Horse profile
Must Believe (GB)
23 runs · 11 courses · from Jul 2024
As at 25 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: GB, Ireland & France · 2005–present, updated daily
3 wins · Kempton (AW) & Southwell (AW)
Last run 2 Oct 2026 · 4th of 5
Last raced off OR 77
KTB Profile
Must Believe is 3 from 23 with all wins at Class 5 level. All three wins have come on the all-weather over 1m2f – 1m4f, two of them at Kempton. He ran off his career-high mark of 77 when fourth of five at Ascot in Oct 2026. The gelding usually races prominently.
Based on 23 archived runs · run-style from 19 commented runs since Aug 2024 · updated 25 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance
All wins on AW
All wins at Class 5
OR at career high
- 3–23Wins / Runs
- 13%Strike rate
- 11 (47.8%)Placed
- −2.00£1 level staken=23 at SP
- 1.08Fair A/E n=23 · 0.92 incl. margin
- 77Highest OR
- 37dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
Official rating77At career-high mark
77
67–77
KTB Speed and Rating
KTB Speed
Best recent Speed 99
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was. What this means →
Flat
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 25 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 17 | 104A | 88 | 8 runs · 104 / 92 |
| Good | 3 | 65C | 25 | — |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 89A | 83.5 | 1 run · — |
| Good to Soft | 1 | — | — | 1 run · — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 25 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 12 | 104A | 84.5 | 6 runs · 104 / 89 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 5 | 102A | 94 | 4 runs · 99 / 86 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 5 | 92B | 79 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 1 | — | — | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 23 figures from 23 runs · as at 10 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 19 analysed runs since Aug 2024
- Prominent 10 (53%) · 1 win
- Mid-division 4 (21%) · 2 wins
- Held up 3 (16%) · 0 wins
- Led 2 (11%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Sire
Progeny in our archive have won 11.1% of 3,606 runs since Jan 2008 (297 horses).
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 5 | 1 | 20% | +8.9 | — |
| Good to Firm | 341 | 43 | 12.6% | +1.5 | 0 from 2 |
| Good | 873 | 99 | 11.3% | +0.2 | 0 from 3 |
| Good to Soft | 435 | 56 | 12.9% | +1.8 | 0 from 1 |
| Soft | 697 | 71 | 10.2% | −0.9 | — |
| Heavy | 274 | 25 | 9.1% | −2 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 981 | 104 | 10.6% | −0.5 | 3 from 17 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 81 | 7 | 8.6% | −2.5 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 847 | 95 | 11.2% | +0.1 | 0 from 1 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 1,049 | 107 | 10.2% | −0.9 | 0 from 5 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 788 | 94 | 11.9% | +0.8 | 3 from 12 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 536 | 71 | 13.2% | +2.1 | 0 from 5 |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 232 | 22 | 9.5% | −1.6 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 63 | 2 | 3.2% | −7.9 | — |
| Over 3m | 10 | 1 | 10% | −1.1 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 25 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
Dam
No other produce in our archive. It holds racing in Great Britain, Ireland and France from 2005, so siblings racing elsewhere won’t appear here.
