4:45 Ascot

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1Cranachan KTB Selection58/100

   Form -21421 · Ralph Beckett · Rossa Ryan

   Cranachan is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record of 21421 that includes a win at today's trip. He has already shown he handles this ground and arrives in form, though the yard's modest 8% strike rate at Ascot from a big sample suggests he will need to improve on that bare figure. The high data confidence from ratings and race history makes him one to take seriously. Ralph Beckett and Rossa Ryan team up with a combined record of 21% from 1106 rides and an A/E of 0.96. Stepping up in class from an OR of 88, he is held up and usually produces his effort late, though with limited evidence. He has 1 win from 1 on good ground and no previous course form.

2. 2Hot Fuss55/100

   Form 3/100- · Tom Dascombe · Pierre-Louis Jamin

   Hot Fuss is a useful performer who has shown up well at this track with two placed efforts from three runs. He drops back from 2m4f to a trip he has won twice from six attempts, which looks a sensible move, though the trainer's modest 6% strike-rate at Ascot tempers expectations despite the horse's solid course connections. From an OR of 92 he is dropping in class and is usually held up, producing his effort late with medium confidence. Tom Dascombe and Pierre-Louis Jamin have a 12% strike rate together from 337 rides with an A/E of 1.00. He has been placed once from five runs on good ground and has course form of 2nd, 3rd and 5th.

3. 3Must Believe54/100

   Form 451832 · George Baker · Jack Dace(5)

   Must Believe is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year and showed his best when placed over this trip last time. He has no experience at Ascot and has failed to place in three runs on good ground so far, though the trainer holds a solid 8% strike rate here from 121 runs. Stepping up in class from an OR of 77, he typically settles in midfield. George Baker and 5lb claimer Jack Dace have a 13% strike rate from their 8 rides together with an A/E of 1.43. His recent form reads 451832 and he has no course form on record.

4. 4Vaguely Royal47/100

   Form 336116 · Ian Williams · William Buick

   Vaguely Royal is a modest performer with a mixed record and only one run at this track where he finished 15th. He has dropped back in trip today having last run over 2m2f and holds a placed effort at this distance from four attempts. Ian Williams has a 9% strike rate at Ascot from 403 runs while William Buick is aboard. Stepping up in class from an OR of 73, he is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence. He has 2 wins from 11 on good ground with 4 places and his recent form reads 336116.

5. 5Just An Hour37/100

   Form 343341 · Rod Millman · George Wood

   Just An Hour is a modest performer who has been consistent at a lower level this year without winning often. He steps up in trip today having never gone beyond 1m6f so this is a fresh question, while the trainer's modest record at Ascot continues to limit expectations here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, his recent form is 343341 from an OR of 72.

6. 6Shipshape37/100

   Form 211253 · Bernard Llewellyn · Isobelle Chalmers(7)

   Shipshape is a fair handicapper with solid recent form including two wins and consistent placed efforts. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and has placed both starts at this trip, though the yard has a modest 0% strike rate from 33 runs at Ascot while the 7lb claimer is making her debut here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his recent form reads 211253 from an OR of 75.