3:40 Gowran Park
The 3:40 at Gowran Park is a Grade 3 Like A Butterfly Novice Steeplechase over 2m4f on yielding to soft ground. A small but select field of six lines up, with KTB Fit Scores separating a clear top four from the remainder. The KTB numbers point to a high-class performer at the head of affairs, though several others bring placed course form, recent wins or strong yard support.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is medium, suggesting a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy will pay. With every runner in the race holding up and producing effort late, the early fractions are likely to be modest and the race could turn into a sprint for home from the penultimate fence. The key question is whether the principals can quicken off a slow gallop on this surface, particularly those with unproven or modest records on yielding to soft going.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Shadow Paddy KTB Selection70/100
Shadow Paddy is a high-class performer with a strong recent record of three wins from his last four starts. He steps up in trip today having already won twice at this distance from only four attempts yet has shown no win or place from two runs on yielding to soft ground. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate at Gowran from 31 runs with an A/E of 1.23 while the jockey is on 6% from 86 rides with an A/E of 0.76. Usually held up and producing its effort late, Shadow Paddy will be delivered with a late run in a race where the pace is expected to be modest. His official rating of 139 places him at the top of the weights and his recent form figures of 1P-111 underline his current confidence.
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2Kilbarry Saint55/100
Kilbarry Saint is a high-class performer with a solid record at this track, finishing placed on both previous visits. He has won over today's trip and was competitive when placed on his only run on yielding to soft ground, though he now drops back from 2m4½f. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate here from 22 runs while the jockey is on 8% from 131 rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence in that assessment, Kilbarry Saint should be produced at the right moment in a steadily-run affair. His official rating of 125 and recent form figures of 53123- suggest he remains a serious player.
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3Vicar Street52/100
Vicar Street has shown smart form in his five starts, winning a bumper and landing a maiden hurdle at this trip last year before a solid third in a stronger race on return. He drops back from 2m6½f today which looks a sensible move given his record at this distance. The yard have a strong 23% strike rate at Gowran from 1070 runs with an A/E of 0.99 while the jockey has no recorded rides here. Usually held up and producing its effort late, Vicar Street will be ridden for a late run in what is set to be a tactical race. His recent form figures of /12-31 and lack of experience on yielding to soft ground are the main points of interest.
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4D Art D Art48/100
D Art D Art showed improved form when winning over 2m7f last time and has already won at today's trip. He has course experience in his favour having scored here from two runs. The trainer's modest record at Gowran is a negative while the jockey fares better. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, D Art D Art will be kept towards the rear before making his move. His recent form figures of /P90-1 are respectable and he remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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5Bowensonfire47/100
Bowensonfire steps up in trip to 2m4f having been placed twice at the distance without winning. He has shown some ability on yielding to soft ground with two placed efforts from three starts. The trainer has an 11% strike rate here from 624 runs while the jockey posts 14% from 140 rides. Usually held up, his recent form figures of 07-423 indicate he is competitive at this level but has yet to score over fences.
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6Frankie John46/100
Frankie John arrives in decent nick after a clear-cut win last time and has already shown he can win at this trip. He steps up in distance again today having never tackled yielding to soft ground, so that side remains unproven. The yard and jockey both operate at a 5% strike rate here at Gowran. Usually held up, his recent form figures of 5548-1 show promise but he faces a stiff task in this company.
KTB verdict
Shadow Paddy is the KTB Selection. A high-class performer boasting three wins from his last four starts and two victories already at this trip, he has the best recent record and the highest official rating in the field. The steadily-run nature of the race should suit his held-up style, though his lack of success on yielding to soft ground cannot be ignored. Kilbarry Saint, with his strong course record and proven ability on the ground, is the most obvious danger, while Vicar Street's smart form and the yard's record at Gowran make him a live contender. D Art D Art's course win adds interest but the yard's modest record here is a concern.
KTB Selection Shadow Paddy
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest official rating?
Shadow Paddy on an OR of 139.
How many of the runners have previous course form at Gowran Park?
Two: Kilbarry Saint has been placed on both visits while D Art D Art has won here from two runs.
Which horse is proven on yielding to soft ground?
Kilbarry Saint has been placed once from one run on the surface while Bowensonfire has been placed twice from three starts; the remainder are unproven.
Who trains the selection Shadow Paddy?
Eoin Christopher McCarthy, who has a 6% strike rate at Gowran from 31 runs with an A/E of 1.23.
What is the expected pace shape of the race?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
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