from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
11–268
Wins / Runs
4.1%
Strike rate
n=268
32 (12%)
Placed
0.88
Fair A/E
n=268 · 0.68 incl. margin
−96.42
£1 level stake
n=268 at SP · −36.0%
£205k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
11.1%
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.88). With a claiming rider up the record reads 6% (106 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 268 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 23 Aug 2026
KTB at a glanceRoss Coakley: 7.8% from 64Claiming riders: 5.7%
The read
Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 5.7% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.27 and +5.00 to a £1 stake over 106 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Ross Coakley rides 24% of the entries and edges the yard's average (7.8% vs 4.1%, A/E 1.83) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (7.5%, n=40). The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 0% over 75 runners, 4.1pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.4%−2.7
n=70 · A/E 0.31 · £1 −41.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.1
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
Debutants · first career start
4.7%+0.6
n=43 · A/E 1.72 · £1 −11.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.1
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.1
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.7%+1.6
n=106 · A/E 1.27 · £1 +5.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.1
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 6f – 7f0% vs 4.1% · n=75
On Good going0% vs 4.1% · n=48
With Ross Coakley7.8% vs 4.1% · n=64
Off a break of 180+ days0% vs 4.1% · n=33
On Good to Firm going7.5% vs 4.1% · n=40
Off a 8-14-day break6.5% vs 4.1% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat262114.2%−90.42
Hurdle400%−4.00
NH Flat200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)9155.5%−18.25
Soft4924.1%−18.67
Good4800%−48.00
Good to Firm4037.5%−0.50
Heavy2314.3%+6.00
Good to Soft1700%−17.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)8655.8%−13.25
Curragh3925.1%+8.00
Navan2514%−20.67
Gowran Park2000%−20.00
Naas1400%−14.00
Fairyhouse1300%−13.00
Roscommon1200%−12.00
Leopardstown1218.3%+1.00
Cork1218.3%+17.00
Tipperary900%−9.00
Limerick600%−6.00
Galway5120%+0.50
Lingfield (AW)300%−3.00
Down Royal200%−2.00
Ascot200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 12300%−23.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Class 3100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite600%0.00−6.00
2nd–3rd fav23417.4%1.39−1.42
4th–6th fav5711.8%0.27−48.00
7th+ in betting18263.3%1.32−41.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f10155%−28.25
6f – 7f7500%−75.00
1m – 1m1f5235.8%+8.00
1m5f – 2m2314.3%−17.50
Under 6f15213.3%+18.33
2m5f – 3m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20102150%+3.50
20112000%−20.00
201229310.3%+32.00
20134724.3%−35.25
20143712.7%−16.00
20152200%−22.00
20162900%−29.00
20172129.5%+18.00
20182800%−28.00
2020900%−9.00
20214125%+0.33
20221100%−11.00
20239111.1%+20.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps12764.7%−24.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners10854.6%−15.00
11-13 runners5935.1%−23.17
8-10 runners4224.8%−25.25
17+ runners4112.4%−15.00
5-7 runners1400%−14.00
2-4 runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
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0094009326615
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.