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Trainer profile

Rayson Nixon

265 runners in the lifetime window · 20 individual horses
As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Apr 2014 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
15–265
Wins / Runs
5.7%
Strike rate
n=265
38 (14%)
Placed
1.03
Fair A/E
n=265 · 0.90 incl. margin
+63.38
£1 level stake
n=265 at SP · +23.9%
£97,593
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 40 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03).

Deterministic profile computed from 265 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Ryan Mania: 4.2% from 96 Claiming riders: 6.8%
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 6.8% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.41 and +23.50 to a £1 stake over 146 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Ryan Mania rode 36% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.2%, A/E 0.94). The yard also read well on Heavy going (19.2%, n=52) and off a 31-60-day break (9.3%, n=43). The record read poorly on Good going — 1.3% over 78 runners, 4.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 8-14-day break: Fair A/E 0.25 across 55 runners (1.8% strike, −51.75 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. The stable star of the record was Kempski (GB) — 7 wins from 60 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.8%−1.9
n=53 · A/E 1.17 · £1 +88.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.7
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.7
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.5%+3.8
n=21 · A/E 1.83 · £1 +3.50
When favourite
37.5%
n=8 · A/E 1.26 · £1 +0.38
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.8%+1.1
n=146 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +23.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Heavy going 19.2% vs 5.7% · n=52
With C&D winners 14% vs 5.7% · n=43
On Good going 1.3% vs 5.7% · n=78
Off a 8-14-day break 1.8% vs 5.7% · n=55
Off a 31-60-day break 9.3% vs 5.7% · n=43
At Kelso 2.8% vs 5.7% · n=72
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 159 11 6.9% +145.25
Chase 86 4 4.7% −61.87
NH Flat 20 0 0% −20.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 78 1 1.3% −63.00
Soft 61 2 3.3% −17.25
Heavy 52 10 19.2% +183.63
Good to Soft 48 2 4.2% −14.00
Good to Firm 26 0 0% −26.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Kelso 72 2 2.8% −54.25
Hexham 53 4 7.5% +131.38
Carlisle 33 2 6.1% −26.25
Sedgefield 20 1 5% +21.00
Newcastle 19 1 5.3% −9.00
Musselburgh 18 0 0% −18.00
Ayr 17 4 23.5% +32.50
Perth 14 0 0% −14.00
Catterick 12 1 8.3% +7.00
Cartmel 3 0 0% −3.00
Wetherby 2 0 0% −2.00
Haydock 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 132 6 4.5% +96.13
Class 5 61 4 6.6% −20.25
Class 3 46 4 8.7% +3.50
Class 6 17 0 0% −17.00
Class 2 8 1 12.5% +2.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 9 3 33.3% 1.18 −0.62
2nd–3rd fav 27 4 14.8% 1.16 +0.00
4th–6th fav 78 1 1.3% 0.21 −37.00
7th+ in betting 151 7 4.6% 1.87 +101.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
73.1% completed · 245 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 86 61.6% 6 8 18 0 1
Hurdle 159 79.2% 2 2 28 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Political Paddy (GB) 49 3 10 11 May 13
Norminster (GB) 43 3 9 15 Mar 12
Just Maddie (GB) 32 1 3 4 Jun 13
Kempski (GB) 29 5 6 2 Jan 12
Just Posh (GB) 22 1 3 18 May 11
Spivitus (GB) 16 0 1 9 May 09
Gymdoli (GB) 14 1 3 29 Apr 13
Political Pendant (GB) 12 0 1 21 Feb 11
Tempo Sound (GB) 8 0 0 17 Feb 10
Hush Tiger (GB) 8 1 2 24 Nov 08
Just Stripe (GB) 6 0 0 7 Nov 13
Wind Echo (GB) 5 0 0 22 Mar 14
All 20 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 20 horses listed, 1 arrived from another yard in our archive; 19 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 19 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
469200000789
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderRyan Mania
36% of all rides
4.2% SR · A/E 0.94
RiderRWSR£1
Ryan Mania 96 4 4.2% −33.75
Fearghal Davis 36 2 5.6% +8.25
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
24
Archived wins
£159k
Prize money
2008
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Political Paddy (GB) — Totequadpot Novices' Hurdle Newcastle · Feb 2009 · Class 2
£10,112
Political Paddy (GB) — John N. Dunn Group Ltd Handicap Hurdle Kelso · Apr 2009 · Class 3
£7,514
Kempski (GB) — Hogmanay Ball At Ayr Racecourse Handicap Hurdle Ayr · Dec 2006 · Class 3
£6,338
Notable horses
Kempski (GB) Norminster (GB) Political Paddy (GB) Political Cruise (GB) Hush Tiger (GB) Just Maddie (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Vitus (GB) 4.6% · 3–65
Progeny have won 7.4% of 122 runs since 2008 (8 horses).
Supreme Sound (GB) 2% · 1–51
Progeny have won 7.4% of 434 runs since 2008 (32 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 4.3% from 139.
Minster Son (IRE) 7% · 3–43
Progeny have won 7.7% of 662 runs since 2008 (57 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.7% from 102.
Moshaajir (USA) 4.8% · 2–42
Progeny have won 3.3% of 60 runs since 2008 (7 horses).
Petoski (GB) 17.2% · 5–29
Progeny have won 5.5% of 200 runs since 2008 (30 horses).
Endoli (USA) 6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 8.5% of 223 runs since 2008 (19 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 467 · newest first

The latest 50 of 467 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 January 2005 to 19 April 2014.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Apr 14 Carlisle Just Bee (IRE)J: Dale Irving Follow totepool On Twitter Mares' Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 17f · Good · 11 ran 11th 50/1
14 Apr 14 Hexham Meet Henry (GB)J: Dale Irving Vallum Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 100/1
22 Mar 14 Kelso Meet Henry (GB)J: John Kington Kelso Races A Great Day Out Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16f · Good · 14 ran 9th 100/1
22 Mar 14 Kelso Wind Echo (GB)J: John Kington D.G. Pryde Ltd Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 18f · Good · 13 ran PU 250/1
08 Dec 13 Kelso Wind Echo (GB)J: Daragh Bourke Border Facilities Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 14 ran PU 250/1
09 Nov 13 Kelso Wind Echo (GB)J: Daragh Bourke Jane Medd 'national Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 22.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran PU 250/1
07 Nov 13 Musselburgh Just Stripe (GB)J: James Reveley Don King And Neville Porter Bookmaker Mares' Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 15.5f · Good · 10 ran 7th 66/1
24 Oct 13 Carlisle Wind Echo (GB)J: Daragh Bourke Star Sports Don't Be Rushed Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 17f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 12th 250/1
12 Oct 13 Hexham Wind Echo (GB)J: Jonathan England intu Metrocentre Always A Safe Bet Intermediate NH Flat Race (Conditional Jockeys' And AmateursClass 6 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 12th 50/1
04 Jun 13 Hexham Just Maddie (GB)J: Gary Rutherford Book The Pavilion Restaurant Novices' ChaseClass 4 · 22.5f · Good · 11 ran PU 200/1
01 Jun 13 Hexham Just Maddie (GB)J: Gary Rutherford Great Run Org Selling HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 4th 80/1
11 May 13 Hexham Political Paddy (GB)J: Gary Rutherford Margaret Ferries Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 23.5f · Good · 12 ran 6th 12/1
08 May 13 Kelso Just Maddie (GB)J: Gary Rutherford NFU Mutual Alnwick Selling Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 14 ran PU 50/1
29 Apr 13 Kelso Gymdoli (GB)J: Gary Rutherford Peter & Gillian Allan Catering Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 22.5f · Good · 13 ran PU 33/1
24 Apr 13 Perth Political Paddy (GB)J: Mr T Hamilton Fonab Castle Hotel Amateur Riders' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 10th 25/1
07 Apr 13 Hexham Just Maddie (GB)J: Gary Rutherford Sis Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 28/1
07 Apr 13 Hexham Gymdoli (GB)J: Barry Keniry St John Lee Handicap Hurdle (Sunday 5k Bonus Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 9th 11/1
02 Mar 13 Kelso Political Paddy (GB)J: Ryan Mania Kingdom Taverns Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 22.5f · Soft · 12 ran 8th 16/1
02 Mar 13 Kelso Gymdoli (GB)J: Ryan Mania totepool.com Premier Kelso Hurdle (Grade 2 Novices' Hurdle)Class 1 · 18f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 150/1
21 Feb 13 Ayr Political Paddy (GB)J: Gary Rutherford Follow Us On Twitter At BetVictorRacing Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Soft · 6 ran 5th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Rayson Nixon's strike rate?
Rayson Nixon has won 15 of 265 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.7% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Rayson Nixon do best at?
Hexham by strike rate: 4 wins from 53 runners (7.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Rayson Nixon?
Ryan Mania, with 96 runners since 2008 — 36% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (4.2%).
What is Rayson Nixon's Fair A/E?
1.03, from 265 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 15 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).