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Trainer profile

Muredach Kelly

108 runners in the last 5 seasons · 27 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Dec 2024
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2022
3–108
Wins / Runs
2.8%
Strike rate
n=108
10 (9%)
Placed
0.86
Fair A/E
n=108 · 0.67 incl. margin
−76.00
£1 level stake
n=108 at SP · −70.4%
£35,148
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
7.1%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.86). With a claiming rider up the record reads 5% (59 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 108 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 5.1%
The read

The market has consistently overbet the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 0.70 across 83 runners (2.4% strike, −66.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the www.bettor.com Flying Five Stakes at Curragh (Aug 2012, £39,000).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.8
n=31 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −31.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.8
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Debutants · first career start
8.3%+5.5
n=12 · A/E 3.27 · £1 +3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7.7%+4.9
n=13 · A/E 4.39 · £1 +2.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.1%+2.3
n=59 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −27.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
At Dundalk (AW) 0% vs 2.8% · n=34
On Standard (AW) going 0% vs 2.8% · n=34
Over 6f – 7f 0% vs 2.8% · n=31
With claiming riders up 5.1% vs 2.8% · n=59
In Flat races 2.4% vs 2.8% · n=83 · A/E 0.70
With a new jockey booking 3.2% vs 2.8% · n=62 · A/E 1.41
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 83 2 2.4% −66.00
Hurdle 15 0 0% −15.00
NH Flat 10 1 10% +5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 34 0 0% −34.00
Good 26 1 3.8% −11.00
Soft 21 2 9.5% −4.00
Heavy 14 0 0% −14.00
Good to Soft 12 0 0% −12.00
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 34 0 0% −34.00
Curragh 12 1 8.3% −4.00
Navan 8 0 0% −8.00
Gowran Park 7 0 0% −7.00
Galway 7 0 0% −7.00
Bellewstown 6 1 16.7% +3.00
Roscommon 5 0 0% −5.00
Leopardstown 4 0 0% −4.00
Ballinrobe 4 0 0% −4.00
Fairyhouse 3 0 0% −3.00
Naas 3 0 0% −3.00
Clonmel 2 0 0% −2.00
Down Royal 2 0 0% −2.00
Killarney 2 0 0% −2.00
Limerick 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 2 0 0% 0.00 −2.00
2nd–3rd fav 4 0 0% 0.00 −4.00
4th–6th fav 15 3 20% 2.93 +17.00
7th+ in betting 87 0 0% 0.00 −87.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Art Of Unity (GB)from Alan Richardson · then Maurice Andrew Ahern 17 2 7 23 Oct 24
Laurens Company (IRE) 16 0 1 22 Oct 24
Chancey Approach (IRE) 8 0 0 26 Jan 24
Outa Karney (IRE)from R K Watson 7 0 0 5 Sep 22
Capla Knight (IRE)from Patrick J McKenna · then Phil McEntee 6 0 1 11 Apr 23
Keep 'em Lit (IRE)from B R Hamilton 5 0 0 2 May 23
Nurse Garvey (IRE)then D M Christie 5 0 0 22 Apr 23
Dar Og (IRE) 4 0 0 3 Sep 24
Our Lil (GB)from John Quinn · then J P Murtagh 4 0 0 3 Jun 24
Angel Palanas (GB)from Sean Byrne 4 0 0 1 May 23
Kippers Company (IRE) 4 0 0 20 Mar 23
Rochester Mike (IRE)from Mrs John Harrington · then Maurice Andrew Ahern 3 0 0 5 Jul 24
All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 27 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive; 14 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Phil McEntee (3) and Maurice Andrew Ahern (2); 17 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00110000001500
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Seamie Heffernan 11 0 0% −11.00
Mark Enright 9 0 0% −9.00
Julian Pietropaolo 8 2 25% +9.00
J M Sheridan 6 0 0% −6.00
Mr T R Costello 5 0 0% −5.00
Rory Cleary 5 0 0% −5.00
Rory Mulligan 5 0 0% −5.00
Jamie Powell 5 0 0% −5.00
Darragh O'Keeffe 5 0 0% −5.00
Robert Whearty 4 0 0% −4.00
Adam Caffrey 4 0 0% −4.00
Cian MacRedmond 3 0 0% −3.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→
18
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£279k
Prize money
2013
Best season · 3 wins
My Girl Anna (IRE) — www.bettor.com Flying Five Stakes (group 3) Curragh · Aug 2012 · Group 3
£39,000
Kahuna (IRE) — Www.galwaynews.ie Handicap Hurdle Galway · Oct 2008
£32,550
Kahuna (IRE) — Guinness Handicap Chase Galway · Jul 2009
£22,785
Notable horses
My Girl Anna (IRE) Kahuna (IRE) Art Of Unity (GB) Reposer (IRE) San Jose City (IRE) Champagne Blitz (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Fast Company (IRE) 0% · 0–20
Progeny have won 9.4% of 7,591 runs since 2008 (492 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.7% from 557. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.8% from 109.
Mazameer (IRE) 11.8% · 2–17
Progeny have won 7.8% of 472 runs since 2008 (43 horses).
Dawn Approach (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 8% of 3,570 runs since 2008 (358 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.6% from 333. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 125. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5% from 179.
Altruistic (IRE) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 5.7% of 122 runs since 2008 (14 horses).
Sir Prancealot (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,686 runs since 2008 (216 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.6% from 627. Weakest on Heavy going: 5.3% from 171.
Court Cave (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,929 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 934.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 520 · newest first

