What is Dale Swift's strike rate?

Dale Swift has won 80 of 1,014 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Dale Swift do best at?

Musselburgh by strike rate: 6 wins from 32 rides (18.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Dale Swift ride most for?

Seb Spencer, with 374 rides since 2022 — 37% of the total. That pairing has won 33 (8.8%).

What is Dale Swift's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 1,008 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Dale Swift

1,014 rides in the last 5 seasons · 297 individual horses

As at 19 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 17 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

80–1,014

Wins / Runs

7.9%

Strike rate

n=1,014

219 (22%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=1,008 · 0.87 incl. margin

−235.51

£1 level stake

n=1,014 at SP · −23.2%

£721k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.7%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 200 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (86 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,014 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 19 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Feb 35.7% when favourite Seb Spencer: 8.8% from 374 LTO winners: 15.1% Rides the favourite in 4% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Musselburgh (18.8%, n=32) and Wolverhampton (AW) (13.1%, n=183) — all clear of the rider's 7.9% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.1% (n=86, Fair A/E 1.05), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 2.7% (n=110, Fair A/E 0.57). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 6.3% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.39 and +30.50 to a £1 stake over 128 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Seb Spencer supplies 37% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.8%, A/E 1.07) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Class 3 — 0% over 48 rides, 7.9pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Betfred Ebor at York (Aug 2011, £130,725). The standout partner of the record: Meandmyshadow (GB) — 7 wins from 39 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Nov–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5%−2.9

n=280 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −105.42

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.1%+7.2

n=86 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −22.88

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6.3%−1.6

n=128 · A/E 1.39 · £1 +30.50

When favourite

35.7%

n=42 · A/E 1.33 · £1 +6.55

Big fields · 14+ runners

2.7%−5.2

n=110 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −69.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.9

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Musselburgh 18.8% vs 7.9% · n=32

With headgear back on 18.8% vs 7.9% · n=32

On last-time-out winners 15.1% vs 7.9% · n=86

In Class 3 0% vs 7.9% · n=48

At Wolverhampton (AW) 13.1% vs 7.9% · n=183

With Ivan Furtado 14.3% vs 7.9% · n=35

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 559 43 7.7% −168.62

Good 174 18 10.3% −8.55

Good to Firm 132 8 6.1% −3.34

Good to Soft 70 5 7.1% −16.25

Soft 69 5 7.2% −41.75

Heavy 10 1 10% +3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 183 24 13.1% +35.06

Southwell (AW) 182 10 5.5% −116.68

Newcastle (AW) 170 8 4.7% −70.50

Doncaster 60 6 10% +18.50

Catterick 56 7 12.5% −9.42

Redcar 48 4 8.3% −20.67

Thirsk 41 4 9.8% +43.00

Musselburgh 32 6 18.8% +50.50

Ayr 32 2 6.3% −11.50

York 29 1 3.4% −24.00

Beverley 27 0 0% −27.00

Carlisle 22 3 13.6% −2.92

Pontefract 19 1 5.3% −10.00

Nottingham 18 0 0% −18.00

Hamilton 14 0 0% −14.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 443 44 9.9% +0.30

Class 5 327 25 7.6% −53.63

Class 4 165 11 6.7% −103.18

Class 3 48 0 0% −48.00

Class 2 29 0 0% −29.00

Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 51 15 29.4% 1.14 −2.45

2nd–3rd fav 162 25 15.4% 0.96 −31.06

4th–6th fav 323 26 8% 1.03 −36.00

7th+ in betting 478 14 2.9% 0.96 −166.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Archduke Ferdinand (IRE) 30 3 6 22 Aug 26

Sense Of Worth (IRE) 24 2 6 2 Jan 26

King Of York (IRE) 23 3 11 1 May 25

Little Muddy (GB) 22 3 8 7 Jun 25

Crocodile Power (IRE) 21 4 11 21 May 26

Desert Dream (GB) 20 2 6 6 Oct 25

Kitten's Dream (GB) 20 2 7 2 Apr 25

Muddy Lynn (GB) 17 1 4 17 Dec 24

Shaw Park (IRE) 16 0 3 30 Jan 25

Visibility (IRE) 14 1 3 18 Mar 25

Bearaway (IRE) 13 0 2 20 Sep 24

Ghathanfar (IRE) 13 1 3 15 Jun 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 297 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

