What is Donald Whillans's strike rate?

Donald Whillans has won 45 of 401 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.2% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Donald Whillans do best at?

Ayr by strike rate: 19 wins from 94 runners (20.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Donald Whillans?

Craig Nichol, with 119 runners since 2022 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (16%).

Is Donald Whillans in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Donald Whillans's Fair A/E?

1.13, from 401 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Donald Whillans

401 runners in the last 5 seasons · 38 individual horses

As at 27 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 4 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

45–401

Wins / Runs

11.2%

Strike rate

n=401

125 (31%)

Placed

1.13

Fair A/E

n=401 · 0.96 incl. margin

−132.15

£1 level stake

n=401 at SP · −33.0%

£416k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 80 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.13).

Deterministic profile computed from 401 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 27 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Apr 25.6% when favourite Craig Nichol: 16% from 119 Sends off the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Ayr (20.2%, n=94), clear of the yard's 11.2% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.3% (n=77, Fair A/E 0.20). Craig Nichol rides 30% of the entries and edges the yard's average (16% vs 11.2%, A/E 1.67) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (18.6%, n=97). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 47 runners, 11.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.23 across 52 runners (1.9% strike, −46.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Pallas Lord (IRE) — 10 wins from 67 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

1.3%−9.9

n=77 · A/E 0.20 · £1 −71.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−11.2

n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Debutants · first career start

12.5%+1.3

n=16 · A/E 2.56 · £1 +11.50

First-time headgear · true-first definition

8.3%−2.9

n=12 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −4.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

6.3%−4.9

n=16 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −10.00

When favourite

25.6%

n=39 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −8.74

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.1%−2.1

n=77 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −46.07

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 25.6% vs 11.2% · n=43

With C&D winners 22% vs 11.2% · n=82

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 11.2% · n=47

At Ayr 20.2% vs 11.2% · n=94

On Good going 1.9% vs 11.2% · n=52

Over 2m5f – 3m 18.6% vs 11.2% · n=97

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 175 21 12% −49.71

Flat 159 16 10.1% −78.02

Chase 39 6 15.4% −3.92

NH Flat 28 2 7.1% −0.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 116 16 13.8% −17.54

Good to Soft 89 12 13.5% +4.83

Standard (AW) 81 9 11.1% −49.02

Good 52 1 1.9% −46.50

Heavy 49 7 14.3% −9.92

Good to Firm 14 0 0% −14.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Ayr 94 19 20.2% +37.58

Newcastle (AW) 78 9 11.5% −46.02

Kelso 48 7 14.6% −9.04

Carlisle 44 2 4.5% −23.50

Musselburgh 30 2 6.7% −14.00

Newcastle 25 2 8% −13.50

Hexham 20 1 5% −14.50

Hamilton 14 0 0% −14.00

Perth 12 2 16.7% −2.17

Wetherby 11 0 0% −11.00

Redcar 7 1 14.3% −4.00

Catterick 6 0 0% −6.00

Haydock 4 0 0% −4.00

Thirsk 2 0 0% −2.00

Sedgefield 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 134 12 9% −68.92

Class 6 118 15 12.7% −42.52

Class 4 115 11 9.6% −31.79

Class 3 26 5 19.2% +2.58

Class 2 8 2 25% +8.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 48 14 29.2% 1.14 +0.59

2nd–3rd fav 84 17 20.2% 1.19 +0.26

4th–6th fav 122 11 9% 1.25 −32.00

7th+ in betting 147 3 2% 0.66 −101.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Pallas Lord (IRE)from Brian Ellison 67 10 26 12 Oct 26

Shoeshine Boy (IRE) 35 7 17 22 Oct 26

Naturalia (GB)from Rae Guest 31 3 12 23 Oct 26

See My Baby Jive (GB) 30 3 8 14 Jan 25

Nights In Venice (GB) 26 2 11 2 Apr 26

Cowboy Cooper (IRE) 22 3 8 2 Apr 26

Bollin Matilda (GB) 19 3 7 22 Apr 26

So Many Roads (GB) 17 2 4 25 Mar 26

Both Barrels (GB) 14 4 6 28 Feb 26

Freak Encounter (IRE)from Jamie Osborne 13 0 1 5 Jul 26

Eden Mill (IRE) 13 1 4 11 Feb 25

Enemy At The Gate (IRE) 11 0 6 24 Oct 24

All 38 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 38 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive; 31 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard; 34 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 2

Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

14191615902190372

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderCraig Nichol

30% of all rides
16% SR · A/E 1.67

RiderRWSR£1

Craig Nichol 119 19 16% +16.46

Jason Hart 38 7 18.4% −5.87

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

128

Archived wins

£1,000k

Prize money

2024

Best season · 14 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Keyboard Gangster (IRE) — Totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle Kelso · Apr 2018 · Class 2

£25,024

Bollin Matilda (GB) — Racing Post+ Ultimate Go North Brindisi Breeze Hurdle Series Final (Handicap Hurdle) (GBB Race) Musselburgh · Mar 2026 · Class 2

£20,812

Both Barrels (GB) — bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Kelso · Feb 2026 · Class 2

£15,609

Notable horses

Pallas Lord (IRE) Shoeshine Boy (IRE) Harry Flashman (GB) Hartforth (GB) Shades Of Midnight (GB) Stainsby Girl (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 12.5% · 10–80

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,944 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Valirann (FR) 20% · 7–35

Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,441 runs since 2008 (157 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7% from 342.

Sea The Moon (GER) 9.7% · 3–31

Progeny have won 12.1% of 4,555 runs since 2008 (502 horses).

Coach House (IRE) 10% · 3–30

Progeny have won 8.6% of 2,478 runs since 2008 (145 horses).

Midnight Legend (GB) 7.7% · 2–26

Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,309 runs since 2008 (494 horses).

Sulamani (IRE) 12.5% · 3–24

Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,245 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,458 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,458 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 January 2005 to 23 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Naturalia (GB)J: Shay Farmer William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 18 ran 3rd 25/1

22 Oct 26 Carlisle Shoeshine Boy (IRE)J: Craig Nichol Race Home With Genesis Homes Handicap Hurdle Race (Div I)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 12th 33/1

12 Oct 26 Musselburgh Pallas Lord (IRE)J: Greg Fairley Musselburgh Members Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 10th 80/1

08 Oct 26 Ayr Naturalia (GB)J: Shay Farmer Stella Artois Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 12 ran 4th 15/2

03 Oct 26 Redcar Naturalia (GB)J: Shay Farmer Prohibition Bar Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 4th 8/1

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Lazy In Red (GB)J: Greg Fairley Aalberts Integrated Piping Systems Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 300/1

30 Sep 26 Musselburgh Pallas Lord (IRE)J: Jason Hart Invades Day Party Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 11th 40/1

29 Sep 26 Ayr Runninman (IRE)J: Andrew Mullen Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Heavy · 11 ran 11th 80/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Runninman (IRE)J: Aiden Brookes Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 40/1

09 Sep 26 Carlisle Runninman (IRE)J: Greg Fairley Quickstep Supporting Andersons Autumn Flooring Offers Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 11th 50/1

09 Sep 26 Carlisle Lazy In Red (GB)J: Greg Fairley Lpd Maiden Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 11f · Good · 12 ran 10th 400/1

04 Sep 26 Haydock Naturalia (GB)J: Shay Farmer Betfair Supports Racing Welfare Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11.5f · Heavy · 12 ran 8th 10/1

26 Aug 26 Catterick Runninman (IRE)J: Aiden Brookes Celebrate National Racehorse Week Classified StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 13 ran 5th 66/1

19 Aug 26 Carlisle Runninman (IRE)J: Aiden Brookes North Lakes Energy - Harry Doyle Memorial Maiden Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 6th 40/1

19 Aug 26 Carlisle Lazy In Red (GB)J: Oisin McSweeney Kingmoor Park Properties Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 11f · Good To Soft · 3 ran 3rd 28/1

10 Aug 26 Ayr Naturalia (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Ladbrokes 'Free Rewards With Instant Spins' Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 10f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 3/1F

31 Jul 26 Newcastle (AW) Runninman (IRE)J: P J McDonald Harry Potter Droneart Show Classified StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 12th 25/1

25 Jul 26 Newcastle (AW) Naturalia (GB)J: Shay Farmer John Duncan Brack Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 4th 14/1

06 Jul 26 Ayr Naturalia (GB)J: Shay Farmer racingtv.com/freetrial HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good · 12 ran 4th 6/1

05 Jul 26 Ayr Freak Encounter (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Book The Sounds Of Summer Racenight Classified StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good · 10 ran 9th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Donald Whillans's strike rate?: Donald Whillans has won 45 of 401 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.2% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Donald Whillans do best at?: Ayr by strike rate: 19 wins from 94 runners (20.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Donald Whillans?: Craig Nichol, with 119 runners since 2022 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (16%).
Is Donald Whillans in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Donald Whillans's Fair A/E?: 1.13, from 401 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.