2:48 Hexham
This Class 3 handicap hurdle at Hexham over 2m48y on good ground brings together a compact field of seven, several of whom hold smart form for the level. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with four principals rated between 65 and 72, underlining a race where class, trip suitability and course records will all matter. Overall the numbers point to an interesting contest in which the uncontested lead promised by the pace shape could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will bowl along clear with little to no pressure in the early stages. Double Digits is the obvious candidate to take that uncontested lead given his front-running style, while the remaining six runners are all held-up types who will be produced late. The key question is whether the clear advantage of the uncontested lead will be enough for the leader to repel the late challengers on this sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Double Digits72/100
Double Digits arrives with a KTB Fit of 72 and holds an official rating of 114. This smart performer has finished second on both starts at Hexham and comes into the race in solid form after two placed efforts this year. He acts on good ground, recording two wins from six runs, and has won at this trip in the past. The horse tends to make the running or race prominently. Trainer Ann Hamilton has a 16% strike rate at Hexham from 129 runs with an A/E of 1.2, while jockey Danny McMenamin has a 16% strike rate at the track from 229 rides with an A/E of 1.15. He is stepping up in class today.
-
2Mr McLoughlan KTB Selection72/100
Mr McLoughlan is rated 72 on KTB Fit with an official mark of 118 and is the KTB Selection. This smart performer has won three times over today's trip. He steps up in distance today having last run over 1m7½f, while this is also his first run at Hexham. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late. First-time headgear is now applied. Trainer Adrian Keatley has a strong 40% strike rate at Hexham from 15 runs with an A/E of 2.43, while Brian Hughes has a 16% strike rate at the track from 800 rides with an A/E of 0.82. He is dropping in class.
-
3Moveit Like Minnie69/100
Moveit Like Minnie carries a KTB Fit of 69 and an official rating of 119. This smart performer has won four times over today's trip from 15 attempts. He drops back from 3m1f last time and holds a solid record on good ground with six wins from 23 starts. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late. This is his first run at Hexham for the Twiston-Davies team who have no recorded course stats here. Trainer and jockey combination shows a 17% strike rate from 241 runs with an A/E of 0.79. He is dropping in class.
-
4Banderas65/100
Banderas is rated 65 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 116. This smart performer has already won over this course and looks well suited by the step up in trip having been placed twice at this distance. He arrives in decent form after a recent win and boasts solid figures on good ground with two wins from six runs. The horse is usually held up and produces its effort late. The yard has a 17% strike rate at Hexham from 123 runs with an A/E of 1.15, while jockey Jonathan England has a 15% strike rate from 161 rides with an A/E of 1.02. He is stepping up in class.
-
5Winds of Winter63/100
Winds of Winter has a KTB Fit of 63 and an official rating of 110. This smart performer has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is solid enough with a string of placed efforts but he has been beaten in four runs since his last success and is now dropping back in trip. Trainer has a 10% strike rate here from 306 runs with an A/E of 0.94.
-
6Two Auld Pals50/100
Two Auld Pals is rated 50 on KTB Fit with an official mark of 108. This smart performer knows his way around Hexham, having won two of his four starts here. He steps up in trip today having last run over a mile and a half, though he has won twice at this distance in the past. On good ground he is one from 13 with four placings, while the yard posts a 15% strike rate from 47 runs at the track.
-
7Kaikoura43/100
Kaikoura has a KTB Fit of 43 and an official rating of 98. He is a useful performer on his best days and arrives in reasonable form after a solid fourth last time. He has shown he can be competitive on good ground and at this trip though he is still seeking his first win at either. The yard's modest 9% strike rate at Hexham from 288 runs with an A/E of 0.85 adds a note of caution.
KTB verdict
Mr McLoughlan is the KTB Selection. He is a smart performer who has won three times over today's trip, steps up in distance having last run over 1m7½f, and is dropping in class with the first-time headgear now applied. The strong 40% strike rate at Hexham for trainer Adrian Keatley from a small but meaningful sample gives plenty of encouragement on his first visit to the track. Double Digits, with his uncontested lead and course placings, Moveit Like Minnie with his four wins at the trip, and Banderas who has already won here represent the main dangers.
KTB Selection Mr McLoughlan
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:03 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Double Digits | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Mr McLoughlan | 2/1 | 7Bet |
| Moveit Like Minnie | 3/1 | 7Bet |
| Banderas | 5/1 | William Hill |
| Winds of Winter | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Two Auld Pals | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Kaikoura | 14/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 2:48 Hexham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hexham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hexham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Double Digits, whose front-running style and medium-confidence pace map read make him the clear candidate in a race shaped as a lone leader.
What is the significance of the first-time headgear on Mr McLoughlan?
It is applied for the first time on a horse that is dropping in class, stepping up in trip and making his Hexham debut for a yard with a 40% strike rate at the track.
How many wins has Moveit Like Minnie recorded at today's trip?
Four wins from 15 attempts at the distance, while dropping back from 3m1f last time.
Which runner has course-and-distance winning form at Hexham?
Banderas has won here from three starts and is well suited by the step up in trip having been placed twice at this distance.
What is the trainer strike rate at Hexham for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Adrian Keatley has a 40% strike rate at Hexham from 15 runs with an A/E of 2.43.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies