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Jockey profile

Robson Aguiar

124 rides in the lifetime window · 47 individual horses
As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last ride Dec 2019 100% of rides on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
2–124
Wins / Runs
1.6%
Strike rate
n=124
20 (16%)
Placed
0.38
Fair A/E
n=124 · 0.30 incl. margin
−69.00
£1 level stake
n=124 at SP · −55.6%
£54,824
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
14.3%
KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 10 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.38). Rode mostly for Adrian Murray — 46% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 124 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Adrian Murray: 1.8% from 57
The read

Adrian Murray supplied 46% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (1.8%, A/E 0.39). The market has consistently overbet the rider on Standard (AW) going: Fair A/E 0.79 across 56 rides (3.6% strike, −1.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 1.6% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
0%−1.6
n=47 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −47.00
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−1.6
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
0%−1.6
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Big fields · 14+ runners
1.6%+0.0
n=61 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −27.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−1.6
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 6f – 7f 4.2% vs 1.6% · n=48
At Dundalk (AW) 3.6% vs 1.6% · n=56
On Standard (AW) going 3.6% vs 1.6% · n=56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 56 2 3.6% −1.00
Soft 21 0 0% −21.00
Good 18 0 0% −18.00
Good to Firm 13 0 0% −13.00
Heavy 9 0 0% −9.00
Good to Soft 6 0 0% −6.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 56 2 3.6% −1.00
Navan 13 0 0% −13.00
Gowran Park 9 0 0% −9.00
Curragh 7 0 0% −7.00
Tipperary 5 0 0% −5.00
Naas 5 0 0% −5.00
Leopardstown 4 0 0% −4.00
Sligo 4 0 0% −4.00
Roscommon 4 0 0% −4.00
Fairyhouse 4 0 0% −4.00
Galway 3 0 0% −3.00
Cork 2 0 0% −2.00
Limerick 2 0 0% −2.00
Down Royal 2 0 0% −2.00
Listowel 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1 0 0% 0.00 −1.00
2nd–3rd fav 6 0 0% 0.00 −6.00
4th–6th fav 27 0 0% 0.00 −27.00
7th+ in betting 90 2 2.2% 0.87 −35.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Yodollah (IRE) 11 0 3 28 Nov 08
Ascot Dreamer (GB) 10 1 2 13 Dec 19
Shes Ranger (IRE) 6 1 2 7 May 17
Doux Douce (IRE) 6 0 2 3 Jul 14
Swift Harry (GB) 5 0 2 27 Nov 15
Azamesse (IRE) 5 0 3 10 Jul 15
Gimli's Treasure (IRE) 5 0 0 7 Sep 08
Zeb City (IRE) 4 0 1 6 Aug 18
Likewise (IRE) 4 0 0 3 Jun 17
Tetraites (IRE) 4 0 3 20 Jan 17
Pao De Acuca (IRE) 4 0 0 7 Oct 15
Tony's Rocket (IRE) 3 0 0 30 May 19
All 47 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0000000006011
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first
Main yardAdrian Murray
46% of all rides
1.8% SR · A/E 0.39
TrainerRWSR£1
Adrian Murray 57 1 1.8% −36.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→
2
Archived wins
£55,499
Prize money
2019
Best season · 1 win
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Shes Ranger (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Fillies Median Auction Maiden (Plus 10) Dundalk (AW) · Oct 2016
£9,225
Ascot Dreamer (GB) — Crowne Plaza Hotel Race & Stay Handicap (45-65) (Div 1) Dundalk (AW) · Dec 2019
£5,910
Notable horses
Ascot Dreamer (GB) Shes Ranger (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Fath (USA) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 8.9% of 2,349 runs since 2008 (98 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 14.3% from 112. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.2% from 167.
Bushranger (IRE) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,449 runs since 2008 (300 horses).
Kyllachy (GB) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.
Zebedee (GB) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 9% of 7,139 runs since 2008 (435 horses).
Galileo (IRE) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,195 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 889.
Azamour (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 13.1% of 4,328 runs since 2008 (351 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 8.8% from 215.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 134 · newest first