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 17 | 3 | 18% | +4.00 |
| Good | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Good to Firm | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Good to Soft | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 5 | 18 | 3 | 17% | +3.00 |
| Class 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Class 4 | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kempton (AW) | 7 | 2 | 29% | +7.50 |
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Goodwood | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Southwell (AW) | 2 | 1 | 50% | +4.50 |
| Ascot | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Haydock | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newcastle (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Yarmouth | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Newmarket | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 12 | 3 | 25% | +9.00 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
| 6f – 7f | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Dace | 3 | 1 | 33% | +4.50 |
| Hector Crouch | 3 | 1 | 33% | +3.50 |
| Paddy Bradley | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Tommie Jakes | 2 | 1 | 50% | +5.00 |
| Charlie Bennett | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Raul Da Silva | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Benoit de la Sayette | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Ryan Kavanagh | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Mason Paetel | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Alec Voikhansky | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Jack Callan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Saffie Osborne | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Benoit De La Sayette | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| David Egan | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visor | 11 | 2 | 18% | +2.50 |
| None | 9 | 1 | 11% | −1.50 |
| Cheekpieces | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 1 | 14% | +0.50 |
| 2025 | 11 | 2 | 18% | +2.50 |
| 2024 | 5 | 0 | 0% | −5.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · 7 runs | ||||||||||
| 02 Oct 26+28d | Ascot | Melbourne Cup Carnival Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race) Up with the pace early - pushed along 3f out then dropped away quickly - stayed on inside the final furlong - finished 4th | 4/5 | nk | 8-12 | 77 | 78C | 74B | Jack Dace | 13/2 |
| 04 Sep 26+23d | Kempton (AW) | Industry Leading In-play Markets At Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Qualifier) Settled into midfield after fighting for control early - crept into contention after three furlongs - pushed forward to challenge for the front two out - overtaken with a furlong left - drifted right and unable to reel in winner close home finishing second | 2/8 | 1½ | 9-4 | 75 | 99A | 77A | Jack Dace | 7/2J |
| 12 Aug 26+68d | Kempton (AW) | Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race) Settled handy early - hit the front 9f out and stayed there until overtaken 2f out - battled on inside final furlong for third | 3/12 | ½ | 9-3 | 75 | 79A | 79A | Benoit de la Sayette | 50/1 |
| 05 Jun 26+32d | Goodwood | Goodwood Horseracing Club Membership Apprentice Handicap (GBBPlus Race) Went straight to front early - lost command 4f out - dropped away with 3f left to run - well held at the finish | 8/9 | 11 | 9-7 | 76 | 65C | 61C | Ryan Kavanagh | 11/1 |
| 04 May 26+89d | Kempton (AW) | Injured Jockeys Fund Handicap Settled in the pack early - pushed along with 2f left - found a good turn of foot in the closing furlong - hit the front close home under pressure - prevailed by the narrowest of margins | 1/10 | 9-1 | 72 | 88A | 79A | Jack Dace | 13/2 | |
| 04 Feb 26+20d | Kempton (AW) | Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap Prominent - stirred into action 3f out - pushed forward to hit the front over 1f out - swiftly overtaken and found nothing more - dropped away inside the final furlong to finish 5th | 5/13 | 1½ | 9-4 | 73 | 90B | 77A | Mason Paetel | 11/2 |
| 15 Jan 26+26d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Curry And Racing Tonight Handicap Sent to front early - driven along and challenged for advantage 2f out - overtaken approaching final furlong then unable to keep tempo - dropped out of third close home to finish fourth | 4/7 | ½ | 9-9 | 74 | 94A | 69A | Hector Crouch | 4/1 |
| 2025 · 11 runs | ||||||||||
| 20 Dec 25+24d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Midnite, Building The Future Of Betting Handicap (Div 1) Handy early - pushed along with 2f left - closed on pace-setter entering last furlong then edged in front near line - overhauled by winner at the death to finish second | 2/10 | 1½ | 9-8 | 73 | 95A | 85A | Hector Crouch | 4/1 |
| 26 Nov 25+27d | Southwell (AW) | Free Tips Daily On AtTheRaces.com Ebf Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Handy near front - pushed to the front two out and edged clear inside final furlong - margin narrowed late but got the verdict | 1/11 | 9-9 | 69 | 104A | 86A | Hector Crouch | 11/2 | |
