Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Rider Profile
Rides around 40 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.79).
Deterministic profile computed from 213 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 28 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceAndrew Crook: 5.9% from 51
The read
Andrew Crook supplies 24% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (5.9%, A/E 1.31) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.41 across 55 rides (1.8% strike, −51.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
3.4%−1.3
n=59 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −26.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
22.2%+17.5
n=9 · A/E 1.71 · £1 +1.50
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
3.4%−1.3
n=58 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −25.00
When favourite
0%
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
0%−4.7
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With L J Morgan9.1% vs 4.7% · n=33
Over 1m5f – 2m1.8% vs 4.7% · n=55
Over 2m5f – 3m7.5% vs 4.7% · n=53
With horses switching code2.1% vs 4.7% · n=47
On Good to Soft going2.2% vs 4.7% · n=46
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle12054.2%−66.00
Chase8356%+7.00
NH Flat900%−9.00
Flat100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good8333.6%+0.50
Soft6146.6%−15.00
Good to Soft4612.2%−42.00
Heavy19210.5%−8.50
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Standard (AW)100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Sedgefield3425.9%+1.50
Southwell2713.7%−19.50
Newcastle2200%−22.00
Market Rasen2015%−16.50
Hexham1800%−18.00
Wetherby1815.6%−13.50
Uttoxeter1000%−10.00
Cartmel9111.1%+0.00
Catterick900%−9.00
Ayr700%−7.00
Carlisle600%−6.00
Doncaster6233.3%+65.00
Kelso400%−4.00
Stratford300%−3.00
Leicester3133.3%+1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 511565.2%−0.50
Class 48333.6%−62.50
Class 3900%−9.00
Class 25120%+4.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite700%0.00−7.00
2nd–3rd fav24416.7%1.02−8.00
4th–6th fav7556.7%1.03−14.00
7th+ in betting10710.9%0.45−40.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f9533.2%−77.50
1m5f – 2m5511.8%−51.00
2m5f – 3m5347.5%+31.50
Over 3m9222.2%+29.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20228744.6%+17.50
20237845.1%−55.00
20244824.2%−31.50
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps157106.4%−13.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners7245.6%−43.00
11-13 runners5823.4%+16.50
5-7 runners5235.8%−15.50
14-16 runners1700%−17.00
2-4 runners8112.5%−4.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 79 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
4613570000060
A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
91
Archived wins
£735k
Prize money
2011
Best season · 12 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Finzi (IRE) — totesport.com Southern National Handicap Chase Fontwell · Nov 2007 · Class 3
£15,658
J'ai Froid (IRE) — Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Warwick · Jan 2024 · Class 2
£15,609
Sheneededtherun (IRE) — Faller Refunds At 188bet Mares' Handicap Chase Warwick · Feb 2018 · Class 3
Progeny have won 16.8% of 2,009 runs since 2008 (167 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 20.1% from 497. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.7% from 339.
Court Cave (IRE)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,942 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.
Presenting (GB)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 11% of 20,050 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,880 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,880 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 January 2005 to 28 September 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is John Kington's strike rate?
John Kington has won 10 of 213 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Kington do best at?
Sedgefield by strike rate: 2 wins from 34 rides (5.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does John Kington ride most for?
Andrew Crook, with 51 rides since 2022 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (5.9%).
What is John Kington's Fair A/E?
0.79, from 212 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
John Kington·SR 4.7%·A/E 0.79
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