The latest 50 of 520 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 June 2008 to 13 December 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
13 Dec 24 Dundalk (AW) Sliabh Na Gcroi (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 200/1
22 Nov 24 Dundalk (AW) Sliabh Na Gcroi (IRE)J: Luke McAteer Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden (Div 1)8f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 200/1
23 Oct 24 Navan Art Of Unity (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Safer Gambling Handicap (47-70)6f · Yielding · 19 ran 10th 9/2J
22 Oct 24 Curragh Laurens Company (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Handicap (47-70) (Div 1)10f · Yielding · 20 ran 15th 16/1
21 Oct 24 Gowran Park Wheres The Gold (IRE)J: Jamie Powell Irish EBF Median Sires Series Fillies Maiden8.5f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran 12th 150/1
17 Oct 24 Curragh Art Of Unity (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Equine Care Group - Nutritional Solutions Handicap (47-75)5f · Yielding To Soft · 17 ran 1st 7/1
09 Oct 24 Navan Art Of Unity (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Book Your Discounted Tickets On NavanRacecourse.ie Apprentice Handicap (47-65)6f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 4th 12/1
05 Oct 24 Curragh Laurens Company (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Handicap (47-65)8f · Good · 25 ran 20th 40/1
03 Oct 24 Bellewstown Art Of Unity (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Dickie McGuinness Handicap (47-65)5f · Yielding · 12 ran 1st 8/1
10 Sep 24 Galway Laurens Company (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Galway Apprentice Handicap (47-70)12f · Yielding · 15 ran 8th 28/1
03 Sep 24 Gowran Park Dar Og (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Membership At Gowran Park Fillies Claiming Race8f · Good · 10 ran 10th 150/1
25 Aug 24 Naas Art Of Unity (GB)J: Ronan Whelan Persian Force At Tally-Ho Handicap (47-65)5f · Good To Yielding · 22 ran 14th 22/1
20 Aug 24 Roscommon Laurens Company (IRE)J: Jack Cleary QuinnBet Claiming Race10.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 3rd 150/1
30 Jul 24 Galway Wheres The Gold (IRE)J: Leigh Roche COLM QUINN BMW Irish EBF Fillies Maiden7f · Yielding · 13 ran 13th 150/1
05 Jul 24 Bellewstown Art Of Unity (GB)J: Shane Foley Western Motors CUPRA Handicap (47-65)5f · Good · 13 ran 5th 11/1
05 Jul 24 Bellewstown Rochester Mike (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Meath Farm Machinery Claiming Race8f · Good · 14 ran 12th 33/1
03 Jun 24 Gowran Park Our Lil (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan Sonix Entertainment Handicap (47-65)9.5f · Good · 17 ran 7th 7/1
17 May 24 Leopardstown Our Lil (GB)J: Nathan Crosse GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap (50-70) (Div 2)8f · Good · 16 ran 6th 80/1
08 May 24 Gowran Park Romford (IRE)J: Mr T R Costello Thank You To All Our Sponsors Apprentice Handicap (47-65)8f · Heavy · 12 ran 12th 40/1
06 May 24 Curragh Rochester Mike (IRE)J: Mr T R Costello Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Apprentice Handicap7f · Soft · 20 ran 11th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Muredach Kelly's strike rate?
Muredach Kelly has won 3 of 108 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.8% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Muredach Kelly do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 0 wins from 34 runners (0%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Muredach Kelly's Fair A/E?
0.86, from 108 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).