9975571110581010

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardSeb Spencer

37% of all rides
8.8% SR · A/E 1.07

TrainerRWSR£1

Seb Spencer 374 33 8.8% −42.91

Scott Dixon 251 19 7.6% −80.43

Alan Brown 75 7 9.3% +3.75

Tracy Waggott 67 5 7.5% −16.00

Philip Kirby 65 2 3.1% −46.00

Ivan Furtado 35 5 14.3% +33.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

304

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.58m

Prize money

2014

Best season · 45 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Moyenne Corniche (GB) — Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) York · Aug 2011 · Class 2

£130,725

Top Notch Tonto (IRE) — betfred.com Superior Mile (Group 3) Haydock · Sep 2013 · Group 3

£34,026

Indian Days (GB) — Betfair App For iPhone Handicap Goodwood · Jul 2010 · Class 2

£31,155

Notable horses

Meandmyshadow (GB) Victory March (IRE) Crocodile Power (IRE) Shawkantango (GB) Atrafan (IRE) Archduke Ferdinand (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kodiac (GB) 10.2% · 5–49

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,530 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.

Gutaifan (IRE) 9.5% · 4–42

Progeny have won 8.9% of 3,746 runs since 2008 (301 horses).

Zoffany (IRE) 17.6% · 6–34

Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,761 runs since 2008 (799 horses).

Oasis Dream (GB) 6.3% · 2–32

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,996 runs since 2008 (1,509 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 482. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.

Kingman (GB) 12.9% · 4–31

Progeny have won 14.5% of 7,467 runs since 2008 (775 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 958. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9.1% from 121.

Harry Angel (IRE) 10.3% · 3–29

Progeny have won 12.8% of 2,745 runs since 2008 (261 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.5% from 330.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,370 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,370 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 13 April 2005 to 2 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Oct 26 Ascot Suspicious Mindz (GB)T: Seb Spencer Colliers Business Rates Experts Classified StakesClass 3 · 8f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 10/1

01 Oct 26 Nottingham Perineighs (IRE)T: Seb Spencer Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 10th 40/1

01 Oct 26 Nottingham Runaway Lucy (GB)T: Brian Ellison Ebf Slip Anchor Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 5f · Good · 4 ran 4th 125/1

30 Sep 26 Catterick Sea The Power (FR)T: Seb Spencer Amstel Gallop Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 7 ran 6th 18/1

30 Sep 26 Catterick Vince Lombardi (GB)T: Seb Spencer Bet At racingtv.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 9th 50/1

25 Sep 26 Haydock Great Dream (GB)T: Seb Spencer Christopher Ward Watchmaking Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Soft · 11 ran 10th 80/1

23 Sep 26 Redcar Night Wolf (GB)T: Seb Spencer Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 12 ran 9th 25/1

19 Sep 26 Chester Top Juggler (IRE)T: Seb Spencer Kidsbank Chester Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Heavy · 10 ran 8th 10/1

17 Sep 26 Ayr Green Pursuit (IRE)T: Seb Spencer Idp Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 7/1

14 Sep 26 Thirsk Soca Star (IRE)T: Seb Spencer decronhorsecare.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 14/1

09 Sep 26 Redcar Sea The Power (FR)T: Seb Spencer racingtv.com/freetrial Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 8th 40/1

06 Sep 26 York Great Dream (GB)T: Seb Spencer Eboracum Security Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 11th 50/1

05 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Perineighs (IRE)T: Seb Spencer Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 25/1

05 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Janora (IRE)T: Seb Spencer Quinnbet Extra Place Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 200/1

04 Sep 26 Ascot Suspicious Mindz (GB)T: Seb Spencer Big Ascot Food & Wine Festival Classified StakesClass 3 · 7f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 18/1

02 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Muddy Nora (GB)T: Seb Spencer Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 40/1

01 Sep 26 Ripon G'Emmethegreenlite (IRE)T: Seb Spencer attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 12th 100/1

01 Sep 26 Ripon Top Juggler (IRE)T: Seb Spencer Ripon Yorkshire's Garden Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 9/1

26 Aug 26 Catterick Soca Star (IRE)T: Seb Spencer Berber Leather Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 7/2

22 Aug 26 Newmarket (July) Archduke Ferdinand (IRE)T: Seb Spencer Twyford Down Cutting Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Good · 13 ran 12th 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Dale Swift's strike rate?: Dale Swift has won 80 of 1,014 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Dale Swift do best at?: Musselburgh by strike rate: 6 wins from 32 rides (18.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Dale Swift ride most for?: Seb Spencer, with 374 rides since 2022 — 37% of the total. That pairing has won 33 (8.8%).
What is Dale Swift's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 1,008 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.