24 3 12.5% −10.38

Exeter 24 4 16.7% −14.83

Newbury 23 4 17.4% +19.83

Kempton 21 2 9.5% −12.67

Hereford 18 3 16.7% −4.00

Lingfield 17 1 5.9% −14.12

Worcester 17 0 0% −17.00

Newton Abbot 16 2 12.5% −10.33

Sandown 15 2 13.3% −7.62

Fontwell 14 1 7.1% −10.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 166 18 10.8% −97.97

Class 5 117 13 11.1% −50.55

Class 3 92 10 10.9% −50.00

Class 2 36 9 25% +10.33

Class 1 35 4 11.4% +29.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 75 24 32% 0.98 −14.26

2nd–3rd fav 114 16 14% 0.80 −46.43

4th–6th fav 139 11 7.9% 1.01 −42.00

7th+ in betting 118 3 2.5% 0.74 −56.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

82.5% completed · 412 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 164 74.4% 7 1 33 0 1

Hurdle 248 87.9% 4 2 24 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Musical Slave (IRE) 7 3 5 12 Feb 23

Zanza (IRE) 7 2 3 11 Feb 23

Thyme Hill (GB) 6 2 3 29 Apr 23

Bretney (IRE) 6 1 3 10 Feb 23

Advantura (IRE) 6 0 2 31 Jan 23

Another Crick (GB) 6 1 2 23 Jan 23

Kalooki (GER) 6 0 0 31 Dec 22

Coolnaugh Haze (IRE) 6 1 4 1 Dec 22

Larkbarrow Lad (GB) 6 0 3 29 Sep 22

Leapaway (IRE) 6 1 2 20 Sep 22

Keep Wondering (IRE) 5 0 1 16 Feb 23

Monviel (IRE) 5 3 3 11 Feb 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 211 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1120171413800133910

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardPhilip Hobbs

53% of all rides
11.4% SR · A/E 0.80

TrainerRWSR£1

Philip Hobbs 236 27 11.4% −106.73

Henry Daly 55 12 21.8% +20.40

Paul Henderson 34 0 0% −34.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,078

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£11.9m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 86 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Elegant Escape (IRE) — Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Chepstow · Dec 2018 · Grade 3

£85,425

Chance du Roy (FR) — Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Aintree · Dec 2013 · Grade 3

£84,405

Thyme Hill (GB) — Ryanair Stayers Hurdle (Registered As The Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Aintree · Apr 2021 · Grade 1

£84,195

Notable horses

Pure Faith (IRE) No Panic (IRE) Always Waining (IRE) Mumbles Head (IRE) Chance du Roy (FR) Tudors Treasure (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Getaway (GER) 18.8% · 6–32

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,934 runs since 2008 (1,028 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.3% from 133.

Kayf Tara (GB) 8.7% · 2–23

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,744 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Shirocco (GER) 23.8% · 5–21

Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,174 runs since 2008 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Arcadio (GER) 15% · 3–20

Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,977 runs since 2008 (375 horses).

Mahler (GB) 11.1% · 2–18

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,853 runs since 2008 (785 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Martaline (GB) 5.6% · 1–18

Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,345 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 8,126 · newest first

The latest 50 of 8,126 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 29 April 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

29 Apr 23 Sandown Thyme Hill (GB)T: Philip Hobbs & Johnson White Bet365 Select Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 21.5f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 9/4

28 Apr 23 Perth Industrialist (IRE)T: Henry Daly Download The BetVictor App Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 14/1

28 Apr 23 Perth Bridge North (IRE)T: Henry Daly Edith Bowman At Perth Ladies Day Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 24f · Soft · 5 ran F 4/1

27 Apr 23 Warwick Butler's Brief (IRE)T: Alastair Ralph Watch Irish Racing On RacingTV Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 25f · Good · 10 ran 8th 18/1

27 Apr 23 Warwick Doyen Queen (IRE)T: Paul Henderson Coop And Alis 40th Birthday Celebration Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 19f · Good · 9 ran 4th 18/1

22 Feb 23 Ludlow Emotional Memories (IRE)T: D J Jeffreys Suzuki ATV Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 5 ran F 66/1

21 Feb 23 Taunton Eye Knee (GB)T: Syd Hosie Royal Bath & West Of England Society Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 14 ran PU 66/1

21 Feb 23 Taunton Across The Line (IRE)T: Syd Hosie Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 23f · Good · 8 ran 4th 28/1

20 Feb 23 Lingfield Briery Express (GB)T: Noel Williams Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Mares' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 6th 3/1

18 Feb 23 Ascot Spring Gale (GB)T: Henry Daly British European Breeders' Fund EBF Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 8th 28/1

18 Feb 23 Ascot Thomas Mor (IRE)T: David Pipe Age Concern Bracknell Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 23.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 10/3J

18 Feb 23 Ascot Sporting John (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs LK Bennett Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 11th 12/1

16 Feb 23 Sandown Keep Wondering (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs Alanbrooke Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 14/1

15 Feb 23 Hereford Emma Hamilton (IRE)T: Henry Daly Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 4th 3/1

15 Feb 23 Hereford Maid Of The Night (IRE)T: Henry Daly Cazoo Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 5/4F

13 Feb 23 Plumpton Tzunami (GB)T: Paul Henderson Strong Flavours Catering Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 8th 125/1

12 Feb 23 Exeter Musical Slave (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs Virgin Bet Daily Price Boosts Veterans' Handicap ChaseClass 2 · 24f · Good · 6 ran 1st 2/1F

11 Feb 23 Newbury Monviel (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good · 16 ran 5th 12/1

11 Feb 23 Newbury Zanza (IRE)T: Philip Hobbs Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 23.5f · Good · 7 ran 1st 16/1

11 Feb 23 Newbury Jatiluwih (FR)T: Philip Hobbs Betfair Multiples Offer Every Saturday Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 4th 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tom O'Brien's strike rate?: Tom O'Brien has won 54 of 446 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 12.1% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which yard does Tom O'Brien ride most for?: Philip Hobbs, with 236 rides since 2022 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 27 (11.4%).
What is Tom O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 0.91, from 445 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.