6:45 Chepstow
A Class 6 handicap over 7f16y at Chepstow on good ground brings together a field of eight modest performers in what looks a steadily-run, tactical affair. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Port Louis on 59, with Connie's Rose just behind on 58, reflecting a race where course experience, recent consistency and the ability to produce a late effort from a handy position could prove decisive. No horse stands out as an obvious leader, so the shape is expected to favour those who can be ridden for a late run rather than those forced to make the running.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape indicating a lack of any obvious leader and medium confidence in that assessment, the race is likely to be run at a steady gallop with the field bunching early. Most of the runners, including all four principals, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, meaning the key question will be which horse can generate the strongest finishing kick once the pace quickens inside the final two furlongs. Being handy without over-racing in a tactical race on this track could pay dividends, particularly from the lower draws.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Port Louis KTB Selection59/100Modest performer who has been out of the money on his last three starts and looks vulnerable from a wide draw.
- 2Connie's Rose58/100Modest performer with a solid course record here, having won three times from 20 runs at Chepstow.
- 3Dappled Light54/100Modest performer who has won once from seven starts at Chepstow and arrives in solid form after two placed efforts.
- 4Mayberry Moon50/100Modest performer who has won once over today's trip from six attempts and showed fair form when fourth at Windsor on his latest start.
- 5Redredrobin49/100Redredrobin is a limited horse who has been around a long time and remains competitive at this level.
- 6Kaleidoscope Eyes46/100Limited horse who has shown the odd flash of ability but remains winless in 25 starts.
- 7Rosemary's Rose37/100Rosemary's Rose is a limited performer who has been consistent at this level lately with three consecutive placed efforts.
- 8Emery Down36/100Limited handicapper who has shown his best form at this trip, winning once and placing twice from five runs.
The contenders
Port Louis KTB Fit 59/100
Port Louis is a modest performer who has been out of the money on his last three starts and looks vulnerable from a wide draw in stall six. He drops back from 1m2f to a trip he has won over before though the recent form figures of 208038 suggest he is not in peak form. The five-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, and the trainer Bernard Llewellyn has a solid 9% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.9 from 779 runs. Jockey Donagh Murphy, claiming 7lb, has a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.33 from six rides, while the gelding has one win from nine runs on good ground with two placed efforts. He has no course form on record.
Connie's Rose KTB Fit 58/100
Connie's Rose is a modest performer with a solid course record here, having won three times from 20 runs at Chepstow. Her recent form of 724443 has been consistent without winning, including a string of placed efforts, though she steps up in trip today having last run over 6f and her placed efforts at 7f came without a victory. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces her effort late. Trainer Grace Harris has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.86 from 447 runs, but this is offset by jockey Ashley Lewis's strong 21% record from 28 rides here with an A/E of 1.38, while the mare has two wins from 14 on good ground with nine placed efforts.
Dappled Light KTB Fit 54/100
Dappled Light is a modest performer who has won once from seven starts at Chepstow and arrives in solid form after two placed efforts, with recent figures reading -71122. He drops back to 7f today having last run over a mile and holds a placed record at the shorter trip without having won over it. The six-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment. Trainer Adrian Wintle has a 10% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.87 from 212 runs, while jockey Finley Marsh has a 12% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.89 from 172 rides. The gelding has three wins from 13 on good ground with six placed efforts.
Mayberry Moon KTB Fit 50/100
Mayberry Moon is a modest performer who has won once over today's trip from six attempts and showed fair form when fourth at Windsor on his latest start, with form figures of 190-45. He has placed once from five runs on good ground but remains winless on that surface overall. The four-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late. Trainer Thomas Faulkner has a modest 4% strike-rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 0.46 from 50 runs, while jockey Edward Greatrex has an 11% record here with an A/E of 0.82 from 149 rides. He has no course form on record.
The rest of the field
RedredrobinKTB Fit 49/100
Redredrobin is a limited horse who has been around a long time and remains competitive at this level. He has a solid record here with three wins from ten runs at Chepstow and has also won on good ground and at today's trip, though his recent form reads -68928.
Kaleidoscope EyesKTB Fit 46/100
Kaleidoscope Eyes is a limited horse who has shown the odd flash of ability but remains winless in 25 starts. She has run respectably at this track without threatening to win and is 1-9 on good ground, with three wins from 13 starts at this distance.
Rosemary's RoseKTB Fit 37/100
Rosemary's Rose is a limited performer who has been consistent at this level lately with three consecutive placed efforts from her form of 562233. She has handled good ground and today's trip in the past though without winning, and the yard's solid 11% strike rate at Chepstow adds some encouragement despite the jockey's modest 4% record here.
Emery DownKTB Fit 36/100
Emery Down is a limited handicapper who has shown his best form at this trip, winning once and placing twice from five runs. He has been competitive on good ground but lacks a win on it and makes his first visit to Chepstow today, where the trainer is 0-6.
KTB verdict
Port Louis is the KTB Selection in a race where the principals are closely matched on ratings. He drops in class and returns to a trip he has won over before, with the trainer and jockey combination offering some encouragement at the track despite his recent modest form and wide draw. The selection will need to produce a strong late run in what is set to be a steadily-run affair. His main dangers are Connie's Rose, who boasts a strong course record and consistent recent form, and Dappled Light, who arrives in solid nick and has course-winning form, while Mayberry Moon is capable of a bold show from a good draw if he can translate his latest effort to this venue.
KTB Selection Port Louis
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 29 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Port Louis | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Connie's Rose | 17/2 | William Hill |
| Dappled Light | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Mayberry Moon | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Redredrobin | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Kaleidoscope Eyes | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Rosemary's Rose | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Emery Down | 4/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 6:45 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse steps up in trip from a recent 6f run?
Connie's Rose steps up in trip today having last run over 6f.
How many course wins does Connie's Rose have at Chepstow?
Connie's Rose has won three times from 20 runs at Chepstow.
Which horse is dropping back from 1m2f to a trip he has won over before?
Port Louis is dropping back from 1m2f to a trip he has won over before.
What is Redredrobin's course record at Chepstow?
Redredrobin has three wins from ten runs at Chepstow.
Which runner is making his first visit to Chepstow?
Emery Down makes his first visit to Chepstow today.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies