5:45 Newcastle (AW)
This Class 4 fillies' novice stakes over 1m5y at Newcastle on standard ground brings together a small but interesting field of six three-year-olds, most of whom are relatively unexposed. KTB's Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 61 and 43, reflecting a race where experience, pedigree and yard strength will all play their part. The top four in the KTB ranking contain the bulk of the credible claims, while the two outsiders bring more modest profiles and lower confidence readings.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with only medium confidence. Maneuver is the only horse with any noted tendency to make the running or race prominently, though that assessment rests on limited evidence. The other five runners are all held-up types who produce their effort late, which raises the key question of whether enough pace will materialise early on or whether the race could end up being run at a crawl, potentially favouring those delivered from off the pace at the right moment.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Star Mirage KTB Selection61/100
Star Mirage is a fair three-year-old who has shown mixed form this year, including a placed effort on his most recent start. He has been tried twice at this trip without success and now goes in first-time headgear. The yard has a 50% strike rate at Newcastle from a small sample of four runs and an A/E of 1.88, while Daniel Tudhope brings a 19% strike rate at the track from 606 rides and an A/E of 0.99. Dropping in class from an official rating of 79, the selection is held up and usually produces its effort late. With no previous runs on standard ground and no course form on record, the headgear becomes an important unknown in a race where the pace is expected to be modest.
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2Maneuver52/100
Maneuver showed useful promise when placed on both starts last season, including at today's trip. The yard have a strong 35% strike-rate at Newcastle from 130 runs and an A/E of 0.97, while Robert Havlin has a 27% strike rate at the track from 230 rides and an A/E of 0.95. With only two runs on the clock and limited overall data the horse remains open to improvement but needs to be taken on trust this time. Likely to make the running or race on the pace, Maneuver is unproven on standard ground and has no course form on record. The Gosden team’s healthy record at this venue makes this three-year-old a clear danger if the tentative pace shape plays into his strengths.
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3Walk In Provence49/100
Walk In Provence was placed second on debut over this trip at Wolverhampton last month. That run gives him something solid to build on and the yard's 15% strike-rate at this track from a big sample of 309 runs is respectable with an A/E of 1.03. The trip looks fine but with only one run on the board this remains a cautious read. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the Charlie Johnston-trained colt is unproven on standard ground and has no course form on record. Connor Beasley takes the ride with a 9% strike rate at Newcastle from 650 rides and an A/E of 0.75.
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4Always Sunny48/100
Always Sunny is a debutant for the Crisford yard who have a solid 21% strike rate at this track from 121 runs and an A/E of 0.85. Pedigree and sales background carry the bulk of the assessment here given the complete absence of racecourse form, with the horse being by St Mark's Basilica who has a 14% overall win rate from 572 runners. Data confidence remains low. Jason Hart has an 11% strike rate at Newcastle from 1283 rides and an A/E of 0.97. With no course win on record and no runs on standard ground, the three-year-old represents a yard that can ready one, but the lack of any public performance keeps the overall picture modest.
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5Noozhaa45/100
Noozhaa showed clear promise when second on debut over 7f. He now steps up to 1m for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a solid 24% strike rate at Newcastle from 374 runs and an A/E of 0.85, while Jack Mitchell has an 18% strike rate at the track from 402 rides and an A/E of 0.75. Usually held up, the three-year-old is unproven on standard ground and has no course form on record.
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6Lazy In Red43/100
Lazy In Red has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing third then well held last time. The yard has an 11% strike rate from 85 runs at Newcastle AW and an A/E of 0.86, while Greg Fairley has a 2% strike rate at the track from 47 rides and an A/E of 0.44. Dropping back to an untried 1m trip poses a fresh question and with just two runs on the board the overall picture remains low-confidence. Usually held up, the three-year-old is unproven on standard ground and has no course form on record.
KTB verdict
Star Mirage is the KTB selection. A fair three-year-old with a placed effort on his most recent start, he drops in class from an official rating of 79, tries first-time headgear, and benefits from a yard that has struck at a 50% rate at Newcastle from its small sample. The selection's held-up style should suit if the tentative pace shape fails to develop real early speed. Maneuver, with placed efforts at this trip last season and the strong Gosden record at the venue, is the most obvious danger, while Walk In Provence brings a solid debut second and Always Sunny represents an in-form Crisford stable that can unveil a useful prospect on debut.
KTB Selection Star Mirage
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:05 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Star Mirage | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Maneuver | 5/2 | 7Bet |
| Walk In Provence | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Always Sunny | 9/1 | 7Bet |
| Noozhaa | 11/10 | Bet365 |
| Lazy In Red | 150/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 5:45 Newcastle (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unexposed with placed efforts at today's trip?
Maneuver showed useful promise when placed on both starts last season, including at today's trip.
What is the trainer strike rate at Newcastle for the yard of the KTB selection?
Hamad Al Jehani has a 50% strike rate at Newcastle (AW) with an A/E of 1.88 from 4 runs.
Which runners are noted as usually held up?
Star Mirage, Walk In Provence, Noozhaa and Lazy In Red are all described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
How many previous runs has Always Sunny had?
Always Sunny is a debutant with a complete absence of racecourse form.
What question does the step up in trip pose for Noozhaa?
Noozhaa showed clear promise when second on debut over 7f and now steps up to 1m for the first time which asks a fresh question of him.
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