| 30 Oct 25+42d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Betfair Exchange Beacons Handicap Sat close to the pace early - driven and dropped back over 2f out then drifted left approaching the final furlong - kept trying but made no further headway to finish fourth beaten 3.5 lengths | 4/5 | ½ | 9-6 | 69 | 77C | 64B | Alec Voikhansky | 7/4 |
| 18 Sep 25+52d | Kempton (AW) | Try Unibet's New Acca Boosts Handicap Settled in the pack early - made ground wide with two furlongs left - pushed out and kept finding late inside final furlong - got up close home to win | 1/13 | 9-3 | 67 | 95B | 76A | Tommie Jakes | 6/1 | |
| 28 Jul 25+39d | Southwell (AW) | Download The At The Races App Handicap Settled in midfield off the rail - improved into contention approaching halfway - pushed along and shifted wide entering straight - hampered and checked over 2f out then held no threat to finish 7th | 7/11 | 4½ | 9-0 | 68 | 102A | 57A | Tommie Jakes | 9/2 |
| 19 Jun 25+6d | Lingfield (AW) | HighBet Ascot Free Bet Drop Handicap Settled in rear - nudged for stride past halfway - dropped away tamely to finish a distant 7th | 7/8 | 13 | 8-12 | 70 | 72C | 45C | Jack Callan | 11/2 |
| 13 Jun 25+21d | Goodwood | Bet Clever BetGoodwin Handicap Settled in a handy spot early - dropped to midfield - pushed along past the two furlong point - angled right approaching the final furlong then again close home - stayed on without reaching the front rank | 5/13 | ¾ | 9-9 | 70 | 65C | 81A | Saffie Osborne | 9/1 |
| 23 May 25+27d | Haydock | Betfred 'The Classic Bookmaker' Handicap Took a strong hold early - sat close to the pace until past 2f out - driven and drifted left approaching the final furlong - lost momentum inside the closing stages - held on for 3rd beaten 4 lengths | 3/8 | ¾ | 9-9 | 70 | 89A | 75A | Charlie Bennett | 5/1 |
| 26 Apr 25+30d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Book Hotel And Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap Took a strong hold early - clear in front until overtaken 7f out - eased back to third turning for home 6f out - pushed out to the outside inside the last two furlongs - powered home in the closing stages - moved up into second but denied by a short margin | 2/8 | nk | 9-6 | 69 | 83A | 78A | Charlie Bennett | 7/2 |
| 27 Mar 25+19d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Watch Live Racing At bet365 Handicap Settled at the rear - moved wider and advanced towards the middle of the field by halfway - dropped away when pressure applied rounding home and no threat thereafter | 6/9 | ½ | 9-5 | 71 | 74A | 69A | Benoit De La Sayette | 9/2 |
| 08 Mar 25+156d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Bet Boost At bet365 Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Held up at the rear early - driven and lost touch 3f out - responded to work through gap late to snatch third close home | 3/8 | 1½ | 9-7 | 70 | 81A | 69A | Raul Da Silva | 12/1 |
| 2024 · 5 runs | ||||||||||
| 03 Oct 24+16d | Newcastle (AW) | Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Handy early - shared front spot with 4f left before going for it under pressure once passed 2f out - kept battling at one speed - couldn't find more inside final furlong - finished 7th | 7/11 | nk | 9-7 | 72 | 77A | 67A | Raul Da Silva | 40/1 |
| 17 Sep 24+11d | Yarmouth | Get Raceday Ready Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) Travelled with plenty of enthusiasm in 4th early - asked for effort wide with 4f left and drifted left under pressure with 3f to run - dropped away soon after - finished well beaten last home | 6/6 | 7 | 9-7 | 76 | 25C | 64C | Paddy Bradley | 7/1 |
| 06 Sep 24+17d | Kempton (AW) | Racing TV/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Sat behind the front group early - moved left for room approaching 2f out - couldn't pick up under 1f out - stayed on late to snatch 3rd near the line | 3/13 | 4¾ | 9-4 | — | 92B | 77A | Paddy Bradley | 9/2 |
| 20 Aug 24+39d | Kempton (AW) | Unibet Support Safe Gambling Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1) Sat behind the front group - found space to make progress a furlong out - moved into second and kept going inside the final furlong - closed fast but denied by a whisker | 2/10 | nse | 9-7 | — | 79A | 83A | Paddy Bradley | 66/1 |
| 12 Jul 24 | Newmarket | Weatherbys British Ebf Maiden Stakes | 13/13 | 4 | 9-2 | — | 17C | 62C | David Egan | 100/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Must Believe won?
- Must Believe (GB) won 3 of 23 archived starts between 2024 and 2026, a strike rate of 13%. Placed 11 times in total (47.8% of starts).
- Who trains Must Believe?
- Must Believe (GB) is trained by George Baker, who saddled the horse on its most recent run on 2 October 2026.
- Who is Must Believe's sire?
- Must Believe (GB) is by Make Believe (GB) out of Dalhousie (GB), whose sire is Golden Horn.
- What going does Must Believe prefer?
- Must Believe (GB) has the best record on standard (aw) going: 3 wins from 17 starts (17.6%). Only going bands with at least three archived starts are read, so this is a direction rather than a settled preference.
- What is Must Believe's official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 77, from the run on 2 October 2026. That is also the highest on record.
- What is Must Believe's sire's record?
- Make Believe (GB)'s progeny in our archive have won 11.1% of 3,606 runs since Jan 2008 (297 horses), Flat and jumps together.