The latest 50 of 134 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 8 April 2007 to 13 December 2019.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
13 Dec 19 Dundalk (AW) Ascot Dreamer (GB)T: Mark L Fagan Crowne Plaza Race & Stay Handicap (45-65)6f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 10/1
03 Dec 19 Dundalk (AW) Ascot Dreamer (GB)T: Mark L Fagan Crowne Plaza Hotel Race & Stay Handicap (45-65) (Div 1)6f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 33/1
22 Nov 19 Dundalk (AW) Ascot Dreamer (GB)T: Mark L Fagan Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (45-65)5f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 25/1
06 Nov 19 Dundalk (AW) Ascot Dreamer (GB)T: Mark L Fagan Crowne Plaza Hotel Race & Stay Claiming Race6f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 25/1
25 Oct 19 Dundalk (AW) Billy's Angel (IRE)T: Adrian Murray Paddy Power Betting Shops Maiden10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 80/1
25 Oct 19 Dundalk (AW) Ascot Dreamer (GB)T: Mark L Fagan Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Fillies Claiming Race7f · Standard · 13 ran 6th 66/1
30 May 19 Fairyhouse Tony's Rocket (IRE)T: Adrian Murray Fairyhouse Welcomes Competitors Of The Tattersalls International Horse Trials Claiming Race10f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 6th 7/1
24 Oct 18 Navan Messerati Kid (IRE)T: Adrian Murray www.navanracecourse.ie Handicap (45-65)14f · Good · 22 ran 18th 33/1
04 Sep 18 Naas Ascot Dreamer (GB)T: Adrian Murray Welcome To Naas Racecourse Nursery Handicap5.5f · Good · 13 ran 8th 12/1
03 Sep 18 Roscommon Misty Dawn (IRE)T: Adrian Murray Irish EBF Supporting Irish Champions Weekend Fillies Maiden10f · Good · 14 ran 10th 66/1
30 Aug 18 Tipperary Sand Castle (IRE)T: Adrian Murray Irish Stallion Farms EBF Claiming Maiden (Plus 10)7.5f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 5th 14/1
17 Aug 18 Dundalk (AW) Ascot Dreamer (GB)T: Adrian Murray Foran Equine Irish EBF Auction Fillies Maiden (Plus 10)6f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 40/1
06 Aug 18 Curragh Zeb City (IRE)T: Adrian Murray Curragh 'Where Champions Are Made' Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 30 ran 29th 33/1
06 Aug 18 Curragh Ascot Dreamer (GB)T: Adrian Murray Ryans Cleaning Event Specialists Nursery Handicap (Plus 10)6.5f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 8th 16/1
06 Aug 18 Curragh Misty Dawn (IRE)T: Adrian Murray Curragh 'Where Champions Are Made' Fillies Maiden7f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 11th 33/1
06 Aug 18 Curragh Sand Castle (IRE)T: Adrian Murray Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden (Plus 10)7f · Good To Firm · 18 ran 8th 66/1
14 Jul 18 Navan Misty Dawn (IRE)T: Adrian Murray Lynn Lodge Stud Maiden5.5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 5th 25/1
14 Jul 18 Navan Blackstone Cliff (IRE)T: Adrian Murray Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden (Plus 10)5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 6th 40/1
11 Jun 18 Roscommon Zwack (GB)T: Adrian Murray Roscommon Claiming Maiden7f · Good · 14 ran 11th 33/1
11 Jun 18 Roscommon Sand Castle (IRE)T: Adrian Murray Foran Equine Irish EBF Auction Maiden7f · Good · 15 ran 7th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Robson Aguiar's strike rate?
Robson Aguiar has won 2 of 124 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 1.6% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Robson Aguiar do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 2 wins from 56 rides (3.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Robson Aguiar ride most for?
Adrian Murray, with 57 rides since 2008 — 46% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.8%).
What is Robson Aguiar's Fair A/E?
0.38, from 124 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 29 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).