Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5%+0.7
n=20 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −9.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.3
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −0.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−4.3
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.3
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft1417.1%−10.75
Soft1300%−13.00
Heavy1218.3%−1.50
Good500%−5.00
Standard (AW)300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Saint-Cloud (FR)1317.7%−2.50
Longchamp (FR)800%−8.00
Lyon Parilly (FR)700%−7.00
Marseille Borely (FR)6116.7%−2.75
Marseille Pont-de-Vivaux (FR)300%−3.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)300%−3.00
Vichy (FR)300%−3.00
Moulins (FR)200%−2.00
Chantilly (FR)100%−1.00
Fontainebleau (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 45120%−1.75
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 1200%−2.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5120%1.00−1.75
2nd–3rd fav500%0.00−5.00
4th–6th fav1317.7%1.12−2.50
7th+ in betting2400%0.00−24.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f1915.3%−15.75
1m – 1m1f1417.1%−3.50
1m2f – 1m4f1200%−12.00
1m5f – 2m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2015100%−1.00
2016100%−1.00
2017200%−2.00
2019400%−4.00
2020400%−4.00
2022100%−1.00
2023400%−4.00
20246116.7%+4.50
2025400%−4.00
20262015%−16.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2613.8%−15.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners1715.9%−6.50
11-13 runners1100%−11.00
8-10 runners10110%−6.75
17+ runners700%−7.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 13 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 13 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 9 had their first archived run for this yard.
None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0·0000001490·
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10.6% of 263 runs since 2019 (26 horses).
Deportivo (GB)0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,284 runs since 2008 (125 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.9% from 135. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.7% from 407. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.8% from 101. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.8% from 226.
Progeny have won 9.4% of 886 runs since 2019 (133 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.4% from 157.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
all 47 archived runs · newest first
Every one of P Sigaud's 47 archived runners, from 7 March 2015 to 5 November 2026, newest first — 2 winners among them.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is P Sigaud's strike rate?
P Sigaud has won 2 of 47 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.3% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is P Sigaud in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is P Sigaud's Fair A/E?
0.62, from 46 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
P Sigaud·SR 4.3%·A/E 0.62
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