Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5%−3.2
n=20 · A/E 2.74 · £1 −13.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
16.7%+8.5
n=6 · A/E 4.91 · £1 +0.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.8%−1.4
n=44 · A/E 1.79 · £1 −29.92
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle2600%−26.00
Chase18422.2%+8.08
NH Flat500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good30310%−10.42
Good to Firm700%−7.00
Good to Soft7114.3%−0.50
Soft400%−4.00
Heavy100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Bangor-on-Dee1300%−13.00
Uttoxeter1000%−10.00
Cartmel600%−6.00
Ludlow5240%+2.58
Worcester400%−4.00
Stratford2150%+10.00
Warwick2150%+4.50
Newton Abbot100%−1.00
Perth100%−1.00
Wetherby100%−1.00
Cheltenham100%−1.00
Haydock100%−1.00
Aintree100%−1.00
Market Rasen100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 41900%−19.00
Class 518316.7%−3.92
Class 6900%−9.00
Class 22150%+10.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav5360%3.77+9.08
4th–6th fav10110%2.44+2.00
7th+ in betting3300%0.00−33.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m2000%−20.00
2m1f – 2m4f1218.3%−7.67
2m5f – 3m10110%−6.75
Over 3m7228.6%+11.50
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008400%−4.00
2009900%−9.00
20101100%−11.00
2011400%−4.00
2012300%−3.00
2013100%−1.00
2014100%−1.00
2015200%−2.00
2016100%−1.00
201822100%+16.50
2019400%−4.00
20215240%+2.58
2022100%−1.00
2025100%−1.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps500%−5.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2214.5%−17.67
11-13 runners1200%−12.00
5-7 runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners5240%+4.75
14-16 runners4125%+8.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 10 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 10 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Lisa Williamson (2); 4 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 9 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
·0251411170000··
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Garde Ville (FR) — Pointtopoint.co.uk Champion Novices' Hunters' Chase Stratford · Jun 2018 · Class 2
£12,039
Garde Ville (FR) — Ludlow Race Club Open Hunters' Chase (For The Ludlow Gold Cup) Ludlow · Mar 2021 · Class 5
£3,249
Garde Ville (FR) — Overbury Stud National Hunt Stallions Crudwell Cup Open Hunters' Chase Warwick · May 2018 · Class 5
Progeny have won 0% of 12 runs since 2008 (2 horses). A small sample.
Kapgarde (FR)36.4% · 4–11
Progeny have won 12.4% of 6,644 runs since 2008 (727 horses).
Sir Harry Lewis (USA)0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,425 runs since 2008 (190 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 306.
Soviet Star (USA)0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,621 runs since 2008 (171 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5% from 160. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 320.
Beat All (USA)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 7% of 2,513 runs since 2008 (254 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.6% from 320. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.6% from 192. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 12.5% from 120.
Zaffaran (USA)0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 8.6% of 1,087 runs since 2008 (140 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.4% from 209. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4% from 174. Weakest beyond 3m (all codes): 5.2% from 155.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 68 · newest first
The latest 50 of 68 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 April 2006 to 20 March 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Patricia Rigby's strike rate?
Patricia Rigby has won 4 of 49 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.2% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Patricia Rigby's Fair A/E?
2.23, from 49 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Patricia Rigby·SR 8.2%·A/E 2.23
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