1:23 Nottingham
This Class 4 EBF Slip Anchor Maiden Stakes over the minimum trip at Nottingham brings together a small but interesting field of five two-year-olds on good ground. The KTB Fit scores point to Lady Branksome as the clear top pick on 61, with the next three clustered between 45 and 37, suggesting a race where proven ability and trainer/jockey course effectiveness could prove decisive. With the trip a first for the selection and ground unknowns for a couple of others, the contest carries plenty of question marks despite the modest overall standard.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with only medium confidence, largely because the two horses with front-running tendencies bring limited evidence. Caelum and Crimson Blaze are both noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, yet the small samples mean the early fractions could be modest. Lady Branksome and Viking Barbie are held-up types who produce their efforts late, so the key question is whether the race falls apart enough for the closers or if the prominent pair can dictate a rhythm that suits them on a sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lady Branksome KTB Selection61/100
Lady Branksome is a fair performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form across her three starts, finishing second on debut before running to a similar level when fifth and sixth since. Dropping back to 5f for the first time poses a fresh question at this trip, though she is competitive having been placed once from one run on good ground. The Michael Bell yard posts a 12% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.9 from 616 runs, while Callum Shepherd operates above expectations with a 17% strike rate and A/E of 1.36 from 96 rides here. Trainer and jockey stats therefore add layers of encouragement, as does the drop in class. Her held-up run style with late effort is based on limited evidence and low confidence, yet in a race with a tentative pace read she could be well positioned to strike if the leaders go hard enough early.
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2Caelum45/100
Caelum showed ability when placed second on debut over this trip, though the small sample leaves little else to go on and the going remains an unknown. Kevin Ryan’s record at Nottingham is modest at 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.76 from 316 runs, while Kevin Stott is slightly better on 12% from 129 rides with an A/E of 0.85. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, again with limited evidence and low confidence, he could set the tempo in a race where the pace shape is tentative. That early position may prove an asset on a sharp track if he can build on his debut promise, but several unknowns remain around stamina for the minimum trip and his effectiveness on good ground.
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3Viking Barbie45/100
Viking Barbie is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing in the first three on three of her five attempts over it. Stall one could prove handy on a sharp track and the yard’s 17% strike rate at Nottingham from a small sample of 12 runs adds some encouragement, even if the A/E sits at 0.76. She has been placed twice from two runs on good ground without winning, so the surface looks suitable. Callum Rodriguez has a 15% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.78 from 74 rides. Her held-up run style with late effort carries medium confidence, meaning she will look to come from off the pace in a race where the early fractions may not be strong.
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4Runaway Lucy42/100
Runaway Lucy showed little at a short price on her only start so far. The yard’s modest 7% strike rate at Nottingham from 209 runs with an A/E of 0.63 is a concern, as is Dale Swift’s 4% record here from 91 rides with an A/E of 0.41. With just one run on the board, one effort on good ground that brought no win or place, and no other meaningful clues, this is very much a watching brief.
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5Crimson Blaze37/100
Crimson Blaze is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form across six runs, including five defeats at this trip. The yard has a modest 8% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 0.53 from 51 runs, though William Buick is far more effective here with a 22% record and A/E of 1 from 214 rides. Stepping up in class, he has one run on good ground that brought no win or place. As a front-runner with limited evidence and low confidence, he could go forward but trip and ground both remain questions with such a light career.
KTB verdict
Lady Branksome stands out as the KTB Selection. She brings the highest Fit score, has shown fair form without sparkling, and drops in class while benefiting from a trainer and jockey combination that both perform at or above expectations at Nottingham. The step back to 5f is the main unknown, yet her held-up style could be well suited if the tentative pace materialises. Caelum represents the chief danger on the back of a promising debut second over the trip, while Viking Barbie’s consistency at the minimum and favourable draw cannot be ignored. Runaway Lucy and Crimson Blaze look up against it on what they have shown to date.
KTB Selection Lady Branksome
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:04 UTC, 1 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Lady Branksome | 2/1 | Midnite |
| Caelum | 5/4 | Midnite |
| Viking Barbie | 7/2 | Midnite |
| Runaway Lucy | 66/1 | Midnite |
| Crimson Blaze | 6/1 | Midnite |
This is the narrative read of the 1:23 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class?
Lady Branksome is dropping in class while Crimson Blaze is stepping up in class.
Who are the two horses with front-running tendencies?
Caelum and Crimson Blaze both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Nottingham?
William Buick has a 22% strike rate at Nottingham from 214 rides, ahead of Callum Shepherd on 17% from 96 rides.
How many times has Viking Barbie been placed at this trip?
Viking Barbie has finished in the first three on three of her five attempts over this trip.
What is the overall pace shape assessment for the race?
Pace tentative with medium confidence – a possible front-runner but on thin evidence.
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