8:30 Dundalk (AW)
A small but competitive Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Handicap over 1m4f on standard going brings together five useful performers, several with prior success at the venue. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 61 and 52, reflecting a race where proven course-and-distance ability and adaptability to the surface will carry significant weight. Poetic Sound tops the KTB rankings on the back of his strong recent efforts at the trip, though several rivals hold established Dundalk form that cannot be ignored.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with medium confidence, and Touch The Moon is the clear candidate to take up that role from draw three, given his front-running style. With the other four runners all tending to be held up and produce their efforts late, the leader is likely to enjoy an uncontested advantage that could prove difficult for the closers to overcome in the straight. The key question is whether any of the held-up brigade can quicken effectively enough off what may be a steady gallop to reel in the pacesetter.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Poetic Sound KTB Selection61/100
Poetic Sound is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip from five attempts and arrives in decent form having been placed over longer on his penultimate start. He holds an official rating of 98, is a 5-year-old drawn in stall two, and his recent form figures read -31700. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be ridden by Nicola Burns who claims 5lb for trainer G M Lyons. The combination has a 4/49 record here with an A/E of 0.62, while the trainer himself posts a 17% strike rate at Dundalk from 1584 runs and the jockey a 9% strike rate from 173 rides. He has never raced at Dundalk before and holds no experience on standard going, so both those elements remain untested.
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2Fixation60/100
Fixation is a useful performer who has already won over this trip and on this surface. Rated 97, the 4-year-old is drawn in stall one with recent form figures of 271019 that include a win and a second at this track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be ridden by Ben Coen for trainer J P Murtagh. The trainer and jockey combine for a 218/1655 record with an A/E of 0.85, the trainer posting an 11% strike rate at Dundalk from 655 runs and the jockey a 10% strike rate from 853 rides. He has a win from two starts on standard going and has won here from two runs, so the surface and venue hold no fears.
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3Touch The Moon56/100
Touch The Moon is a useful performer who has already won over this course and distance on standard ground. Rated 91, the 5-year-old is drawn in stall three with recent form figures of 124818. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and will be ridden by Chris Hayes for trainer William Durkan. The trainer and jockey combine for a 5/36 record with an A/E of 1.72 and positive LSP of +£36.00, the trainer recording a 6% strike rate at Dundalk from 90 runs while the jockey has a 9% strike rate from 2421 rides. He has a win from one start on standard going and has won here from one run, though he steps back up to 1m4f having been placed three times from five starts at the trip without winning.
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4Quatre Bras54/100
Quatre Bras is a fair sort who has won three times from eight runs at Dundalk and holds a solid record on standard ground with three wins and six places from eight starts. Rated 75, the 5-year-old is drawn in stall five with recent form figures of 446571; he steps up in trip today having been placed twice in three runs at this distance. Usually held up, he is ridden by Keithen Kennedy for trainer Richard John O'Brien who has an 11% strike rate at Dundalk from 264 runs and the jockey a 10% strike rate from 153 rides.
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5Tribal Star52/100
Tribal Star is a fair sort who has won twice at this track from nine runs and also has a win at today's trip on his record. Rated 82, the 5-year-old is drawn in stall four with recent form figures of 020049. Usually held up, he is ridden by Adam Caffrey for trainer Adrian McGuinness who has a 10% strike rate at Dundalk from 1989 runs and the jockey a 12% strike rate from 500 rides. He has shown fairly consistent form on the all-weather with two wins and eight placed efforts from 13 starts on standard going.
KTB verdict
Poetic Sound is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with two wins at this trip from five attempts, he arrives in decent form after being placed over longer on his penultimate start and is rated the best of the field on KTB Fit. Trainer and jockey combine for a solid record at Dundalk even if the rider's personal strike rate is modest, and he is expected to come home strongly from his held-up position. The main dangers are Fixation, who boasts a win and a second at the track plus proven effectiveness on standard ground from stall one, and Touch The Moon, who made all to win over course and distance on standard going and is likely to have the race to himself up front.
KTB Selection Poetic Sound
This is the narrative read of the 8:30 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Dundalk (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most proven at Dundalk on standard ground?
Fixation has won here from two runs with a win from two on standard, while Touch The Moon and Quatre Bras have each won over C&D on the surface.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
With a lone leader likely and four held-up runners, the uncontested lead could be hard for closers to peg back.
Which trainer has the strongest recent record at Dundalk according to the A/E figures?
William Durkan shows an A/E of 0.73 from 90 runs at 6%, while Richard John O'Brien records 0.95 from 264 runs at 11%.
Has Poetic Sound raced at Dundalk or on standard going before?
No, he has never raced at Dundalk before and holds no experience on standard going.
What is the combined trainer-jockey record for the selection's connections at this track?
G M Lyons and Nicola Burns combine for 4/49 (8%) with an A/E of 0.62.
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